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Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co. Robert Griffin *, Katie Arkema , Joey Bernhardt, Joe Faries , Greg Guannel , Anne Guerry , Jess Silver , Jodie Toft , Gregg Verutes , Spencer Wood naturalcapitalproject.org [email protected]

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Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co.

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Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co.

Robert Griffin*, Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Joe Faries, Greg Guannel, Anne Guerry, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Gregg Verutes, Spencer Wood

naturalcapitalproject.org

[email protected]

Natural Capital Project Annual Meeting, 2013


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Overview

Developing methods to assess “natural defenses” to protect Dow’s Freeport, TX facility from storms

Dow

- Chemical company

- $40B Market Cap

Dow Freeport

- 5,000 acres on Gulf of

Mexico

- Half of U.S. production

- 21% of global prod

- Hurricane prone


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Overview


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Overview

TNC and Dow

- 2011 Collaborative Agreement

- 3 Pilot Projects

- Freeport, Texas

- Santa Vitoria, Brazil

- TBD

- Freeport Project

- Air Quality and Reforestation

- Freshwater Supply

- Coastal Hazard Mitigation


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Research Questions

Hypotheses/Questions

General: Does marsh restoration reduce the inundation level and damage from storms?

Dow: To what extent is marsh restoration a substitute for levees?

Auxiliary Analysis

Marsh restoration has spillover effects to public (direct and indirect)

- Direct: Protect “public” properties

- Indirect: Recreation, carbon sequestration, fisheries


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Cost Benefit Analysis

Local Forcings

Affected Parties

Valuation

Value of avoided Dow damages

  • Scenarios

  • No restoration (status quo)

  • No restoration, build levees

  • Restoration

    • Opportunistic

    • Targeted

Valuation Framework

Dow

Sea level rise

Storms

Net value of management options to Dow and Public

Value of avoided damages

Responses

Public

Coastal

Development

Action Costs to Dow

Value of co-benefits


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Natural Defenses


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Natural Defenses

Physical Modeling

Avoided Damages Model


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Recreation

  • Uses Flickr data to estimate visitation rates in an area of interest

  • Predictors can be:

    • Natural Phenomena

    • Culture

    • Industry

    • Cost

    • Land Cover

  • Matched with expenditures it can estimate changes in expenditures


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Fisheries

  • Fisheries model  species’ propensity to respond to changes in habitat

    • Qualitative assessment based on changes in critical habitat area

    • Returns population response as +/- and scaled (low-high on a 5 point scale)


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Carbon Sequestration

  • Landcover changes can sequester carbon

  • Our blue carbon model outputs:

    • changes in carbon due to management action

    • social or private value of carbon


Nat cap modeling for the nature conservancy and dow chemical co

Results

  • Developed assessment methods for natural defenses

  • Assessment results (targeted restoration)

    • Salt marsh restoration does not significantly reduce damages in this area to Dow or Freeport

    • NPV of carbon sequestration is $1.2 million

    • Recreation expenditures increase $150 million

    • 12 fisheries benefit


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