1 / 35

The Human Importance of the Intelligence Explosion

"Intelligence explosion:". Concept invented by I. J. Good (famous name in Bayesian statistics) in 1965.Hypothesis: The smarter you are, the more creativity you can apply to the task of making yourself even smarter.Prediction: Positive feedback cycle rapidly leading to superintelligence.. Eliezer

denim
Download Presentation

The Human Importance of the Intelligence Explosion

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    1. The Human Importance of the Intelligence Explosion

    2. "Intelligence explosion:" Concept invented by I. J. Good (famous name in Bayesian statistics) in 1965. Hypothesis: The smarter you are, the more creativity you can apply to the task of making yourself even smarter. Prediction: Positive feedback cycle rapidly leading to superintelligence.

    3. Intelligence explosion hypothesis does not imply, nor require: More change occurred from 1970 to 2000 than from 1940 to 1970. Technological progress follows a predictable curve. Does not even require that "Real AI" is possible! (An intelligence explosion could happen with augmented humans.)

    4. "Book smarts" vs. cognition: "Book smarts" evokes images of: Calculus Chess Good recall of facts Other stuff that happens in the brain: Social persuasion Enthusiasm Reading faces Rationality Strategic ability

    5. The scale of intelligent minds: a parochial view.

    6. The scale of intelligent minds: a parochial view.

    7. The power of intelligence: Fire Language Nuclear weapons Skyscrapers Spaceships Money Science

    8. One of these things is not like the other... Space travel Extended lifespans Artificial Intelligence Nanofactories

    9. Intelligence: The most powerful force in the known universe - see effects every day Most confusing question in today's science - ask ten scientists, get ten answers Not complete mystery – huge library of knowledge about mind / brain / cognition – but scattered across dozens of different fields!

    10. If I am ignorant about a phenomenon, this is a fact about my state of mind, not a fact about the phenomenon. Confusion exists in the mind, not in reality. There are mysterious questions. Never mysterious answers. (Inspired by Jaynes, E.T. 2003. Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.)

    11. For more about intelligence: Go to http://singinst.org/ (Or google "Singularity Institute") Click on "Summit Notes" Lecture video, book chapters

    12. The brain's biological bottleneck: Neurons run at 100Hz No read access No write access No new neurons Existing code not human-readable

    13. Relative difficulty: Build a Boeing 747 from scratch. Starting with a bird, Modify the design to create a 747-sized bird, That actually flies, As fast as a 747, Then migrate actual living bird to new design, Without killing the bird or making it very unhappy.

    14. The AI Advantage (for self-improvement) Total read/write access to own state Absorb more hardware (possibly orders of magnitude more!) Understandable code Modular design Clean internal environment

    15. Biological bottleneck (for serial speed) Lightspeed >106 times faster than axons, dendrites. Synaptic spike dissipates >106 minimum heat (though transistors do worse) Transistor clock speed >>106 times faster than neuron spiking frequency

    16. Physically possible to build brain at least 1,000,000 times as fast as human brain Even without shrinking brain, lowering temperature, quantum computing, etc... Drexler's Nanosystems says sensorimotor speedup of >>106 also possible 1 year ? 31 seconds

    17. 10,000 years to nanotech? (for superintelligence) Solve chosen special case of protein folding Order custom proteins from online labs with 72-hour turnaround time Proteins self-assemble to primitive device that takes acoustic instructions Use to build 2nd-stage nanotech, 3rd-stage nanotech, etc. Total time: 10,000 years ~ 4 days

    18. Respect the power of creativity and be careful what you call "impossible".

    20. vs.

    21. Can an intelligence explosion be avoided? Self-amplifying once it starts to tip over Very difficult to avoid in the long run But many possible short-term delays Argument: A human-level civilization occupies an unstable state; will eventually wander into a superintelligent region or an extinct region.

    22. Fallacy of the Giant Cheesecake Major premise: A superintelligence could create a mile-high cheesecake. Minor premise: Someone will create a recursively self-improving AI. Conclusion: The future will be full of giant cheesecakes. Power does not imply motive.

    23. Fallacy of the Giant Cheesecake Major premise: A superintelligence could create a mile-high cheesecake. Minor premise: Someone will create a recursively self-improving AI. Conclusion: The future will be full of giant cheesecakes. Power does not imply motive.

    24. Spot the missing premise: A sufficiently powerful AI could wipe out humanity. Therefore we should not build AI. A sufficiently powerful AI could develop new medical technologies and save millions of lives. Therefore, build AI.

    25. Spot the missing premise: A sufficiently powerful AI could wipe out humanity. [And the AI would decide to do so.] Therefore we should not build AI. A sufficiently powerful AI could develop new medical technologies and save millions of lives. [And the AI would decide to do so.] Therefore, build AI.

    27. AI isn't a prediction problem, it's an engineering problem. We have to reach into mind design space, and pull out a mind such that we're glad we created it...

    28. AI isn't a prediction problem, it's an engineering problem. We have to reach into mind design space, and pull out a mind such that we're glad we created it... Challenge is difficult and technical!

    29. "Do not propose solutions until the problem has been discussed as thoroughly as possible without suggesting any." -- Norman R. F. Maier "I have often used this edict with groups I have led - particularly when they face a very tough problem, which is when group members are most apt to propose solutions immediately." -- Robyn Dawes (Dawes, R.M. 1988. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. San Diego, CA: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich.)

    30. What kind of AI do we want to see? Much easier to describe AIs we don't want to see...

    31. "Friendly AI"... (the challenge of creating an AI that, e.g., cures cancer, rather than wiping out humanity) ...looks possible but very difficult.

    32. The intelligence explosion: Enough power to... make the world a better place?

    33. Someday, the human species has to grow up. Why not sooner rather than later?

    34. In a hundred million years, no one's going to care who won the World Series, but they'll remember the first AI.

More Related