Highlights from area vi euv forecast results over the nadir muri years
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Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR MURI years. J.M. Fontenla LASP-University of Colorado Collaboration with: I. Gonzalez Hernandez (NSO) E. Quemerais (CNRS) C. Lindsey (NWRA). C. SC23. SC24. B. N. A. P. O. Solar cycle situation. 2007.

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Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR MURI years

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Highlights from area vi euv forecast results over the nadir muri years

Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR MURI years

J.M. Fontenla

LASP-University of Colorado

Collaboration with:

I. Gonzalez Hernandez (NSO)

E. Quemerais (CNRS)

C. Lindsey (NWRA)


Solar cycle situation

C

SC23

SC24

B

N

A

P

O

Solar cycle situation


Highlights from area vi euv forecast results over the nadir muri years

2007

AR grew slowly on the near-side, but grew rapidly on the far-side

Produced advanced brightening.

Helioseismic data had located this feature.

Lyα backscattering had shown this feature brightness on the far-side.

AR on far-side

AR on near-side


2008 features synoptic mask

2008Features Synoptic Mask

Obsolescence mask indicates number of days since each pixel was observed by PSPT. 0 or -1 indicates observation on the same day.

Features mask show what is (or was) on the solar surface. Three identified regions correspond to active regions that were reported by NOAA with various numbers.

The regions near the poles are never well observed.

Carrington Latitude

Carrington Longitude


Highlights from area vi euv forecast results over the nadir muri years

2009 (1)

XUV/EUV Irradiance Synthesis

Computed spectra at 1 nm resolution, daily since 2005/1/1 (preliminary).

The resolution was degraded after the full resolution radiance spectrum was computed for each feature and disk position.

5


2009 2 a more difficult case

2009 (2)A More Difficult Case

Early weak activity features in Sep 2009. Did not have a steady trend and did not last long.

Their forecast is hard but then produce only a very small SSI variation.

Forecasted & observed Lyα

6


2010 1 comparison of euv spectra with sdo eve and solstice observations

black-SRPM at 1A

green-SOLSTICE

violet-SDO/EVE

blue-Thuiller et all.

SRPM at 1 nm resolution

2010 (1)Comparison of EUV spectra with SDO/EVE and SOLSTICE observations


2010 2 longer picture on ly spectral irradiance

2010 (2)Longer picture on Lyα spectral irradiance


2011 1 sc23 champ neutral density nonlinear fit comparison against srpm ly

2011 (1)SC23 CHAMP neutral density nonlinear fit comparison against SRPM Lyα

Champ density from J.M. Forbes 2009 data. At 400 km, 11:30 to12:30 local time, -5 to 5 deg center latitude.

Scaled value=f(neutral.density)

A very simple, but non-linear, scaling matches well the Lyα solar cycle and rotational modulation trends to the neutral density derived by CHAMP at some locations.


2011 2 forecast case c

2011 (2)Forecast case C

An active region was tiny on the disk in the previous rotation, grew a bit before leaving the disk, and much more on the back side. Then stabilized before coming back again to the disk as a very large and bright active region.

It was at a location where active regions have emerged and decayed before.

Was also observed by GONG since 2011/9/5 just after leaving the solar disk.

Below are just preliminary results by only including the change far-side region observed by GONG ongoing work will include evolution of other nearby regions.

Data gap

In SOLSTICE


2011 3 solar physical models

2011 (3)Solar physical models


2012 1 nowcast

W m-2 nm-1

2012 (1) nowcast


2012 2 nowcast

2012 (2) nowcast


Forecast case studies

Forecast case studies

Case study N was published in 2009, case O was presented in NADIR 2009 meeting, case P in 2010 NADIR meeting. Cases A, B, C are presented here.

C

SC23

SC24

B

N

A

P

O


Where we are at now

Where we are at now

CTIPe run with SRPM nowcast

Sensitivity exam of high-res SSI


Future work

Future work

  • Transition opportunities

  • Improvements and comparisons as new cycle reaches max and decays

  • Use of forecast in CTIPe and TIGCM

  • Study relevance of improvements to thermospheric modeling (neutral density, electron density, and ionospheric properties)


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