Leaded Gasoline in Kenya Daniel Atz. History of Leaded Fuel. Abridged Recent History of Kenya. Fundamental Changes Needed.
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History of Leaded Fuel
Abridged Recent History of Kenya
Fundamental Changes Needed
Kenya has a complicated economic history. For a long time Kenya had a very low annual economic growth rate. As recent as 2005 the rate shot up above 5%, still below the 7% needed to help develop a country. However, Kenya has always been seen as a stable country in Africa with a large middle class, relative to the rest of Africa. Many international businesses base their Africa operations in Kenya’s capital Nairobi, including Google, General Electric, and Cisco. Many international organizations are also based out of Nairobi, including the UN Environmental Protection agency. However, this stable status is often overshadowed by government corruption. The December 2007 election was largely seen as rigged, resulting in weeks of nationwide rioting and ethnic violence. The violence lead to the deaths of over 1,000 people and the internal displacement of 100,000s of people. A coalition government formed between the two major political parties involved in the election eventually calmed down the rioting. However, it is not yet statistically clear how badly the rioting coupled with the international economic downturn will affect Kenya’s economy.
Shell and Total (originally Chevron) own a 50% stake in the Kenya Petroleum Refinery. The Kenyan government owns the other half. This refinery refines most of the gasoline in Kenya. In 2003, the head of the refinery asked the government for US$265 million to update the refinery to mass-produce unleaded gasoline. However, the funding has yet to arrive and updates have yet to take place due to governmental wrangling. Further, people are reluctant to switch to unleaded fuels even though most vehicles can easily use it. Using leaded gasoline in older vehicles is costing around US$72 million per year in repairs due to engine corrosion.
Epidemiologists say that urban areas are the worst when it comes to lead pollution, and for that matter, most other forms of pollution. With high-density traffic, lots of pollutants come out into the air. Kenya now has 935,000 private automobiles on its roads. Over half of them are located in Nairobi, a city of 4.3 million people that only 45 years ago was a city of 350,000. With the extreme pollution associated with so many cars, especially with many running on leaded gasoline, it then makes sense that Nairobi is a very polluted, and lead poisoned, city.
A 2005 study done by Kenyatta University (a top university in Kenya) found soil lead levels in the Nairobi Central Business District at 265,918 μg/kg. The World Health Organization suggests a level under 110. Milk found at the same location contained 40 μg/L, with the suggested level at 20. The study went on to test blood lead levels from 4 school or medical sites around Nairobi and one lead occupational site. 253 people took part in Nairobi, with 41% aged from 3-20. The results found 55% had blood levels under 4.9μg/dl, 20% from 5 to 9.9, and 25% above 10 μg/dl. One sample had as high as 65 μg/dl, found at the occupational site. The researchers then went to a small village and did blood level tests on 55 people. They found the highest at 4.1 μg/dl. In Nairobi, the highest non-occupational blood lead levels were found in those less than 10 years of age. Of those, 23% were above 10 μg/dl. The study attributes such high levels in the densely populated city to leaded gasoline.
Another study was done in Kisumu, an urban area by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Here, tap water was found to have 140 to 260 μg/g, above the WHO suggest 10 μg/g. Fish were found to have 1 to 3.3 μg/g, above the suggested .2 μg/g.
Leaded Gasoline Reform Appeals from the United Nations
Despite the UN Environmental Program (UNEP)’s claiming since the 1980’s that it only takes US$.02 per liter to take the lead out of gasoline, many countries continue to ignore the call. UNEP also claims the cost to the environment and public health directly outweigh the two-cent fee. To this day, around 30 states continue to use leaded gasoline such as Cuba and Mongolia, and many more do so unofficially. One area that UNEP targeted in particular to eliminate leaded gasoline usage was Sub-Saharan Africa, including Kenya. In June 2001, 25 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa met in Dakar, Senegal and signed the Dakar Declaration of 2001 to phase out leaded gasoline. This was followed up upon in 2002 by the developed world in 2002 at the World Summit on Sustainable Development. By 2003 some countries started eliminating leaded gasoline.
