a market assessment of residential grid tied pv systems in colorado
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
A Market Assessment of Residential Grid-Tied PV Systems in Colorado

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 44

A Market Assessment of Residential Grid-Tied PV Systems in Colorado - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 99 Views
  • Uploaded on

A Market Assessment of Residential Grid-Tied PV Systems in Colorado. NREL Technical Report, Sept. 2000 by Barbara C. Farhar, Ph.D. Timothy C. Coburn, Ph.D. Summarized by Pamela Quigley. Study Objective.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' A Market Assessment of Residential Grid-Tied PV Systems in Colorado' - debra-baldwin


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
a market assessment of residential grid tied pv systems in colorado

A Market Assessment of Residential Grid-Tied PV Systems in Colorado

NREL Technical Report, Sept. 2000

by

Barbara C. Farhar, Ph.D.

Timothy C. Coburn, Ph.D.

Summarized by Pamela Quigley

study objective
Study Objective
  • To develop estimates of the size of the Grid-Tied Photovoltaic (GPV) market among Colorado homeowners
  • Identify
    • PV benefits
    • Barriers to adoption
    • Information needs & sources
    • Desired PV attributes
    • Market Segmentation & Size
research approach
Research Approach
  • Use knowledge gained in prior qualitative study
    • 120? open ended face-to-face interviews with self-nominated parties conducted between 199x – 199x
    • Purpose to identify 50 homeowners willing to pay $8,000-12,000 for 2- or 3-kW GPV systems ($4/watt by homeowner)
      • Subsidized by federal grant
    • Results published “Public Response to Residential Grid-Tied PV Systems in Colorado: A Qualitative Market Assessment” – Farhar & Buhrmann, 1998
research approach1
Research Approach
  • Mailed 6,088 surveys to single-family Colorado homeowners in 1998*
    • 3001 responses; response rate 60%
  • Assumed most homeowners knew little about GPV systems
    • GPV not available in CO at time of survey
  • Designed to permit categorization of respondents into stages of adoption process

*Near as I can tell

research approach2
Research Approach

Characteristics of Innovation Adopters

  • Innovators: control substantial resources, technically knowledgable, tolerate uncertainty
  • Early adopters: well integrated in communities, people to whom others look for advice
  • Early majority: more deliberate
  • Late majority: skeptical to new ideas, cautious, finally adopts b/c not to would leave in relatively worse position
  • Laggards: limited resources, less integrated socially
stages of innovation adoption

Near Term

Market

1. Knowledge

2. Persuasion

3. Decision

5. Confirmation

4. Implementation

Exceptional Coloradoans

Stages of Innovation Adoption
  • Heard of innovation, usually through professional or business exposure
  • Awareness & exposure to more info; will form position towards innovation
  • Behavioral intention to use innovation or not
  • If favorable, purchases innovation
  • Lives w/ + or – consequences; may reject
dependent variables
Dependent Variables
  • Favorability to GPV
  • System size / price tradeoffs
  • Willingness to pay for GPV
  • Behavioral intention
independent variables
Independent Variables
  • Perceived relative advantage of PV
    • Rated importance of 23 perceived benefits
    • Perceived fuel source in CO
  • Perceived feasibility of GPV
    • Rated importance of 21 product attributes
    • Preferred payment methods
    • Preferred source of GPV
  • Knowledge
    • Familiarity of GPV; Knowledge to make decision
independent variables1
Independent Variables
  • Information
    • Importance of 15 information needs
    • Importance of 24 information sources
  • Policy Preferences
    • Subsidy preference & how to pay
  • Compatible lifestyle & values
    • Environmental values
    • Early adopter characteristics
  • Also collected demographics
question structure

Not important likely or familiar

Very important likely or familiar

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Question Structure
  • Mean
  • Strong preference: 8,9,10%
  • Preference: 7,8,9,10%
  • Must have: 11
familiarity favorability

68%

Familiarity & Favorability
  • How familiar are you with GPV?
    • Mean: 3.2
  • How favorable are you to these systems being available to CO residents?
    • Mean: 7.5
    • Very favorable (9,10): 44%
    • Favorable (7,8): 24%
    • Neutral (5,6): 21%
  • Not familiar, but favorable
knowledge behavior

XCEL: 98% Coal

Fort Collins: 50% hydro

Knowledge & Behavior
  • Do you know enough about GPV to make informed buying decision?
    • Mean: 3.3
    • 8,9,10%: 10%
  • What is primary fuel for electricity in CO?
    • Coal: 52% (48% wrong!)
    • Natural gas: 27%
    • Hydro: 12%
    • Oil: 6%
perceived benefits tier 1
Perceived Benefits – Tier 1
  • Financial & long-term top the list w/ mean ratings of 8.0 or more
  • Focus of marketing efforts

F: Financial; L/L: Long term local; L/G: Long term global; S: Self sufficiency; A: Altruism

perceived benefits tier 2
Perceived Benefits – Tier 2
  • Next, but still very important is energy self sufficiency; financial & long term show up too.
  • Means of 7.5 – 7.8

