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Valuing Environmental Resources: A Constructive Approach (Alternative Title: Valuing Nature and Its Protection: Psychological Perspectives). Paul Slovic [email protected] September,2006. A Wandering Tale

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Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Valuing Environmental Resources:A Constructive Approach(Alternative Title:Valuing Nature and Its Protection: Psychological Perspectives)

Paul Slovic

[email protected]

September,2006


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

A Wandering Tale

The psychological complexity of values and preferences and their resulting lability (instability)

Empirical studies: From preference reversals to preference construction

A method for constructing quantified values (if you must)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

The Measurement Problem

Measurement of physical qualities (e.g., weight, distance) requires the satisfaction of description invariance and procedure invariance. Measures of preference systematically violate both of these fundamental requirements.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

2. Procedure Invariance

Different (but equivalent) measures for eliciting preferences should lead to the same preference ordering, just as different but equivalent measures of heaviness—for example, placing two objects on opposite sides of a pan balance to see which is heavier versus measuring each object separately on a scale—should yield the same ordering of weight.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

(like choice)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

(like rating, matching, or pricing)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

  • Preference measures often violate procedure invariance.

  • Object A may be clearly preferred over object B under one method of measurement (e.g., choice), while B is clearly preferred under a different but presumably equivalent measurement procedure (e.g., matching or pricing).

  • This fact has significant implications for the valuation of environmental resources and many other goods as well.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Violation of Procedure Invariance:

Early Studies

Preference Reversals 1971-1973

P bet35/36 win $4.00 1/36 lose $1.00 3.86 EV

$ bet11/36 win $16.00 25/36 lose $1.50 3.85 EV

Many Ss choose the P bet but attach higher $ values (buying and selling prices; cash equivalents) to the $ bet.

(Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1971 and 1973)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

A body of data and theory has been developing within psychology which should be of interest to economists. Taken at face value the data are simply inconsistent with preference theory and have broad implications about research priorities within economics. The inconsistency is deeper than the mere lack of transitivity or even stochastic transitivity. It suggest that no optimization principles of any sort lie behind even the simplest of human choices and that the uniformities in human choice behavior which lie behind market behavior may result from principles which are of a completely different sort from those generally accepted. This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to discredit the psychologists’ works as applied to economics.

-Grether and Plott, 1979, p. 623


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Criticism of Lichtenstein and Slovic Studies:

1) Misspecified incentives

2) Income effects

3) Indifference not allowed

4) Confusion and misunderstanding

5) Unsophisticated subjects

6) Experimenters were psychologists


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Needless to say the results we obtained were not those expected when we began this study. Our design controlled for all the economic-theoretic explanations of the phenomenon which we could find. The preference reversal phenomenon which is inconsistent with the traditional statement of preference theory remains. It is rather curious that this inconsistency between the theory and certain human choices should be discovered at a time when the theory is being successfully extended to explain choices of nonhumans.

-Grether and Plott, 1979, p. 634


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

The one theory that we cannot reject…is…the least satisfactory since it allows individual choice to depend upon the context [i.e., response mode] in which the choices are made.

Grether and Plott


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Reactions to Grether and Plott:

More attempts to make reversals disappear.

Some modifications of choice theory axioms.

About 400 citations of Grether and Plott in the literature.

Preference reversals continually demonstrated

—except in some aggressive arbitrage situations.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

This review has attempted to show how preference reversals fit into a larger picture of information-processing effects that, as a whole, pose a collective challenge to preference theories far exceeding that from reversals alone. These effects seem unlikely to disappear, even under rigorous scrutiny.

-Slovic and Lichtenstein, 1983, p. 603


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

We urge economists not to resist these developments but, instead, to examine them for insights into the ways that decisions are made and the ways that the practice of decision making can be improved.

-Slovic and Lichtenstein, 1983, p. 603


The blossoming of preference reversals

The Blossoming of Preference Reversals

  • Choose X; also reject X (Shafir, 1993)

  • Ratings of value  prices  choices

  • Wide range of stimuli

    - new products

    - ice cream

    - job candidates

    - job offers

    - air quality

    - salaries

    - punitive damage awards by juries

    - countries in which to live (income distribution)

    Etc.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Construction of Preference: The Broader Perspective Emerges

The reality of preference reversals has gradually become accepted, even among economists (see, e.g., Camerer, 1995; Starmer, 2000; and Seidl, 2002) and most efforts today by economists and others are rightly attempting to discover the conditions that allow preference instability to exist in important settings outside the laboratory.

Something significant has been occurring in the world of preference reversals. Slowly, the study of reversals has metamorphized from a curious phenomenon observed with simple gambles in laboratory settings to a method for documenting a broad, encompassing view of human behavior that has come to be known as “the construction of preference.”


