RA VI Clips Workshop. Verification of Probabilistic Forecast. J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie S. Mason - IRI. The Exercise. identify the forecasts of El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña years. L. E E E E E.
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RA VI Clips Workshop
Verification of Probabilistic Forecast
J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie
S. Mason - IRI
E E E E E
0 % 80 % 20 %
100 % 0 % 0 %
20 % 60 % 20 %
20 % - 33 %
The frequency of La Niña forecasts is 18 / (18*5) = 0,20
The observed frequency of La Niña events is 6 / 18 = 0,33