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MONETARY ECONOMICS

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MONETARY ECONOMICS

Monetary Macroeconomic Modeling

Setting the stage

- Key indicators of Macroeconomic Performance
- Definition

- Measurement

- Stylized Facts

- Macroeconomic Policy Objectives
- Stabilization

- Long-run Growth

- Monetary Macroeconomic Framework

- Gross Domestic product (GDP): a measure of all currently produced final goods and services in a given period.
- Unemployment: the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labor force.
- Inflation: a rise in the general level of price.
These are three key economic variables that policy makers try to influence….

Business Cycle captures cyclical variations of actual output around potential output.

These cyclical variations are costly. Expansion is normally related to inflation while contraction is related to unemployment.

The worst scenario is when contraction is accompanied by inflation, termed as STAGFLATION.

Stabilization policies aim at dampening the magnitudes of cyclical variations

Growth policies aim at increasing the trend in output over long periods of time.

- Consumer price index: the retail prices of a fixed market baskets of several thousand goods and services purchased by households
- Producer price index: the wholesale prices of approximately 3000 items
- GDP Deflator: the prices of all goods and services currently produced.
The rates of changes in these prices are measures of inflation

- Unemployment: Unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor forces
- Types of unemployment:
- Frictional: in-between jobs

- Structural: changes in economic structure

- Cyclical: due to cyclical downturns

- What matters is cyclical unemployment
- Full employment: when unemployment equals frictional + structural unemployment

- Fluctuations are costly. But all economies have ridden through the cycles.
- It seems that cyclical fluctuations are inevitable but they can be dampened.
- Inflation-unemployment trade-offs
- Highly fluctuating cycles may dampen long-term growth
- Issues:
- How to dampen the cycles?

- How to accelerate long-term growth?

- Requirement:
- A need to understand theories of fluctuations and

long-term growth.

- Goods Market: Market for the production (supply) and the aggregate demand for those goods.
- Money Market: Market for Money Demand and Money Supply.
- Factor Markets: markets for the factor inputs in the production of goods and services.
- OPEN-ECONOMY: markets that link the sales and purchases of goods and services between nations (Exports and Imports).

SR AS

- IS Function
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G

CY-T > 0; Ir < 0; Both G and T assumed

exogenous and NX = 0

- LM Function
M/P = L(Y, r); Ly > 0; Lr< 0

- AS Function
Y = f(P); fp > 0

These are basic functions with no elements of uncertainty and expectations

- IS: a graph of all combinations of Y and r that result in goods market equilibrium.
- Equilibrium in Goods Market
Output (Y) = Aggregate Expenditure (E)

- Components of Aggregate Expenditure
- Household Expenditure (C)

- Firm Expenditure (I)

- Government Expenditure (G)

- International Sector (X – M)

- Y = C + I + G + (X-M)

- Goods Market Equilibrium
- Total Differentiation
- Express dr as a function of the remaining expressions

The IS function is negatively sloped…

Justification: A fall in interest rate motivates investment and, thus, planned expenditure. To restore equilibrium, output (Y) must increase.

Slope: depends on marginal propensity to consume and Interest sensitivity of Investment.

Intercept: containing the factors that shift the curve.

Intercept Term

Slope

- A graph of all combinations of Y and r that equate the supply and supply for real money balances
- Assuming that the stock of money supply is a policy variable (i.e. influenced by monetary instruments), we state this equilibrium as:

- Market Equilibrium
- Total Differentiation
- Express dr as a function of the remaining terms

LM Curve is positively sloped.

An increase in income raises money demand. With money supply fixed, interest rate must increase to restore equilibrium in the money market.

The SLOPE of the LM curve depends on the income and interest rate sensitivities of money demand.

Intercept: Changes in money appears in the intercept. It leads to shift in LM function.

- Function
Y = f(P)

- Total Differentiation
dY = fPdP

fP= 0 (Classical)

fP> 0 (Keynesian)

The foundation of AS function is the assumption of wage stickiness or imperfect information in the labor market.