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ECMWF Users Meeting June 15, 2006

Benefits of the full ECMWF product set at a commercial weather provider [dr. Wim van den Berg, meteorological research department]. ECMWF Users Meeting June 15, 2006. Overview. Summary of current use of ECMWF Model data Fields from the Deterministic and other Models

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ECMWF Users Meeting June 15, 2006

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  1. Benefits of the full ECMWF product set at a commercial weather provider[dr. Wim van den Berg, meteorological research department] ECMWF Users Meeting June 15, 2006

  2. Overview Summary of current use of ECMWF Model data Fields from the Deterministic and other Models Applications of the Deterministic and other Models Applications of data from MARS archive Recommendations ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  3. Summary of current use of ECMWF Model data Changes in use of ECMWF fields since maximum license fee • worldwide original gaussian fields • 00 and 12 utc runs (MOS12 and MOS00) • early delivery system (MOS12 in evening) • 1.2.2006 high resolution and 3h fields (+3 ... +72) Current flow and use of ECMWF data: • 70-80 GB/day • processed and interpolated - near real time except for EPS - to a resolution of (0,25-)0,4-0,5-1,0(-1,5) degrees depending on customer and application needs • ECMWF model data is seen as our basic (most reliable) forecasting tool, but for comparison and multimodel approach we also use UKMO-GFS-HiRLAM data. • ECMWF model data and its derived products are used throughout the Meteo Consult Group (Netherlands, UK, Germany, Belgium and other). ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  4. Quality of ECMWF temperature forecasts (USA)based on dec.2005 verification of (Multimodel) MOS

  5. Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (1) Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees) • 00 and 12 utc runs, incl 06 and 18 utc analysis fields • +3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe • surface (17 elements) • pressure levels 1000-200 hPa (8 elements) • model levels 91-82 (boundary layer, 4 elements) • 30-35 GB/day Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees) • 00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members • +6 (+6h) +240h; full globe • surface (11 elements) • pressure levels 850-925-500 hPa (1-2 elements) • 35 GB/day ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  6. Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (2) Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees) • +3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe • surface (10 elements) • 2 GB/day Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,5→1,0 degrees) • 00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members • +12 (+12h) +240h; full globe • surface (6 elements) • 1 GB/day ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  7. Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (3) Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,125 degrees • 50+1 members • D5-D32; full globe • surface (11 elements) • pressure levels 500 hPa (1 element) • 4 GB/week Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees) • 40 members • D1-D180; full globe • surface (8 elements) • pressure levels 925 and 500 hPa (1-2 elements) • 4 GB/month Data from MARS archive (special projects) ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  8. Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (1) Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees) • interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps) • interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps) • Derived products with emphasis on (severe) weather warnings: (in)stability parameters and weather codes Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees) • interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps) • interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps) • Derived fields like 10% risk and averages Applications: • MCMOS2004, which will be replaced by Multimodel MOS 2006 • Special MOS forecasts (wind energy, road/rail conditions) • Automatic fronts ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  9. 31 May, 2006: risk of snow at 1000m in the Alps (background: model orography)model derived WW (fp +18) observed weather

  10. Risk of thunderstorms:model derived WW and SFUK observations Left: 17-05-2006 (fp +21) Right: 21-05-2006 (fp +18)

  11. Forecast maps for pigeon flyers Right: wind at 70m (level 89)Left: significant clouds,model derived weather

  12. ECMWF EPS average maps for 7 June, 2006D8 forecast D2 forecast

  13. Multimodel MOS TX forecast for California(background: direct model output MX2T6 and model orography)

  14. Local ECMWF MOS wind (energy) forecast,compared with direct model output (fp +15)

  15. Experiments with automatic fronts

  16. Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (2) Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees) Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,5→1,0 degrees) • Derived fields like 10% risk and averages Application: • Nautical MeteoBase (multimodel approach with coupled wind-wave algorithms) ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  17. ECMWF EPS risk areas(compared with direct model output of surface pressure and 10FG6) Left: 10% highest gusts (kts) 8-06-2006 (fp +78) vrf.: 58 kts and 7m! Right: prob. sign. sea/swell > 2.5m 8-06-2006 (fp +78)

  18. Nautical meteoBase and EPS (sign. sea/swell) analysis: 4-5m!

  19. Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (3) Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,125 degrees Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees) Application: • Development of weekly/monthly tendency forecasts for energy and agriculture. ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  20. ECMWF EPS & Monthly Forecast: daily T2m (March 2006 – cold, and May 2006 – warm/cool)

  21. Applications of data from MARS archive • research projects and hindcast studies (downscaled ERA40 wind to detect discontinuities and trends in local wind speed observations) • consultancies (MM5 studies) • extension and updating of MOS system • other statistical post processing (downscaling of model fields to customer specified grids) ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

  22. Downscaling to arable land (JRC: CGMS System)case TX 1-07-2003, Oper.Model 0,4° left and Seasonal Model 1,875° right interpolation CGMS 25x25km terrain statistical interpolation

  23. Simulated effect of projected harbour extension in Dubai (MM5 27→9→3→1km runs with ECMWF boundaries)

  24. Recommendations • Emphasis on early delivery of 00utc products (most customers need their updates in the morning before 09 lt (07 utc in summer) • MARS products and ECMWF Catalogue similar • Hindcast or reforecast data available for at least 1 year soon after a major change in model (resolution, levels) to enable quick MOS adjustments • Web access to non-Grib data and experimental products like EFI charts and Tropical Cyclone Tracks ECMWF Users Meeting 2006

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