China s 12th Five Year Plan, Energy Security and Domestic Stability

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China's 12th Five Year Plan. ContextChina's FYPs date back to the early 1950sMaps out strategies and goals for economic development, specific projects and reformsLess dirigste than before, now officially called

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China s 12th Five Year Plan, Energy Security and Domestic Stability

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1. Christopher M. Dent University of Leeds China’s 12th Five Year Plan, Energy Security and Domestic Stability

2. China’s 12th Five Year Plan Context China’s FYPs date back to the early 1950s Maps out strategies and goals for economic development, specific projects and reforms Less dirigste than before, now officially called ‘guidelines’ rather than ‘plans’ 12th FYP (2011-2015) Continuity of objectives from previous FYPs: greening of economic growth growth with greater social equity promoting domestic consumption improve social infrastructures and safety nets foster emerging high-tech sectors, e.g. solar … more emphasis on sustainable development

3. China’s 12th Five Year Plan: Key Issues for Energy and Climate Change CC Related Targets and Policies Context: CO2 emissions, tons per capita: China 4.9, EU 9.1, US 18.9 Policies: Improve energy efficiency laws + standards, energy-saving market mech-anisms (inc. new taxes), establish carbon markets, improve emission monitoring systems, new energy-efficient transport, limit growth of energy-intensive sectors Targets: By 2015: coal’s share - 70% to 62%, 17.3% reduction in energy-intensity (20% target met in last plan) By 2020: wind/solar/biomass: 200GW, nuclear 80GW, hydro 380GW (20% of total energy demand); 40-45% reduction in energy-intensity (CO2 per GDP unit)

4. China’s 12th Five Year Plan: Key Issues for Energy and Climate Change Green Energy Sector Development Part of a broader programme of high-tech industrial policy 7 strategic industries for ‘clean’ development: new gen IT, energy-saving and environment protection, renewables, biotech, high-end equipment, new materials and new-energy cars China’s Provinces ‘Rural modernisation’ and developing new energy infrastructure and production in China’s poorer provinces New engines of growth for the Chinese economy?

5. GDP nominal p/capita, US$ 2009 Richest – Shanghai Municipality (11,361), Beijing Municipality (10,070), Tianjin Municipality (9,136), Zhejiang (6,490), Jiangsu (6,475), Guangdong (5,965) Poorest – Guizhou (1,502), Gansu (1,879), Yunnan (1,975), Tibet (2,216), Guanxi (2,316)

6. Key Drivers in China’s Energy Security Maintaining Dynamic Momentum High level energy inputs required to keep high economic growth rates, albeit more socially equitable and e-sustainable Economic development as both a mechanism for further reducing poverty in China and source of geopolitical power Reducing Supply Risk China’s increasing dependency on imported energy: diversification of energy partners domestic coal still viewed as more supply risk averse Renewables, nuclear and strategic oil reserve development also to help mitigate this risk

7. Key Drivers in China’s Energy Security

8. China’s Fast Emerging Renewable Energy Sectors Wind Energy China’s wind energy capacity doubles annually over 2005-2009 2005: 1.2GW capacity 2010: 41.8GW (now the world’s largest, overtaking the US last year) Over 50 Chinese wind turbine producer firms, three in the world top 10 Rate of sector expansion has far exceeded the Chinese govt’s expectations Still huge potential for further sector expansion

9. China’s Fast Emerging Renewable Energy Sectors Solar Energy This sector is also growing rapidly in China… Now around 500 firms producing PV cells, China has four of the world top 10 producers Past emphasis on export, now on increasing domestic SP capacity However, domestic SP capacity is still very small (0.2GW in 2009) Plans to hit 2.0GW by end of this year

10. Green Energy Investment in China and Europe (US$ bn) 10

11. Concluding Points Under the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015), China will continue to raise its investment across a number of green energy sectors At the same time, China will maintain its burgeoning demand for oil, coal and gas, and faces a number of structural challenges in improving its energy efficiency levels China’s ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ view on climate change Positive signs ahead… recent developments in US-China clean energy diplomacy expect future enhancement of EU-China dialogue on climate change?

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