1 / 24

Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead. Dr. Frank Marks NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory & Cochair, Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research. Overview. Background

Download Presentation

Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Dr. Frank Marks NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory & Cochair, Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

  2. Overview • Background • Plan Overview • Structure of the Plan • Key Findings and Recommendations • Summary / Next Step

  3. Background • Impetus for this plan • Principal action item, agreed upon by the participants in the 58th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (March 2004) • To develop comprehensive strategy for tropical cyclone research and development to guide interagency efforts over the next decade • Meeting of Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) (November 2004) • Strongly supported action (action item 2004-2.7) • Meeting of the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) (December 2004) • The senior interagency policy decision body advising OFCM, the IHC, and ICMSSR • Actions discussed and supported • Federal Coordinator formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) (February 2005)

  4. Background Why More Improvements? Track Guidance Errors (n mi) (1985 – 2006) (Atlantic Basin) Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006) (Atlantic Basin) • 48-hour forecasts since 1985 • Track: improved 3.5% per year on average • Intensity: improved 0.8% per year on average

  5. Hurricane Rita: 72 hrs to landfall Hurricane Rita Official Forecast Advisory #15 (maximum sustained winds: 120 mph) Hurricane Rita Houston Evacuates 3 Million Background Why More Improvements? • U.S. population: 53% live within 50 miles of coast • High population density: local officials need ~72 hrs to implement evacuation actions

  6. Hurricane Rita “Best Track” Positions Hurricane Rita Houston Evacuates 3 Million Background Why More Improvements? • U.S. population: 53% live within 50 miles of coast • High population density: local officials need ~72 hrs to implement evacuation actions

  7. Background Why More Improvements? Track Guidance Errors (n mi) (1985 – 2006) Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006) • 48-hour forecasts since 1985 • Track: improved 3.5% per year on average • Intensity: improved 0.8% per year on average

  8. Background Complexity: Track vs. Intensity • Hurricane track is influenced primarily by large-scale (> 1000 km) processes • Hurricane intensity is influenced primarily by small-scale (< 10 km) processes, such as air-sea interaction • Hurricane intensity is a difficult observational, scientific, computer modeling, and forecasting challenge • Solution: • High-resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model • Inherent higher costs to solve intensity challenge • Making progress • For the first time, the dynamical intensity guidance for the Atlantic basin in 2006 was better to the statistical guidance on average

  9. Background Why More Improvements? Track Guidance Errors (n mi) (1985 – 2006) Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006) • 48-hour forecasts since 1985 • Track: improved 3.5% per year on average • Intensity: improved 0.8% per year on average

  10. Background JAG/TCR

  11. Background JAG/TCR

  12. Plan Overview • Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies • Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers • Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane Center (TPC / NHC) • Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) • Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) • Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories • Track • Intensity • Structure • Sea state • Storm surge • Precipitation • Observations

  13. Structure of the Strategic Research Plan • Chapter 1 • Makes case for additional improvements • Introduces: • Operational community to include: • Three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC • Operational NWP modeling centers: NCEP/EMC and Navy NRL/FNMOC • R&D community • Chapter 2 • Provides more in-depth review of tropical cyclone community • Reviews major previous work from which to build on Tropical Cyclone Community of Practice

  14. Structure of the Strategic Research Plan • Chapter 3 • Examines current capability and limitations of Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning system • End-to-end review of “system” • Includes data collection, data assimilation and NWP modeling, forecasting and warning, transition of research to operations, end user education, training, and outreach) • Chapter 4 • Summarizes the operational needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC • Table 4-1 • Presents planned capabilities to meet the operational needs • End-to-end review

  15. Structure of the Strategic Research Plan • Chapter 5 • Presents research priorities to aid in meeting the needs of the operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers • Chapter 6 • Key findings • Recommendations

