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SFEI LOOKING BACK : LOOKING FORWARD. The RMP has always been composed of a diverse (odd ?) set of individuals. SCIENTISTS. ENGINEERS. INDUSTRY. ENVIRONMENTALISTS. SUMMARY FIRST RMP ANNUAL MEETING “IT’S BEEN A LOVE FEST”. (Steve Ritchey: SF RWQCB).

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sfei looking back looking forward
SFEI LOOKING BACK : LOOKING FORWARD

The RMP has always been composed of a diverse (odd ?) set of individuals

15 years later sf bay national model
15 YEARS LATERSF BAY : NATIONAL MODEL

(Sañudo-Wilhelmy et al., 2004. Environmental Science & Technology)

the problem elsewhere
THE PROBLEM - ELSEWHERE

Literature Survey

metals in US estuaries

1975-2002

Results

only 83 published articles

no data ~ 1/2 US estuaries

Only long term metal studies

SF Bay

Most studies in other estuaries being done by RMP alumni

Sañudo-Wilhelmy et al., 2004

rmp alumni conducting estuarine studies elsewhere
RMP ALUMNI * CONDUCTING ESTUARINE STUDIES ELSEWHERE

East Coast:

Sergio Sañudo * Stony Brook

Mark Wells Maine

Greg Cutter * ODU

John Donat ODU

Gulf Coast:

Gary Gill * Texas A&M

Bill Landing Florida State

Far East Coast:

Kuria Ndung’u * Sweden

* incomplete listing

* still involved in SF Bay-Delta studies

rmp alumni regulating estuarine studies
RMP ALUMNI * REGULATING ESTUARINE STUDIES

Priya Ganguli SF RWQCB

Peter Kozelka US EPA

Jon Phinney NOAA

Ignacio Rivera US Navy

Doug Steding Supreme Court*

* incomplete listing

* circa 2010

the problem in sf bay 150 years of pollution 15 years of rmp data
THE PROBLEM IN SF BAY150 YEARS OF POLLUTION 15 YEARS OF RMP DATA*

Gold Rush

Mercury Mines

Golden Gate

Red Lead

Silver Estuary

Industrial Discharges

Urban Estuary

Periodic Table

* prenascent RMP data collection began in 1989

mercury in sf bay
MERCURY IN SF BAY

SFEI Summary Time Series Data

other problems with sf bay
OTHER PROBLEMS WITH SF BAY

Physical Complexity Hydrologic Complexity

rmp data quantify temporal changes ag pb in the south bay 1989 2000
RMP DATA QUANTIFY TEMPORAL CHANGESAg & Pb in the South Bay (1989-2000)

Dissolved Ag:

40% decline

Dissolved Pb:

no decline

Total Ag:

70% decline

Total Pb:

40% decline

Squire et al., 2002. ES&T

rmp data enable projections
RMP DATA ENABLE PROJECTIONS

Cooke et al., URS & Monismith et al., Stanford

Schubel et al., 2003

rmp data model limitations
RMP DATA MODEL LIMITATIONS

Small data set

Limited spatial coverage

Assumptions of constancy in an inconstant world

Flegal et al., 1991

It is safer to interpolate than extrapolate

emerging concerns
EMERGING CONCERNS

Population growth

water demands

contaminant inputs

Urbanization

surface runoff

Negative sediment budget

contaminant re-exposure

Global warming

reduced fresh water flows

reduced sediment flows

Sewall and Sloan, 2004, JGR

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