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Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co.

Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co. Robert Griffin *, Katie Arkema , Joey Bernhardt, Joe Faries , Greg Guannel , Anne Guerry , Jess Silver , Jodie Toft , Gregg Verutes , Spencer Wood naturalcapitalproject.org *rmgriff@stanford.edu

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Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co.

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  1. Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co. Robert Griffin*, Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Joe Faries, Greg Guannel, Anne Guerry, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Gregg Verutes, Spencer Wood naturalcapitalproject.org *rmgriff@stanford.edu Natural Capital Project Annual Meeting, 2013

  2. Overview Developing methods to assess “natural defenses” to protect Dow’s Freeport, TX facility from storms Dow - Chemical company - $40B Market Cap Dow Freeport - 5,000 acres on Gulf of Mexico - Half of U.S. production - 21% of global prod - Hurricane prone

  3. Overview

  4. Overview TNC and Dow - 2011 Collaborative Agreement - 3 Pilot Projects - Freeport, Texas - Santa Vitoria, Brazil - TBD - Freeport Project - Air Quality and Reforestation - Freshwater Supply - Coastal Hazard Mitigation

  5. Research Questions Hypotheses/Questions General: Does marsh restoration reduce the inundation level and damage from storms? Dow: To what extent is marsh restoration a substitute for levees? Auxiliary Analysis Marsh restoration has spillover effects to public (direct and indirect) - Direct: Protect “public” properties - Indirect: Recreation, carbon sequestration, fisheries

  6. Cost Benefit Analysis Local Forcings Affected Parties Valuation Value of avoided Dow damages • Scenarios • No restoration (status quo) • No restoration, build levees • Restoration • Opportunistic • Targeted Valuation Framework Dow Sea level rise Storms Net value of management options to Dow and Public Value of avoided damages Responses Public Coastal Development Action Costs to Dow Value of co-benefits

  7. Natural Defenses

  8. Natural Defenses Physical Modeling Avoided Damages Model

  9. Recreation • Uses Flickr data to estimate visitation rates in an area of interest • Predictors can be: • Natural Phenomena • Culture • Industry • Cost • Land Cover • Matched with expenditures it can estimate changes in expenditures

  10. Fisheries • Fisheries model  species’ propensity to respond to changes in habitat • Qualitative assessment based on changes in critical habitat area • Returns population response as +/- and scaled (low-high on a 5 point scale)

  11. Carbon Sequestration • Landcover changes can sequester carbon • Our blue carbon model outputs: • changes in carbon due to management action • social or private value of carbon

  12. Results • Developed assessment methods for natural defenses • Assessment results (targeted restoration) • Salt marsh restoration does not significantly reduce damages in this area to Dow or Freeport • NPV of carbon sequestration is $1.2 million • Recreation expenditures increase $150 million • 12 fisheries benefit

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