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Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity Market F . Andrew Dowdy Engineers Without Borders – USA*

Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity Market F . Andrew Dowdy Engineers Without Borders – USA*. *This presentation represents views of the author, not necessarily those of EWB-USA. Africa’s Electricity Challenge. Africa at heart of global challenge

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Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity Market F . Andrew Dowdy Engineers Without Borders – USA*

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  1. Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity MarketF. Andrew DowdyEngineers Without Borders – USA* *This presentation represents views of the author, not necessarily those of EWB-USA

  2. Africa’s Electricity Challenge • Africa at heart of global challenge • 2017: 840m globally without electricity, 573m in Sub-Saharan Africa • 2030: 650m globally without electricity, 600m in Sub-Saharan Africa • 80% of those in rural areas, far from grid • Off-grid power systems key • By 2030: • Solar home systems serve 86m • Mini-grids serve 45m • By 2040: • Possibly > 500m by both • Unprecedented development GraceN.Cartography, commons.wikimedia.org Image courtesy Fenix International

  3. Household Electricity Demand • Miniscule Consumption • U.S. Household-900 kWh/mo • African HHs: 20-30 kWh/mo. • Capacity to pay: $5-10/mo. • Prioritized Uses • Lights • Cellphone charging • TV • Fan • Refrigerator • Pressing Iron • Falling loads • LED for lights and TV’s • Brushless DC motors for fans • Load 1/10th that of 1990’s

  4. Supply: Cost Structure • Off-grid power is expensive • Cost varies with scale • SHS cheapest at small scales • Mini-grids at larger • Grid at largest

  5. 2030 Cost Structure? • Technology improvements • Forecast to lower solar costs • But distribution costs unchanged • SHS’s become cheaper than mini-grids across consumption range • Off-grid power is expensive • Cost varies with scale • SHS cheapest at small scales • Mini-grids at larger • Grid at largest

  6. Market Outlook • Solar home systems • Dominate household market • First mover advantage • “Paygo” financing • Lack of regulatory barriers • Technology → lower costs • Grid extension • Success varies by country • Hampered by poor regulatory environment & bankrupt utilities • Mini-Grids • Viable for larger towns and loads • But high cost similar to SHS • Plus regulated like grid • Tenuous market niche

  7. Observations/Conclusions • Electricity Access • Outcomes vary by country • Most SSA countries will miss SDG 7 goals • But most households will achieve lighting, TV • Poverty the principal obstacle • Household resources < capital required • SSA much poorer than US during rural electrification • For Policymakers • Electricity access is important for human and economic development • But may not be the best use of limited donor resources • Electricity access not demonstrably tied to broader economic development • Investment probably exceeds $2000/household • Households exhibit other preferences for investment funds Image: EWB – Larry Bentley SHS’s in Refugee Camp in Nepal

  8. The Thinker, Musee Rodin, by innoxiuss, Wikimedia Commons Questions?

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