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Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific

Washington DC, 11 October 2011. Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific. Roberto F. Aguilera. OBJECTIVES. To present projections of the future energy mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) To discuss effects of energy policy

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Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific

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  1. Washington DC, 11 October 2011 Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific Roberto F. Aguilera

  2. OBJECTIVES • To present projections of the future energy mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) • To discuss effects of energy policy • To assess the availability of natural gas

  3. Methodology

  4. Asia Pacific Population and Consumption

  5. Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Reference) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review

  6. Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 1) POLICIES: • Gas price setting • Coal subsidies • Restrict foreign investment Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review

  7. Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 2) POLICIES: • Environmental (e.g. taxes on fuel, emissions, subsidies for NGVs,…) • Deregulation, privatization • Consistency across borders • Nuclear restrictions Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review

  8. Asia Pacific H/C Ratio Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review

  9. Asia Pacific Gas Consumption

  10. USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) • USGS (2000) divides Asia Pacific into 290 provinces • Evaluated 77 provinces for known + undiscovered gas quantities

  11. USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) 6. Tarim Basin 3. Greater Sarawak Basin 2. Kutei Basin 5. Ganges-Br. Delta 4. Malay Basin 1. Northwest Shelf

  12. Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) Model • Used to estimate volumes natural gas in previously unassessed provinces • Unlike other models, VSD is not based on an assumed distribution (e.g. Pareto or lognormal)

  13. VSD(Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

  14. VSD(Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

  15. VSD(Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

  16. VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

  17. Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

  18. Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Cumulative Production (264 TCFG)Source: BP (2011) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

  19. Distribution of Gas Endowment by Country TOTAL: 2,240 TCFG Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

  20. Asia Pacific Gas Supply Cost Curve Source: BP (2011) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011b), WPC

  21. SHALE GAS Source: Aguilera et al. (2008), World Petroleum Congress

  22. SHALE GAS TECHNOLOGY: HYDRAULIC FRACTURING Source: American Petroleum Institute (2010)

  23. AUSTRALIAN GAS RESOURCE PYRAMID Source: Geoscience Australia (2010)

  24. AUSTRALIAN SHALE GAS BASINS Source: Geoscience Australia (2010) Source: adapted from USGS (2000)

  25. WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: Ripple (2011), Australian Ambassador’s Speaker Series

  26. WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: International Energy Agency (2009)

  27. CONCLUSIONS • Natural gas in Asia Pacific more abundant and economicthancommonlyassumed • Appropriate energy policy needed to access potential with minimal environmental impact • Gas will have positive impact on energy security, environment, economic growth

  28. Washington DC, 11 October 2011 Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific THANK YOU r.aguilera@curtin.edu.au

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