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Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management

Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management Manager for All Star IAM Australian Share Fund Feb 2014. Disclaimer.

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Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management

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  1. Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management Manager for All Star IAM Australian Share Fund Feb 2014

  2. Disclaimer The material shown in this presentation has been prepared and issued by Ventura Investment Management Limited, ABN 49 092 375 258, AFSL 253045 (Ventura). Equity Trustees Limited ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL 240975 (EQT) is the responsible entity of the Ventura and All Star series of funds. Information contained in this document is of a general nature only. It is not intended as advice, as it does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Investment can only be made on an application form attached to the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or through an IDPS operator . Copies of the PDS are available from Ventura or your financial planner.

  3. Contents • Performance – 6% outperformance since June 30 • Portfolio changes – no major changes, trimming • Share Market Outlook – strong gains ahead • International economy Outlook - normal • Why we still like resource shares – cheap, growth • Australian economic outlook – improving • Why we like property, non-food retail and builders • Portfolio positioning • Outlook for performance

  4. $1 in Aust Equity Fund vs ASX200As at 7 Feb 2014

  5. Portfolio Review Recent stock additions/removals/increases/decreases • Move to over weight in listed property • Trim outperforming discretionary retailers • Trim outperforming industrials – steel • Trim outperforming internet stocks • Trim outperforming iron ore stocks above limit • Increase underperforming gold stocks • Increase underperforming small metal stocks • Trimmed Macquarie Group, QBE, bought AMP; traded Alumina Corp 5

  6. Share Market Outlook 6

  7. Target is 6000 to match recovery after5 year bear markets in 1973and 1987 Australia’s largest share market declines and subsequent recoveries 7

  8. ASX300 P/E can support rise to 5800-6000

  9. Consensus earnings revisions

  10. International Economic Outlook:Global Manufacturing Picks Up

  11. ML “Global Wave” and Global Earnings

  12. Global steel output strong due to China

  13. Chinese electricity output very strong

  14. Chinese industrial output solid growth

  15. Chinese market bottomed but not yet firing

  16. Why we still like resources: Resources relative to All Ords High 1.26 in 2008 Now 0.8 Low 0.34 in 1999

  17. Small Resources relative to Large Res. High 1.5 1996 1.16 late 2010 Low 0.75 2001 Low 0.7 2008/9 0.53 now

  18. Australian Dollar in $US x High $1.10 Early 2011 High $0.82 1996 x Low? $0.87 Jan 14 x x Low $0.64 2008/9 Low $0.48 2001 x

  19. Heaviest shorting of $A since 1993

  20. Huge resource stock cash flow coming

  21. Australian Economic Outlook:NAB Business Conditions at 3-year high

  22. NAB Employment Intentions Rising Strongly

  23. Why we like property, retailers and builders!Value of housing finance ($bn/month)

  24. Current Portfolio Positioning Sector allocations (Feb ‘14) 24

  25. Outlook for performance • IAM performed very strongly after GFC • Portfolio positions similar now to post GFC period • Same factors driving markets now • Shares still undervalued relative to bonds and cash • quantitative easing and rising commodity prices • very low ownership of shares and “risk assets” • bubble in “safe havens” • Expect strong rise in very undervalued market led by resources • IAM positioned for move 6000 by March-June 2014 25

  26. Thank you 26

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