The construction of preference published last week

The Construction of Preference(published last week)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

The thesis of preference construction is that we often do not know our own values and must construct them “on the spot,” using not only our knowledge, feelings, and memory, but also many aspects of the current environment, including how the preference question is posed and what type of response is required.


Some elements of preference construction

Some elements of preference construction:

  • Editing

  • Elimination by aspects

  • Prominence effects

  • Framing

  • Dominance structuring

  • Choice bracketing and mental accounting

  • Reason-based choice

  • Miswanting

    • Decision Utility, Predicted Utility, Experienced Utility

    • Focalism

    • Immune Neglect

    • Duration Neglect


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Elements of Preference Construction (cont.):

Contingent weighting

Distinction bias

Lay rationalism

Reliance on defaults

Affect

Evaluability

Value elicitation has barely begun to address the challenges posed by preference construction


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Preference Reversal Between Joint and Separate Evaluations

Work by Chris Hsee and Colleagues

Whereas traditional preference reversals involve different types of responses (e.g., choices and prices), differences in response modes (e.g., joint evaluation–JE–vs. separate evaluation–SE) also produce reversals.

JE  SE due to evaluability factors (dictionary study) or other causes.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

  • Irwin et al. (1993) found that, in JE, people were willing to pay more for improving the air quality in Denver than for improving a consumer product such as a VCR, but in SE, WTP values were higher for improving the consumer product.

  • Kahneman and Ritov (1994) found that, in JE, people would contribute more to programs that save human lives (e.g., farmers with skin cancers), but in SE, they would contribute more to programs that save endangered animals (e.g., dolphins)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Hsee and Zhang (2004) demonstrate that, in JE, people overpredict the differences that different values of an attribute (e.g., different salaries) will make to their happiness in SE. This is called distinction bias.

Predicted utility  experienced utility.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2003


Tom sawyer and the construction of value

Tom Sawyer and the Construction of Value

Dan Ariely

George Loewenstein

Drazen Prelec

(in press)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

The apparent orderliness in . . . choices, their stability for a given individual, and the generally correct directional response to changing incentives, encourages the belief that the choices are firmly rooted in personal likes and dislikes—in fundamental values.

We suggest, in contrast, that correct directional responses to changing incentives do not provide strong support for fundamental valuation, but can follow from the fact that people try to behave in a sensible manner when it is obvious how to do so.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Modern economics assumes that exogenous consumer preferences interact with ‘technologies’ and initial endowments to produce equilibrium states of the economy—prices and production levels. This analysis falls apart if preferences are themselves influenced by the very equilibrium states that they are presumed to create.

By posting a price for a new product, for instance, a firm invites consumers to consider whether they would purchase at that price and so replicates the anchoring manipulation as conducted in our experiments. If prices and other economic parameters function like public anchors, then consumer tastes no longer exist independently of prices but are endogenous to the economy.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

When Web Pages Influence Choice:Effects of Visual Primes on Experts and NovicesNaomi Mandel and Eric J. JohnsonJournal of Consumer Research, 2002

This article extends the idea that priming can influence preferences by making selected attributes focal. Our on-line experiments manipulate the background pictures and colors of a Web page, affecting consumer product choice. We demonstrate that these effects occur for both experts and novices.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Evaluating the Attractiveness of a Bet

We would like you to indicate how attractive the prospect of playing the

following bet is to you.

The bet is

7/36 to win $9.00.

This means that there are 7 chances out of 36 that you will win the bet and receive $9.00 and 29 chances out of 36 that you will win nothing.

Visualize a roulette wheel on the left with 36 numbers along the circumference. If a ball lands on any of the 7 numbers between 1 and 7 inclusive, you win $9.00. If it lands on numbers 8-36, you win nothing.

  • Response modes

  • 1. Pricing: buying price, selling price, cash equivalent

  • 2. Choice: e.g., gamble vs. sure gain (e.g., $2)

  • 3. Attractiveness rating


Strategic equivalence bet preference

Strategic Equivalence:Bet Preference

  • Play the bet you chose

  • Two bets will be selected randomly: Play the bet that

    • had the higher cash equivalent (price)

    • had the higher attractiveness rating

or

or


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Attractiveness Rating


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Preference Reversals:

People choose bets with higher probabilities of winning but smaller payoffs and also rate these bets as more attractive

But they assign higher buying and selling prices to bets with lower probabilities of winning larger payoffs.

Example:


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

A conjoint study showed that rated attractiveness was influenced far more by probability then by payoff even though respondents thought they were weighting both attributes about equally.

Payoff

Pr

obab

i

l

i

t

y


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

A Compatibility Explanation

Probability maps easily onto the 0-20 attractiveness scale

Payoff is less easily mapped: e.g. how attractive is $9?

