Electoral College Issues Explored through Mathematics and Data Analysis NCSS San Diego

1. Electoral College Issues Explored through Mathematics and Data Analysis NCSS San Diego December 1, 2007 Dr. Tim Fry Washburn University Topeka, KS tim.fry@washburn.edu

2. Electoral College • Historical Origins & Precedents • Inquiry Activities • Games & Activities • Scrap It, Keep It or Tweak It ?

3. Classroom ObjectivesStudents will be able to: • note historical origins, precedents and changes to the electoral college system especially the small/large state compromise, role of state legislatures and 12th Amendment to the Constitution • describe some aspects of how the electoral college system works today especially noting the winner takes all in most states • analyze data from several presidential elections noting popular and electoral vote outcomes with variations, third party/independent candidate effects • list and describe some current issues for keeping, scrapping or tweaking the electoral college system

4. Sites for data on popular vote and electoral votes are: http://www.uselectionatlas.org (Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections) http://nationalatlas.gov http://fisher.lib.virginia.edu/collections/stats/elections

5. 2000

6. Florida 2000

7. Related articles by Tim Fry:“Constitutional Mathematics: Integrating Social Studies and Mathematics,” Law Wise, September 2004 “Lesson Plan #1: The Electoral College Game,” Law Wise, September 2004 http://www.kscourts.org/lawwise/sep2004.htm#math

9. Electoral College--Historical Origins, Precedents, Amendments • Tough assignment-How to elect a president? large/small states; central/federal versus states power; balance of power between Congress & the Presidency; little communication between states- • Several Proposals • 1) have the Congress choose • 2) state legislatures choose • 3) direct popular vote-favorite son & large vs. small • 4) College of electors--indirect election in which each state legislatures would choose knowledgeable and informed individuals to select the president based solely on merit and without regard to State of origin or political party. http://www.uselectionatlas.org

10. Electoral College--Historical Origins, Precedents, Amendments • The First Design-- Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution • Each State allocated number of Electors equal to its congressional delegation. • The manner of choosing the Electors was left to the individual State legislatures. • In order to prevent Electors from voting only for a "favorite son" of their own State, each Elector was required to cast two votes for president, at least one of which had to be for someone outside their home State. • The person with the most electoral votes, provided that it was an absolute majority became president. Whoever obtained the next greatest number of electoral votes became vice president. • In the event that no one obtained an absolute majority in the Electoral College or in the event of a tie vote, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose the president from among the top five contenders. The vice presidency would go to whatever remaining contender had the greatest number of electoral votes. If that, too, was tied, the U.S. Senate would break the tie by deciding between the two. • http://www.uselectionatlas.org

11. 1792 http://www.uselectionatlas.org

12. 1796 http://www.uselectionatlas.org

13. 1800 http://www.uselectionatlas.org

14. Historical Origins, Precedents, Amendments The Second Design (after four elections and rise of political parties) the 12th Amendment(1804) requires that: + each Elector cast one vote for president and a separate vote for vice president + if no one receives an absolute majority of electoral votes for president, then the U.S. House of Representatives will select the president from among the top three contenders with each State casting only one vote and an absolute majority being required to elect. + if no one receives an absolute majority for vice president, then the U.S. Senate will select the vice president from among the top two contenders for that office. http://www.uselectionatlas.org

15. 1804

16. 1824 http://www.uselectionatlas.org

17. 1960

18. 1960

19. Election Inquiry Activity Map #1 http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/elections.html#list

20. Election Inquiry Activity Map #2 http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/elections.html#list

21. Election Inquiry Activity Questions Use Inquiry Activity Maps #1&#2 to answer the following questions about Presidential Elections from 1972-2000 (sample questions) 1. What three elections did the Republicans win the electoral vote by a landslide? 2. Which election was the closest in number of electoral votes? Which election was close in the popular vote but a landslide in the electoral vote? Name at least one state in which the same political party has won all eight elections. Note an election that was close in both the electoral vote and the popular vote. In which election did the Democratic candidate do the poorest in number of electoral votes? In which election did the winner of the popular vote lose the electoral vote?

22. “Electoral Vote Density” Number of voters divided by electoral votes Varies greatly between California and Wyoming 2004 Election California Electoral Vote Density: 651,659 persons per EV Wyoming Electoral Vote Density: 168,511persons per EV

23. 1984 Wyoming

24. 1984 Maryland

28. Other resources/sites http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/index.html

31. Other resources/sites http://www.timeforkids.com/TFK/games/white/0,9970,96321,00.html

33. Electoral College Keep it, Tweak it,Scrap it ?

34. Some Arguments for the Electoral College maintains a federal system of government and representation ----”nationalization of our central government”--”state’s choice” contributes to the political stability of the nation by encouraging a two-party system and political stability ---diffficult for minor party to win enough popular votes to get electoral votes--forces fringe or extreme ideas to the middle and also sometimes forces majority parties to adopt new ideas to maintain support--assimilation process--pragmatism contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president --Candidates must build coaltions of states and regions (urban and rural) & without it the EC comes the possibilty of domination of one large populous region or of urban over rural interests http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/INFORMATION/electcollege_procon

35. Four Arguments Against the Electoral College : * the possibility of electing a numerically minority president narrow popular vote in large state-winner take all * the risk of so-called "faithless" Electors 1988-Dukakis/Bensen-West Virginia Elector switched them * the possible role of the Electoral College in depressing voter turnout other elections always taking place as well * its failure to accurately reflect the national popular will seven least populous states combined voters of about 3 million and 25 electoral votes the same as almost 10 million voters in Florida with the same 25 electoral votes--electoral vote density http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/INFORMATION/electcollege_procon

36. Tweak It ? District Method Two Electors At Large and one Electors for each Congressional District are pledged to each Presidential/Vice-Presidential ticket (the Electors' names may or may not appear on the ballot). The At-Large Electors pledged to the ticket having received the plurality of votes state-wide are chosen. The Elector pledged to the ticket having received the plurality of votes within each Congressional District is chosen. * This method was used by Michigan in the 1892 Election, splitting electors Rep 9 to Dem 5 * Maine adopted this method in 1969 (first used in 1972), but has yet to split any electors * Nebraska adopted this method in 1991 (first used in 1992), but has yet to split any electors http://uselectionatlas.org

37. Your Thoughts on the Electoral College?