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THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts. Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY. U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s. EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]. U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08

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Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY

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Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

Upgraded Russian

Radiosonde Network for IPY

U.S. (NOAA)

Winter

NOAA G-4 and

Air Force C-130s

EU, US,

Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

U.S.

ONR/NSF

TCS-08

[NRL P-3, WC-130]

PROBEX

TH08

WMO

WCRP/WWRP

Asian/Indian

Monsoon

Typhoon

Landfall

SoWMex

Japan

Palau


Thorpex pacific asian regional campaign t parc tropical cyclone structure 2008

THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/ Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008

  • August-September 2008

  • Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with significant EU participation and financial contribution

    • Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:

      • tropical cyclone formation

      • intensification

      • Motion/track

      • decay and/or ET

    • North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in

      • tropical and midlatitude predictability

      • tropical cyclones,

        • ET

      • intense extratropical cyclogenesis

  • International Collaborators: U.S. (NSF, ONR), Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada, France, U.K., Taiwan


  • Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia

    TY Tokage, October 2004

    Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system

    Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    Adaptive observations and plane sequencing

    NRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi (2007)

    SV Graphic supplied by Dr.Carolyn Reynolds, NRL Monterey


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    THORPEX Working Group on Predictability and Dynamical Processes

    Interest Group 4: The Impact of Extratropical Transition on the Downstream Midlatitude Predictability

    Sarah Jones1 and Patrick Harr21Universitat Karlsruhe 2Naval Postgraduate School

    GFS ensemble members

    +00 0000 UTC 16 Sep 2003

    500 hPa height (m) at a

    240 m interval

    Hurricane Isabel

    GFS 500 hPa ensemble

    +108 h

    VT 1200 UTC 20 Sep 03


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS

    Impacts on Numerical Model Performance

    Hurricane

    Maria

    TY Saola

    TY Nabi


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    09/09

    08/09

    07/09

    06/09

    05/09

    04/09

    03/09

    02/09

    01/09

    31/08

    29/08

    30/08

    Variability among ensemble members as a measure of the predictability downstream from an ET event


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    • Summary: Major Science Issues

    • Mechanisms

    • - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics

      • - influence of TC structure

        • - outflow

        • - diabatic process and their impacts on the midlatitude flow

      • - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics

    Midlatitude impactregion

    Tropical cyclone

    core region

    Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    • Summary: Major Science Issues

    • Mechanisms

    • - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics

      • - influence of TC structure

        • - outflow

        • - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow

      • - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics

  • Predictability (understanding and assessment)

    • - Ensemble spread

    • - Forecast error growth

    • - Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response

  • - Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle

  • Predictability (increase)

  • - Predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted observations

  • - test new strategies and observational systems

  • - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.


  • Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    200 hPa meridional wind anomalies

    Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response

    Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    Ex-TY Nabi

    Ex-TY Saola


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    High Impact

    Weather

    PANDOWAE

    Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector

    • A new German research group for THORPEX PDP research

    • Partners:

    • Sarah Jones (Speaker), Doris Anwender, Ulli Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier (University of Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe)

    • Heini Wernli, Volkmar Wirth (University of Mainz)

    • George Craig, Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Weissmann (DLR)

    • Dieter Peters (Leibniz Institute for Atmospheric Physics)

    • Conny Schwierz (University of Leeds)

    • 2 Projects contributing directly to T-PARC (despite name of group!):

    • 1) The impact of extratropical transition on downstream predictability

    • (PI: Jones, 1 Postdoc, 3 Ph.D. students)

    • Data denial and data impact studies for ET in collaboration with ECMWF

    • Investigation of singular vectors targeted on tropical cyclones and their impact on

    • ECMWF EPS forecasts

    • TIGGE case studies with high resolution modelling

    • Idealised modelling and PV inversion

    • 2) Adaptive observing strategies for active airborne remote-sensing instruments

    • (PI: Weissmann, 1 Ph.D. student) – see Martin’s talk


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    0030 UTC 15 July 2007 TY Man-Yi

    NRL P-3 all FL 150

    OKO – 1 (33oN,141oE) 212 n mi

    1 – 2 (30oN, 142.5oE) 225 n mi

    2 – 3 (31.5oN, 146oE) 232 n mi

    3 – 4 (35oN, 142.5oE) 315 n mi

    4 – OKO 185 n mi

    1169 n mi

    Drops at waypoints and 60 n mi intervals

    RJSM

    RJTA

    DLR Falcon Leg 1

    1287 n mi

    TC outflow-Jet Interaction

    Leg 2: 1414 n mi

    TC outflow – Jet Interaction

    NRL P-3

    1986 n mi

    ET Ridge Building, warm frontogenesis

    RODN

    WC-130

    1787 n mi

    Decaying TC Core

    FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling stop at MSJ


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    DRIFTSONDEReleased from Hawaii

    Altitude of 20-70 hPa

    Approximately 7 days to drift over the

    Phillipine Sea

    Dropsonde release controlled from Boulder, CO


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    Driftsonde center,

    Boulder, CO

    Okinawa

    Japan

    Operations center,

    Monterey, CA

    Taiwan

    Aircraft locations, and

    aircraft operations centers

    Driftsonde release,

    Hawaii

    Guam

    Summary

    T-PARC and collaborating projects constitute a

    GLOBAL OPERATION


    Upgraded russian radiosonde network for ipy

    Subtropical operating region

    Driftsonde, NRL P-3,

    DOTSTAR, WC-130

    TC Intensification and structure change

    Recurvature, initiation of ET

    TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction

    Tropical operating region

    Driftsonde, NRL P-3,

    DOTSTAR, WC-130

    Tropical Measurements

    Large-scale circulation,

    deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves,

    TC formation

    T-PARC Components

    TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005

    Midlatitude operating region

    NRL P-3, FALCON

    Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature),

    Downstream Impacts

    Japan, Atsugi, NAF

    ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis

    Okinawa,

    Kadena AFB

    Guam, Andersen AFB


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