Perhaps adding a small loss would make payoff more compatible (e.g. more precisely mapped into the response) and then be given more weight

(see e.g. Mellers, Richards, & Birnbaum

1992: Distributional theories of impression formation)

A “mutant” bet was created to enhance attractiveness:

7/36 win $9

Became:

7/36 win $9

29/36 lose 5¢


Attractiveness of simple gambles

Gamble 1.7/36 chance to win $9

Otherwise win nothing

Gamble 2. 7/36 chance to win $9

29/36 chance to lose 5¢

Mean attractiveness

(0-20 scale)

9.4

14.3

Attractiveness of Simple Gambles


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Choice Responses


Enter affect

Enter affect:

  • A valenced quality (e.g., goodness or badness) associated with a stimulus

  • Affect is one of many elements in preference construction (but a powerful one)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Information

  • Affect conveys meaning upon information

  • Without affect, information lacks meaning and will not be used in judgment and decision making

  • Affect is a key ingredient of rational behavior

  • Affect sometimes leads to poor decision making

Affect

Meaning


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Evaluability

Chris Hsee (University of Chicago)

“To say that an attribute is hard to evaluate . . . means that people do not know whether a given value on the attribute is good or bad . . .


Attributes of two dictionaries in hsee s study

B

A

27 (39)

A

24 (39)

B

19 (39)

20 (38)

Mean WTP values for Dictionary A and Dictionary B. The numbers in parentheses indicate numbers of participants

Attributes of Two Dictionaries in Hsee’s Study

Source: Adapted from Hsee (1998)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

An Affect Account of the 5¢ Loss Effect

Probability is evaluable.

7/36 is a poor chance.

Payoff is less evaluable.

How good or bad is $9?

Adding the 5¢ loss makes $9 “come alive with feeling” and it then becomes weighted in the judgment.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

Condition

A (9, 0)

B ($9,- 5¢)

C (9, +5¢)

Attractiveness (0-20)

7.2

12.8

11.8

Affect for $9

-4 (very bad)

to +4(very good)

0.4

1.8

1.0

Affect for 0, -5¢, +5¢

-1.5

0.4

0.3

Results: April 2003

  • $9 is most positive when paired with the 5¢ loss (Condition B)

  • the 5¢ loss is rated more positively than +5¢ and 0

  • Affect for $9 predicts attractiveness ratings – but highest predictability is in Condition B

  • Affect for “the other outcome” predicts attractiveness only in B (-5¢): liking for –5¢ predicts in positive direction


What have we learned from the gambles

What Have We Learned from the Gambles?

the importance of contextual factors in determining affect and preference

the fact that meaning, utility, and weighting of even a very familiar and “well-understood” monetary outcome such as $9 is not fixed, but depends greatly on these contextual factions


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

D

2

Asymmetric Dominance

Affect Account

Z makes X

“look good”

X

Z

Y

D

1

Adding Z to the set of options

increases the probability that

X will be selected over Y.


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

(Psychology & Marketing, 1999)


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

The Bigger Picture: Converging Views

Images Affect Behavior

  • Psycholinguistics (Osgood – 1952)

  • Connotative meaning of words dominated

  • by evaluative (good/bad) dimension.

  • Learning Theory (Mowrer – 1960)

  • Behavior is guided and controlled by

  • conditioned emotional reactions to images.

  • Neurology (Damasio – 1994)

  • Thought is made largely from images,

  • broadly construed to include perceptual and

  • symbolic representations. Through learning,

  • images become “marked” by positive and

  • negative feeling states (Somatic Markers).

    • A negative SM linked to image is “cause for alarm”

    • A positive SM is a “beacon of incentive”

  • Social Psychology (Epstein – 1994)

  • Dual Process Theories of Cognition


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

There is no dearth of evidence in everyday life that people apprehend reality in two fundamentally different ways, one variously labeled intuitive, automatic, natural, non-verbal, narrative, and experiential, and the other analytical, deliberative, verbal, and rational.

Seymour Epstein; 1994, p. 710


Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

  • Some Elements of the “Affect Story”

  • Evaluating gambles

  • Destination preferences (vacations, jobs, retirement)

  • Risk perception/communication (dangerousness)

  • Marketing/advertising/promotion

    • names, labels, images, packaging

  • Protective measures/insurance/life saving

  • Stigmatization of places, products, technologies

  • Investment judgments and decisions

  • Punitive damage awards

  • Youth smoking


  • Intuitive toxicology main result

    Intuitive Toxicology — Main Result

    Many people lack dose-response sensitivity for exposure to chemicals that can produce effects that are dreaded, such as cancer (high affect).

    If large exposures are bad, small exposures are also bad.


