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The accumulating crises of our time

The accumulating crises of our time. "A misunderstanding of exponential arithmetic is one of the most dramatic shortcomings of mankind". (Professor Albert Bartlett 1997). The problem of exponential growth. Doubling time 7.5% p.a. = 10yr doubling time The chessboard and the Persian(?) King

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The accumulating crises of our time

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  1. The accumulating crises of our time

  2. "A misunderstanding of exponential arithmetic is one of the most dramatic shortcomings of mankind". • (Professor Albert Bartlett 1997)

  3. The problem of exponential growth • Doubling time • 7.5% p.a. = 10yr doubling time • The chessboard and the Persian(?) King • Fold a piece of paper • How thick after 40 folds?

  4. The lily pad • Lily grows exponentially • Will fill pond in 30 days • When will it half fill? • Imagine wonderful discovery of 3 new ponds!!! • To keep the system running, the discovery of ponds has to accelerate

  5. Reindeer • 29 introduced to St Matthew’s Island, Alaska in 1944 • Summer 1957 1,350 • Summer 1963 6,000 • Summer 1964 <50 • NB evidence indicates slowdown of growth prior to 1963

  6. Overshoot • Temporary abundance • Temporary overpopulation • Crash and… • Return to equilibrium? • Extinction? • Bounce?

  7. Overshoot 2 • Problem is absence of feedback • System goes beyond limits • One limit becomes critical

  8. Liebig’s law • “Law of the minimum” • Growth is limited by the scarcest resource • Capacity limits

  9. Human population

  10. Limits to Growth • Club of Rome report 1970 • Proven correct over last 35 years • Computer modelling • Once one problem is solved, another rears its head

  11. Human population 2 • Additions peaked in 1987 • Growth is slowing down • Each year c 2m less added • Probably now peak 2025-2030

  12. Human footprint • How many earths? • http://www.myfootprint.org/ • 3bn sustainable??

  13. Sober conclusions • Either we change our way of life and abandon growth • Or we hit the wall and suffer collapse • God is bringing our way of life to an end • We either follow God’s will, or we are destroyed • NB Growth is not the same as development

  14. Possible limits 1 • Energy • But we’ve talked about that one

  15. Possible limits 2 • Water • 1/3 population ‘water stressed’ • Australia: Murray-Darling basin in 6th year of drought • Wheat harvest collapsing – world stocks at lowest for 25 years…

  16. Lima in Peru

  17. Ogallala • On average being used up 4X replacement rate • Southern areas 100X replacement rate • Major water source for ‘bread basket’ • 6m hectares irrigated

  18. Middle East… • Of 14 ME countries 11 are already in ‘water scarcity’ • Saudi obtains ¾ of need from groundwater ‘mining’

  19. Possible limits 3 • Food • Per capita peak in 1985 • 1 in 8 worldwide malnourished • 30% of sub-Saharan Africa • 40m pa die of starvation • Absolute peak in 15yrs? (LTG)

  20. Possible limits 3b • Soil • Land • Cultivated land per person halved 1950 - 1995

  21. Possible limits 4 • Pollution • LTG model 1 doubled resources – crashed from pollution • More vulnerable to disease? • Asian flu • Ebola • Etc etc etc

  22. Possible limits 5 • Global Warming

  23. The accumulating crises of our time • Worldwatch Institute • “The Litany” • Litany is often wrong • More often irrelevant

  24. Bjorn Lomborg • The Sceptical Environmentalist • Remember Peak Oil • Point of maximum available energy

  25. Consequences • Signs of crisis are all around us • If only we have eyes to see • Blinded by idolatry • Idolatry = inability to receive feedback

  26. Consequences 2 • Resource Wars • "Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.“ • US Army Corps of Engineers, Report on Peak Oil, 2005 • ‘Fourth Generation Warfare’ • Eg Hezbollah vs Israel

  27. Consequences 3 • Collapse of many states • See: Shield of Achilles • Organised crime • Bottom up • (the future is local) • Drugs • Human trafficking and slavery • Therefore terrorism

  28. Consequences 4 • Mass migration • Hordes of starving millions outside the wall • Hordes of frightened westerners inside the wall • The wall won’t last • George A Romero

  29. The Four Horsemen • White: conquering from without • Red: battle • Black: famine • Pale: pestilence • “They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague…” (Rev 6.8)

  30. "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst."-- Thomas Hardy

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