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IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP. Edward I. Tollerud 1 , Brian D. Jamison 2 , Fernando Caracena 1 , Steven E. Koch 1 , Diana L. Bartels 1 ,Randall S. Collander 2 1 NOAA Research - Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO

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IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

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  1. Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP Edward I. Tollerud1, Brian D. Jamison2, Fernando Caracena1, Steven E. Koch1, Diana L. Bartels1,Randall S. Collander2 1NOAA Research - Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO 2Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere – Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO LIDAR DATA R. Michael Hardesty3, Brandi J. McCarty4, Christoph Kiemle5, and Gerhard Ehret5 3NOAA Research - Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, CO 4Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 5German Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  2. FSL/FRD IHOP Science Objectives QPF Assessment Design andCompare model runs for sensitivity to input data LLJ Moisture Budget Computations with LLJ research flight data Scales of Moisture Transport by LLJ Qualitative Comparison of Data Analyses IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  3. Flight Plans and Data Platforms IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  4. (What we wanted…) “Perfect storm” scenario 2004 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  5. (What we wanted…) “Perfect storm” scenario IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  6. (What we wanted…) “Perfect storm” scenario IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  7. (What we got…) LAPS Research Analysis Isotachs (kt), 825 hpa 1300 UTC 9 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  8. (What we got…) IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  9. Scales of Moisture Transport Radiosonde-Scale Dropsonde-Scale Lidar-Scale IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  10. Scales of Moisture Transport Lear Drop Times and Locations, Circuits 1 and 2 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  11. Scales of Moisture Transport June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along North Flight Leg – v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  12. Scales of Moisture Transport June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along South Flight Leg – v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  13. Scales of Moisture Transport Falcon drops Circuit one North Leg v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  14. Scales of Moisture Transport Lear drops Circuit two North Leg v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  15. X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  16. Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  17. X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  18. Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  19. X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  20. Interplatform comparison: Co-located Falcon and Lear Profiles dt ~ 1h X X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  21. V x q profile comparison, circuit 1 to circuit 2 dt ~ 4h X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  22. Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Meridional Moisture Flux during Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  23. Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Zonal Moisture Flux during Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  24. Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain • Objectives • Determination of significant contributing mechanisms • Assessment of unresolved transports: comparison of LIDAR covariances and budget residuals • Issues • Stationarity Assumption • Off-perimeter Budget Terms • Surface Fluxes IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  25. Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain • At a point: • q/t + vq (q)/p  R where R=(errors, P, surface flux,etc.) • Over a volume: • q/t + vq (q)/p R • Term by term: •  vq =  vq + v’q’ • Budget domain is 3D box enclosed by data “curtains” beneath flight track • Compute layer average horizontal flux as  vq dl • Domain size and flight patterns are compromise chosen to legitimize assumption of stationarity IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  26. Figure: v and q Lear second circuit! X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  27. Impact of Vertical Correlations X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  28. Impact of Within-layer Vertical Correlations X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  29. Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  30. Temporal Change of Layer Averaged Horizontal Moisture Flux IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  31. Vertically Integrated Moisture Fluxes on Budget Domain Boundary South North Computations from Falcon Dropsondes, Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  32. Full 3D Domain Net Moisture Flux, First Falcon Circuit The answer is: -3.3 mm/day What was the question? IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  33. QPF Sensitivity to High-Density Initialization Data Objective 1: Determine impact of IHOP research data (primarily dropsondes) in initialization dataset on LLJ forecast intensity and placement Procedure: Compare two WRF forecasts (with /IHOP research data in LAPS initialization, and without) for 3 June and 9 June LLJ cases) LIDAR usage: Qualitative forecast assessment Status: Operational runs in process; re-acquisition of LAPS initialization datasets required for research runs in process (eg., revised dropsonde data) Objective 2: Assess importance of surface fluxes to LLJ development LIDAR usage: Initialization dataset Status: Questionable IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  34. Operational WRF Research WRF (w/dropsondes) 12 h Precipitation, 13:00 UTC 9 June - 01:00 UTC 10 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  35. Operational LAPS Research LAPS (w/dropsondes) Isotachs, north leg, 1700 UTC IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  36. Research LAPS (w/dropsondes) Research WRF (w/dropsondes) RH, 825 hpa, 1700 UTC IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  37. Conclusions and Future Efforts Multiscale Structure of the LLJ 1) Several Platforms provide similar picture of LLJ 2) Examine pervasiveness of laminar structures 3) Estimate effects of small (LIDAR-scale) horizontal correlations 4) More detailed determination of temporal development of LLJ IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  38. Conclusions and Future Efforts QPF Implications 1) Influence of drops on analyses and forecasts small 2) Confirm with June 3 case 3) Compute model-predicted fluxes, compare research to baseline 4) Compute fluxes through model-domain top 5) Examine model-generated precipitation fields IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  39. Lear, Falcon Drop Times and Locations, Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  40. 4h forecast 1700 UTC 9 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  41. Analysis 1700 UTC 9 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  42. Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 2 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  43. Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 3 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  44. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

  45. Data and observations IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

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