F: Financial; L/L: Long term local; L/G: Long term global; S: Self sufficiency; A: Altruism

perceived benefits tiers 3 4
Perceived Benefits –Tiers 3 & 4
  • Concern for Colorado
  • Altruism not as important
perceived barriers
Perceived Barriers
  • Of the 18 barriers investigated, 17 have mean scores 7.7 or higher
  • People don’t know much about PV; all are important to address
  • Only 1 ranked as unimportant:
    • “What friends & neighbors might say” with mean score of 3.7
perceived barriers tier 1
Perceived Barriers – Tier 1
  • Operability, reputation and financial top the list of barriers
  • Mean scores of 8.8 and higher

F: Financial; O: Operability; R: Business Reputation; H: Home; S: Safety; T:Technology

perceived barriers tier 2
Perceived Barriers – Tier 2
  • Impact on home: resale value, insurance, safety, required space

F: Financial; O: Operability; R: Business Reputation; H: Home; S: Safety; T:Technology

information needs
Information Needs
  • All 15 information needs investigated ranked as important with mean scores 7.0 and higher
  • Again, indicates that people are unfamiliar
information needs tier 1
Information Needs – Tier 1
  • Must know before purchasing decision
  • Mean scores of 9.0
  • Not surprisingly, all financial issues

F: Financial; O: Operability; G: General; E: Environmental

information needs tier 2
Information Needs – Tier 2
  • Strong purchasing elements
  • Mean scores 8.3 – 8.7

F: Financial; O: Operability; G: General; E: Environmental

information needs tier 3
Information Needs – Tier 3
  • Technical & environmental
  • Mean scores of 7.0 – 7.9

F: Financial; O: Operability; G: General; E: Environmental

information sources
Information Sources
  • No single “go to” source
  • Highest mean score of 6.9 indicates people are either:
    • Unsure who has reliable info
    • Not likely to be seeking more info
  • People want to see it themselves
  • Utility ranked 2nd!
  • Government agencies ranked low
information sources1
Information Sources

K: Know personally; B: Business; I: Institution; G: Government

preferred system features
Preferred System Features
  • Investigated 21 features
  • Identified some ‘must haves’
system features must haves
System Features – Must Haves
  • A 20-year system life with warranty
  • Rebates needed to stimulate market
  • Independence from grid
  • Quantify electricity generated

F: Financial; R: Reliability; S: Self sufficiency; P: Performance; A: Aesthetics

system features tier 1
System Features – Tier 1
  • Aesthetics & reliability important
  • Want service agreements

F: Financial; R: Reliability; S: Self sufficiency; P: Performance; A: Aesthetics

system features tier 2 3
System Features – Tier 2 & 3
  • Mostly financial aspects:
  • Not as important:

F: Financial; R: Reliability; S: Self sufficiency; P: Performance; A: Aesthetics

pv system sources
PV System Sources
  • 25% indicated they’d ‘very likely’ buy PV from their utility
  • Indicates that they trust utility
appearance performance tradeoffs
Appearance / Performance Tradeoffs
  • Fair amount of education needed
  • Aesthetics are important
size price tradeoffs
Size / Price Tradeoffs
  • At time of survey, average monthly electric bill is $45 (600 kWh)
  • Should not interpret as intent to buy
purchasing preferences

PAQ update: PVWatts

used to estimate

electricity generated

Purchasing Preferences
changes in favorability
Changes in Favorability
  • Those initially favorable: 77% remain favorable, 22% become less favorable
  • Those initially neutral: 29% become more favorable, 20% become more unfavorable
  • Those initially unfavorable: 57% become more favorable, 44% remain unfavorable
market segmentation analysis
Market Segmentation Analysis
  • Sensitivity analysis used to identify variables that can be used to measure immediacy of GPV purchase decision thereby estimating the size of near term market – those in the decision making stage
criterion cluster analysis results
Criterion Cluster Analysis Results
  • Four Criterion variables
    • Willingness to look for more GPV information
    • Willingness to pay for No-added-cost GPV
    • Preference for system to provide 100% electricity needs
    • Favorability towards using GPV on own home
predictor criterion
Seven Predictor variables

Warranty reassurance: feature

Self-reliant ownership: feature

Environmental benefit: benefit

Personal financial benefit: benefit

Pacesetter benefit: benefit

Neighborhood concern: barrier

System failure: barrier

Predictor Criterion
crosstabulation
Pacesetters & Steady Positives most likely to consider near term purchase

Respond to marketing campaigns emphasizing pacesetting, environmental & financial aspects of GPV

Tier 4

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Crosstabulation
composition of market
Composition of Market
  • Tier 1: Early Adopters, 38%
    • Higher % of skilled workers
    • Lowest % of college grads
    • Higher % of Western Slope residents
    • Low % of political conservatives
  • Tier 2: Mid-term Adopters, 47%
    • Mostly affluent
    • Highly educated
    • Highest job positioned
    • High % of Denver/Boulder residents
composition of market1
Composition of Market
  • Tier 3: Late adopters, 8%
    • Higher % of women & younger
    • Highest % of skilled workers
    • High % of politically conservative
  • Tier 4: Non-adopters, 7%
    • High % retirees
    • High % political conservatives
    • High % Denver/Boulder residents
market size cost tradeoffs
Market Size / Cost Tradeoffs

Financing provided by utility at 7% interest, amortized over 20 year period

with a 37 3 6 kw at 18 000 net
With A-373.6 kW at $18,000 net

1,300 – 1,800 units

4.7 – 6.5 MW

ad