Strategic planning at a project scale

1. Strategic planning at a project scale Conceptual Models

2. Seeing your project clearly ConservationTarget Threats Interventions

3. Simple version of reality Car moves forward Release clutch Put car in gear Engine starts Starter motor Turn key in ignition Fuel flows to engine Press foot on pedal

4. Conceptual Model Goal ConservationTarget Conservation Target Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Intervention Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Intervention

5. Divide to keep simple Goal Goal ConservationTarget Conservation Target Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Intervention Intervention Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Intervention

6. Goal Goal Preserve ecosystem function and viable populations of all wildlife in the Apolobamba region Goal Conserve wildlife and their habitat in the Mamiraua landscape over the long-term Goal Conserve biodiversity in Belize’s mangrove forests

7. Conservation Targets ConservationTarget Forest habitat within the park remains unfragmented ConservationTarget The density of jaguar recovers to levels comparable to Cockscomb, Belize ConservationTarget Viable populations of black howlers are conserved across the Peten

8. Direct Threat Habitat Loss Species depletion Pollution Invasion of exotic species Threat (Direct) Unsustainable logging Threat (Direct) Housing development Threat (Direct) Oil spill Threat (Direct) Expansion of water lily Threat (Direct) Unsustainable hunting

9. Indirect Threat Management Capacity User awareness and interest Policies, laws, regulations Threat (Indirect) No zoning regulations Threat (Indirect) Management needs of wildlife unknown Threat (Indirect) Inadequate law enforcement Threat (Indirect) Policy promotes road building Threat (Indirect) Conservation impacts unknown

10. Interventions Intervention Law enforcement Intervention Land mapping & zoning Intervention Applied research Intervention Policy reform Intervention Staff training Intervention Fence repair

11. Process Threat (Direct) ConservationTarget Threat (Indirect) Goal ConservationTarget Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct)

12. Process Threat (Direct) ConservationTarget Threat (Indirect) Goal ConservationTarget Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct)

13. Process Goal ConservationTarget Conservation Target Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Intervention Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Intervention

14. Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Direct) Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Threat (Indirect) Reverse Process Goal ConservationTarget Conservation Target Intervention Intervention Intervention

15. Conceptual Model Goal Conserve wildlife and their habitat in the Pastaza region of Ecuador over the long-term ConservationTarget Maintain present abundance of armoured catfish in the Bobonaza river within Sarayaku territory ConservationTarget Maintain present density of collared peccaries in Sarayaku territory Threat (Indirect) Hunting zones not enforced Threat (Direct) Pesticide and dynamite fishing Threat (Direct) Overhunting by Jivaro colonists Threat (Indirect) Colonists unaware of overhunting, believe shaman are hiding the game Threat (Indirect) Decline in wild ‘barbasco’ abundance Threat (Indirect) Community guards not assigned to hunting zone enforcement Intervention Plant family gardens of ‘barbasco’ fish poison Intervention Outreach to colonists to raise awareness Threat (Indirect) Community labor focused on crop protection from agoutis Intervention Community council discussion of pesticide and dynamite fishing Intervention Study options to reduce rodent damage to crops Intervention Research link between crop protection and hunting control Intervention Involve community in wildlife population monitoring & research

16. Goal Conserve wildlife and their habitat in the Putumayo landscape over the long term ConservationTarget White-lipped peccary populations remain at present densities and distribution ConservationTarget Native landcover will not decrease from present levels within the National Park ConservationTarget Giant otter populations expand into 50% of all class 2 rivers by 2020 Threat (Direct) Unsustainable hunting Threat (Direct) Unsustainable fishing Threat (Direct) Farming and Ranching Threat (Direct) Logging Threat (Direct) Dieoffs from oil pollution Threat (Indirect) Park borders not enforced Threat (Indirect) Anarchic colonization Threat (Indirect) Unplanned roads Threat (Indirect) Insecure land tenure Threat (Indirect) Oil industry unregulated Threat (Indirect) Park borders not marked Intervention Land titling Threat (Indirect) Weak mgmt capacity Intervention Gov. capacity Threat (Indirect) Unclear jurisdiction Intervention ID contradictions in law Intervention FCUNAE capacity Intervention Baseline research on wildlife Intervention ONHAE capacity Threat (Indirect) Lack of planning capacity Threat (Indirect) Lack of planning info Intervention Monitor human use Intervention Socio-economic research Intervention Est. NP Mgmt committee Intervention NP Mgmt plan

17. Working group instructions • Working group (6-8 people) • Mix of project and non-project staff • One facilitator with experience creating conceptual models • Help project team to model their project • Model is simpler version of reality not recreation of reality • Focus only on key components not all components • Be prepare to come back to the group and describe the key components of your model and to discuss whether the process was useful • Remember this exercise is very brief and is only to brainstorm a first draft of a project conceptual model that will need to be reviewed, revised and refined over time

18. Working group instructions Steps • 2:00 hrs conceptual model building • Goal – 5-10 minutes • Conservation targets – 10-20 minutes • Direct and Indirect threats – 20-40 minutes • Causal chains & networks – 30 minutes • Interventions – 20 minutes • Attach cards to flip-chart paper • Take a Digital Photo!