Secondary forest valuation on family farms in the eastern brazilian amazon
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Secondary forest valuation on family farms in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon. Jan Börner (CIAT, Amazon Initiative) Arisbe Mendoza (ECOSUR). Outline. Why value secondary forests? Evidence on the fallow-yield relationship

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Secondary forest valuation on family farms in the eastern brazilian amazon

Secondary forest valuation on family farms in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon

Jan Börner (CIAT, Amazon Initiative)

Arisbe Mendoza (ECOSUR)

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Outline

Outline

  • Why value secondary forests?

  • Evidence on the fallow-yield relationship

  • A two-step approach to value the role of capoeira in slash-and-burn farming

  • Policy and technology scenarios

  • Implications for designing conservation incentives

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Why value secondary forests

Why value secondary forests?

  • > 8.7 million ha on farms in the Brazilian Amazon are covered by secondary forests

  • About a quarter is frequently converted for agricultural purposes (crops, pastures)

  • Depending on agricultural practices and technology, farmers may perceive secondary forest growth as cost or benefit factors

  • i.e., conservation incentives can only be effective if these factors are taken into account

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Secondary forests pastures and staple crop fields

Secondary forests, pastures and staple crop fields

Secondary forest re-growth reduces the productivity of pastures

Secondary forest fallows supply nutrients and other ecosystem services in crop producing S&B systems

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Evidence on the fallow yield relationship

Positive fallow-length/yield relation rarely empirically proven

Breakdown points could not be empirically established

Yield is only one of the factors influencing farming decisions

Fallow/yield relationship is only half the story

Evidence on the fallow-yield relationship

Cited in Mertz (2002) Agroforestry S.

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Key questions

Key questions

  • How will policy incentives affect secondary forest cover and related ES?

    • What value to farmers attach to fallows (their length)?

    • What impact does access and use of different technologies have on this value?

    • How do conservation incentives (e.g. PES) affect secondary forest cover and value under different technology scenarios?

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


An example from the eastern brazilian amazon

ZEF Bonn

NAEA/UFPA

An example from the Eastern Brazilian Amazon

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Secondary forest valuation on family farms in the eastern brazilian amazon

Pasture

Recently burned

Cassava

Fallow vegetation

Passion fruit

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Approach

value of

fallowing in the

S&B system

plot-level profit function

estimation

plot-level annual

crop production

data from 450 plots

farm-level data from

270 farm-households

model

calibration

classification

(cluster analysis)

value of secondary

forest fallows at

farm-level

farm-level bio-economic

land use modeling

technical coefficient

data from

30 representative

farm-households

Legend:

Result

Method

Data

Analysis

Approach

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Results of econometric model ii

Results of econometric model II

Obs.: Mean and standard errors of farm elasticities are calculated using one observation for each farm evaluated at mean farm prices. The standard errors are calculated by bootstrapping on 500 data re-sampling.

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Results of econometric model plot level

Results of econometric model (plot-level)

Elasticity Estimates of Profit with Respect to Farm Resources

Equivalent to R$ 385 per ha of 6 year old fallow!

Obs.: Mean and standard errors of farm elasticities are calculated using one observation for each farm evaluated at mean farm prices. The standard errors are calculated by bootstrapping on 500 data re-sampling.

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Results of bio economic model farm level

Results of bio-economic model(farm-level)

R$1 ≈ 0.28 Euro

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Model validation

Model validation

  • No statistically significant bias in predicted 1st-year land use across farm types

  • Long-term trends in average fallow age, and fallow/cropland ratio correspond to farmers’ observations of the past

Model versus Reality

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


A selection of available technologies

A selection of available technologies?

Farm-household choices

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


What would happen if farmers adopted

What would happen if farmers adopted?

Income

Secondary forest/fallows

Fallow age

Sequestered carbon

Labor demand

Adoption of continuous cropping + mechanical land preparation

reduces fallow valuation by 71% to R$/ha 38

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Payments for environmental services

Payments for environmental services

R$1 ≈ 0.28 Euro

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Competitiveness

Competitiveness

CER price at CCX

Avoided emissions (t CO2 per farm) in T=20

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


Conclusions implications

Conclusions & Implications

  • For representative family farms in the Northeastern Amazon annual payments of > R$/ha 100 are needed to induce carbon sequestration

  • Technology access reduces absolute carbon content on farms, but allows capturing additional carbon at 50% lower costs

  • Hence, PES needed to be differentiated to increase scheme efficiency and reduce rent capture by capitalized and well off farmers

LBA 17-19.11.08, Manaus


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