In that same year UNEP announced that now 90% of the world’s gasoline was unleaded and that they hoped that the Dakar Declaration would be carried out in full by 2008. At the same time, they announced more advanced economies in the area, including Kenya, had pledged a deadline of 2005-06 to eliminate leaded fuels. With these dates set, it came as a surprise that in December of 2005 UNEP sent out a press release claiming that only one more country, South Africa, needed to complete the conversion to only unleaded fuels. The release claimed the conversion would be done by the beginning of the year. Thus, by 2006 Sub-Saharan Africa would be leaded gasoline free. Their goal had been met.
Kenya Facts at a Glance
The Republic of Kenya is an Eastern African country that is 582,650 square kilometers or around twice the size of Nevada. Its capital is Nairobi and the country is split into 7 provinces. The country has a population of 37,953,840 people based on a July 2008 estimate that takes into account the effect of a 6.7% AIDS rate among adults in the country. This implies a lower life expectancy, higher death rates, lower population growth rate, and changes in distribution of population by age and sex. The actual population growth rate is 2.758% and the infant mortality rate is 56 deaths per 1,000 live births. Life expectancy at birth is 56 years for both sexes. This compares to the United States where the population is 303 million, the population growth rate is 0.883%, and the infant mortality rate is 6.3/1000. Males are expected to live 75 years and females 81 years, and the AIDS rate is 0.6%.
Kenya’s official languages are English and Kiswahili. 85.1% of the population is literate and 6.9% of the GDP is spent on education. This compares to 99% literacy rates in the USA and 5.3% of the GDP on education. Kenya’s currency is the Kenyan Shilling, which is converted at the rate of 79 per US$1. Kenya’s gross domestic property by purchasing power parity is US$61.2 billion, with a per capita amount of US$1,700. The unemployment rate in Kenya is 40%. The GDP (PPP) of the USA is $13.78 trillion, the average per capita income is $46,000, and unemployment rates were set at 4.6% (2007). However, interestingly enough, the distribution of wealth in Kenya is rated at GINI 44.5, which is extremely close to the USA’s distribution of wealth at 45.
According to Kenya’s The Standard newspaper, virtually none of the Sub-Saharan African countries have truly eliminated leaded gasoline, especially Kenya. There are several factors behind this:
Kenya consumes on an average day 50,000 barrels of gasoline, compared to 2 million in France and 20.5 in the USA. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in Nairobi on 12/04/2008 is US$3.73. Even though prices have recently dropped in the USA, the price difference reflects different fuel taxation structures and transportation hardship. The two major gasoline corporations in Kenya are France’s Total with 35% of the market and Shell Kenya (a subsidiary of Shell and BP International) with 22% of the market. Total recently acquired Chevron Kenya, which decided to leave the market. According to competition rules, Total now has too large of a percent of the market. Shell’s 22% market share gives it 131 retail service stations; Total had only 100 service stations before acquiring Chevron’s large stake in Kenya.
Total and Shell refer to the different types of fuel as “unleaded” vs. “normal” and offer both at most of their stations. Shell’s information relating to leaded versus unleaded gasoline makes it very clear to its Kenya based customers that unleaded gasoline does cost more, but many people and other countries argue it is better to use unleaded. The major domestic Kenyan gasoline corporation, Kenol has 11% of the market with 74 stations. Kenol is very upfront about its views on unleaded gasoline. They offer unleaded at many, but not all, locations.
Kenya has several issues to work out with leaded gasoline. First off, they should admit that their government failed to stop production and use of leaded gasoline. Then their government needs to design a campaign to end usage. This campaign should include programs of public awareness about lead poisoning, pollution, and the bad affects on car motors and the associated repair costs. Then, a new timetable needs to be set up to phase out leaded gasoline. Unlike in Europe and the United States where lead was phased out of gasoline over decades, Kenya does have to condense the time for reasons of public safety. Their best plan is to enact greater fuel taxes on leaded gasoline. With their strong Revenue Authority, this is absolutely possible. However, government wrangling is keeping it from happening. All Kenya needs to do is observe how other countries did a tax phase out of leaded gasoline. In Hong Kong, leaded gasoline was made a dollar more expensive and within a month use was down 50%. However, the government also must cope with such a low GDP per capita. It will be hard for people to replace older cars that need leaded gas, and a system of compensation should be put in place for that.