  16. Key Findings & Recommendations • Tropical cyclone research • Section 5.1 and Table 5-1: atmospheric / oceanic-related priorities • Section 5.2: Climate (interseasonal, interannual, and longer-term variability) • Section 5.3 and Appendix P: social sciences • JAG/TCR recommends: • Strong support for activities focused on research identified in Chapter 5 • Social science research be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program

  17. Key Findings & Recommendations • Significant gaps in meeting observation requirements; JAG/TCR advocates supporting / developing / acquiring capabilities in following areas: • Hurricane core observations from airborne Doppler radar • Tropospheric winds • Ocean surface vector winds—for use by tropical cyclone forecasters and in tropical cyclone NWP systems (i.e., QuickSCAT replacement) • Accurately measure the 3-D global wind field to optimally specify global initial conditions for NWP forecasts and much improved tropical cyclone track forecasts • Satellite altimetry • NPOESS ALT instrument cancelled • Above capabilities essential for meeting operational needs of the tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers

  18. Key Findings & Recommendations • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling (i.e., computer models) and data assimilation • Increased skill in forecasting intensity and structure, sea state and storm surge, and precipitation is now on the horizon, much as improving track forecast skill was two decades or so ago • To meet operational needs, the Nation must be committed to supporting the key following areas: • Advanced observations and observing strategies • Advanced data assimilation technologies • Advanced NWP models • Investment in human and infrastructure resources • Development of next-generation operational hurricane forecast systems should be a National priority • NOAA: NCEP GFS & HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System • U.S. Navy: NOGAPS & COAMPS Tropical Cyclone System

  19. Key Findings & Recommendations • NWP modeling and data assimilation (continued) • Development efforts of next-generation hurricane forecast systems • Should form basis for projects supporting hurricane research and collaboration among experts from: • Academia • International researchers • Private sector • Other Federal agencies • Sufficient human / infrastructure resources should be provided for: • Development of advanced data assimilation & NWP modeling systems • Operational NWP computing

  20. Key Findings & Recommendations JAG/TCR Estimated Additional Funding ($ Millions) Fiscal Year

  21. Key Findings & Recommendations JAG/TCR Estimated Additional Funding ($ Millions) • Development of Advanced DA and NWP Models:(Chapter 4 & Appendices I-M)Improvements to global atmospheric models (GFS & NOGAPS) and high-resolution, regional models (HWRF & COAMPS); improvements in atmospheric and ocean data assimilation; implementing Earth System Modeling Framework (increase model component interoperability); improvements to ocean models (e.g., HYCOM; NCOM); implement / improve multi-grid WAVEWATCH III (MWW3) (movable/nested); dynamic storm surge model coupling to regional, high-resolution TC models; coupling of the Land Surface Model with regional, high resolution TC models; evaluate/verify wind and precipitation output. • Transition of Research to Operations: Increased funding for: computing power for parallel model systems (test and evaluate) and testbeds (Joint Hurricane Testbed, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, and Developmental Testbed Center) Fiscal Year

  22. Recommendation • Form new OFCM Working Group • Develop 10-year, multi-agency tropical cyclone research implementation plan, outlining specific actions / strategies to address research priorities • Draft NWP model development improvement plan that: • Includes procedures to enhance the flow of relevant research focused on improvements to the operational NWP systems • Enhances the conduit by which the academic community could be involved (e.g., through Joint Hurricane Testbed, Developmental Testbed Center) • Accounts for having sufficient human and infrastructure resources for development work and transition of research to operations activities • Develop tropical cyclone observation improvement plan (e.g., observations from manned / unmanned aircraft, satellites, in-situ)

  23. Summary / Next Step • Interagency plan: • Presents comprehensive roadmap of activities to further improve the effectiveness of the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning service during the next decade and beyond • Resounding consensus from approximately 200 participants at recent Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (March 5-9, 2007) • Plan is complemented by and consistent in many aspects with other concurrent hurricane research reports/plans • NOAA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) • National Science Board’s Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering (HSE) • Next Step: Form new OFCM Working Group • Seeking ICMSSR support

  24. QUESTIONS?

More Related