Update on Transit Technology Choices. Corey W. Hill Chief of Public Transportation June 2009. Background. West Virginia University did a life cycle cost (LCC) analysis on four types of bus technologies in 2007.
Update on Transit Technology Choices
Corey W. Hill
Chief of Public Transportation
Hybrid Technology had a much higher capital cost than diesel technology and CNG was slightly higher than diesel
Operating cost was similar for the four bus types. CNG was the lowest and hybrids offered the best fuel economy
Diesel buses were the most economic technology and diesel buses fueled by B20 biodiesel were slightly higher due to the added expense of the fuel
Hybrid buses were attractive in offering emissions advantages
Fuel economy and emissions depended strongly on bus route and operating conditions
2008 analysis examined four scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Annual Energy Outlook published by the Energy Information Administration predicted the diesel price would be $3.50/gal and CNG price would be $2.00/gal in 2008. Average forecast for the first 6 months of 2008 was significantly higher so WVU authors aligned forecast curve with the 2008 average price of diesel ($4.07/gal).
Scenario 2 – Fuel prices are 25% higher than Scenario 1
Scenario 3 – Fuel prices are 50% higher than Scenario 1
Scenario 4 – Fuel prices are 100% higher than in Scenario 1
Hybrid technology had a higher cost than diesel technology (28%). Hybrids offered the best fuel economy, however, savings were offset by purchase price and battery replacement cost.
If 80% federal subsidy was considered, hybrids and diesels were similar on cost when the price of diesel averaged $5.00/gal for 12 years.
CNG buses are the most economic technology. Purchase of 100 buses dilutes CNG infrastructure cost in the overall cost. Diesel was second.