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Extreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure

Extreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure. G. L. Geernaert, S. J. Fernandez Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM. Outline. Infrastructure interdependence The social dimension and issues LANL programmatic capabilities Needs and opportunities. Infrastructure interdependence.

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Extreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure

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  1. Extreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure G. L. Geernaert, S. J. Fernandez Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM

  2. Outline • Infrastructure interdependence • The social dimension and issues • LANL programmatic capabilities • Needs and opportunities

  3. Infrastructure interdependence • Safety: managing a crisis-population • Scenarios of evacuation decision-making • Communicating to diverse population groups • Law enforcement and state/federal aid • Transport networks: scenarios • Energy security • Predicting grid break-down and recovery • Water security: clean water • Food security • Financial institutions, security, schools, etc. • Human capital: local • Coastal: Cultural and ecological heritage

  4. Social dimension and issues • Communicating to the public • Macroscale: federal/state • Executing decisions: local • Community networks well understood • Religious affinity groups • Ethnic affinity groups • Other affinity groups • Reverse migration • Local cultural “ownership” by community

  5. Maintenance of Daily Functioning of U.S. Society in the Face of Threats to our Infrastructure The Interaction of Extreme Weather Events and the Nation’s Infrastructures • Coupled Application Models for Infrastructure with Weather & Climate

  6. Requirements Developed from: • Interagency Hurricane Conference – Joint NOAA(DOC) – NSF Research requirements under umbrella of Federal Coordinator for Meteorology • Joint Planning Conference of the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA • National Laboratory – CIP – FSSC Conferences of the DOE Visualization and Modeling Working Group • White House Office of Science and Technology Policy – Katrina Lessons Learned • US Chamber of Commerce – American Meteorological Society Policy Forum

  7. A National Integrated Modeling Capability • A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on engineered infrastructures • A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on non-engineered infrastructures • A series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: • extreme weather modeling, • the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling • the debris, waterways and flooding modeling • the transportation and response models • Demographic, social, and economic implications.

  8. LANL Critical Infrastructure Projects & Technologies Typical Applications • Situational awareness • Contingency planning • Independent assessment & verification • Event reconstruction • Consequence assessment • Recovery & restoration operations • Security & reliability improvement • Deployment of protective forces

  9. CIP/DSS Architecture

  10. Unifying Idea Develop standard protocols in a service-oriented architecture (SOA) for supplying weather and climate data to infrastructure models.

  11. Quick-Response Process

  12. How might a roadmap provide the basis of a credible proposal? One possible roadmap that integrates the extreme weather models, infrastructure failure and restoration models, the USACE emergency response models, and economic models is described as an example.

  13. Landfall and wind calculations Electric Transmission Lines& Power Plants Natural Gas Pipelines, ProcessingPlants & Compressors

  14. Hurricane Dennis Outage Restoration

  15. Time History – Actual vs. Predicted

  16. Hurricane Katrina Ice Model Landfall Plus About24 Hours

  17. Summary • The time may be right to propose a series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: • extreme weather modeling, • the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling • the debris, waterways and flooding modeling • the transportation and response models • Demographic, social, and economic implications.

  18. Uncertainties, needs and opportunities • Uncertainties • Hurricane intensification, then track • Structural collapse – flying debris induced damage • Needs • Better wind field predictions • Preparedness much further in advance • Strategies for public warning, communications • Opportunities • HiFi • Lessons learned translated into new strategies

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