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    Terrorism and Probability NeglectCass R. SunsteinThe Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 26(2/3); 121-136, 2003

    • People are prone to . . . probability neglect, especially when their emotions are intensely engaged. Probability neglect is highly likely in the aftermath of terrorism. People fall victim to probability neglect if and to the extent that the intensity of their reaction does not greatly vary even with large differences in the likelihood of harm. When probability neglect is at work, people’s attention is focused on the bad outcome itself, and they are inattentive to the fact that it is unlikely to occur.


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    Strong Affect Distorts Valuation

    Value

    Gain

    Value functions based on calculations (dotted line) and based on feeling (solid line). The x-axis of the function is the scope of a stimulus, and the y-axis is subjective value. Source: Hsee & Rottenstreich.


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    Much behavioral research has been devoted to illustrations of choices that violate the logic of the economic model. The implied claim is that people do not have preferences, in the sense in which that term is used in economic theory. It is therefore fair to ask: if people do not have economic preferences, what do they have instead?

    …Statements of WTP are better viewed as expressions of attitudes than as indications of economic preferences.

    The core of an attitude is a valuation, which assigns to the entity an affective value that can range from extremely positive to extremely negative.

    (Kahneman, Ritov, and Schkade, 1993)


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    Valuation: Insensitivity to scope

    Desvousges et al. (1992) asked separate groups of participants how much they would donate to save 2,000, 20,000, or 200,000 migrating birds from drowning in uncovered oil ponds. The mean responses were $80, $78, and $88 respectively.

    Kahneman et al. (1999) argue that these results could be explained by the notion that these questions evoke a mental representation of a prototypical incident, perhaps an image of an exhausted oil-soaked bird and that respondents decide how much to donate based on their affective reactions to this image.


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    Defining Value

    If values are constructed during the elicitation process in a way that is strongly determined by context and has profound effects on the resultant evaluation, we should take a deliberate approach to value construction in a manner designed to rationalize the process.


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    Key Concept: The Construction of Preference

    Extensive research in human judgment and decision making indicates that people often do not hold values that are well defined in monetary units. Unless the items valued are simple and familiar—and most environmental goods are neither—individuals will construct values during the elicitation process, based on the context that is provided.


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    • The underlying assumption of the approach to be discussed in this article is that people have strong feelings, beliefs, and values for many things that are not sold through markets. However, people’s cognitive beliefs about these values typically are not numerically quantified and, most importantly for CV, are not represented monetarily.

    • The fact that people are not used to thinking about environmental goods in monetary units suggests that a CV approach must function as a kind of tutorial, building the monetary value as it elicits it. We therefore view a CV survey as an active process of value construction (Tversky, Sattath, & Slovic, 1988), rather than as a neutral process of value discovery.


    Valuing environmental resources a constructive approach alternative title valuing nature and its protection psycholo

    • Thus, we believe, the designers of a CV study should function not as archaeologists, carefully uncovering what is there, but as architects, working to build a defensible expression of value.

    • In this article, we first argue that CV methods need to be changed to accommodate the constructive nature of environmental preferences. We then propose criteria to guide the selection of a defensible environmental-values-elicitation method. Next, we examine the possibility of developing a new CV method based on techniques derived from multi-attribute utility theory and decision analysis.


    A constructive method multi attribute utility theory

    A Constructive Method:Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

    • Structure the problem

    • Explicit, comprehensive mixture of all components of value

    • Consult technical experts and affected citizenry

    • Attributes (effects on genetic diversity, tourist values, etc.)

    • Subattributes—scenic beauty

    • Measures of subattributes—number of dead fish/acres of beach


    A constructive method multi attribute utility theory cont

    A Constructive Method: Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (cont.)

    2. Assess utilities

    • 0-100 scales (minimum/maximum)

    • Allow non-linearity

    • Assess relative weights for scales

      3. Calculate total value (on 1 or perhaps several dimensions)

      4. Perform sensitivity analysis


    Advantages of maut cv

    Advantages of MAUT/CV

    • Accomodates the multidimensionality of value

    • Integrates market and non-market values

    • Lessons embedding

    • Asks the right question—how valuable is this (not WTP)?

    • May reduce “irrelevant” affect (experiential/System 1)

    • Aids careful thought (analytic/System 2)

    • Open to scrutiny and debate


    Case studies using constructed preference methods

    Case studies using constructed preference methods:

    - Gregory, R., & Failing, L. (2002). Using decision analysis to encourage sound deliberation: Water use planning in British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,21, 492-499.

    - Gregory, R.S., & Keeney, R.L. (2002). Making smarter environmental management decisions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 38, 1601-1612.

    - Keeney, R. L., & Gregory, R. (2005). Selecting attributes to measure the achievement of objectives. Operations Research, 53(1), 1-11.

    - Trousdale, W., & Gregory, R. (2004). Property evaluation and biodiversity conservation: Decision support for making hard choices. Ecological Economics, 48, 279-291.


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