Update on transit technology choices
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Update on Transit Technology Choices. Corey W. Hill Chief of Public Transportation June 2009. Background. West Virginia University did a life cycle cost (LCC) analysis on four types of bus technologies in 2007.

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Update on Transit Technology Choices

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Update on transit technology choices

Update on Transit Technology Choices

Corey W. Hill

Chief of Public Transportation

June 2009


Background

Background

  • West Virginia University did a life cycle cost (LCC) analysis on four types of bus technologies in 2007.

  • Analysis estimated and compared total capital and operating costs on purchasing and operating four bus technologies from 2007 to 2019.

    • 1. 100 diesel hybrid-electric buses

    • 2. 100 conventional diesel buses using ultra low sulfur diesel

    • 3. 100 compressed natural gas (CNG) buses

    • 4. 100 conventional diesel buses using B20 biodiesel

  • WVU updated analysis in September 2008 to reflect dramatic increase in diesel cost.

  • WVU updated analysis again in May 2009 as part of a TCRP report that is awaiting publication.


2007 study results

Hybrid Technology had a much higher capital cost than diesel technology and CNG was slightly higher than diesel

Operating cost was similar for the four bus types. CNG was the lowest and hybrids offered the best fuel economy

Diesel buses were the most economic technology and diesel buses fueled by B20 biodiesel were slightly higher due to the added expense of the fuel

Hybrid buses were attractive in offering emissions advantages

Fuel economy and emissions depended strongly on bus route and operating conditions

2007 Study Results


2008 background

2008 Background

2008 analysis examined four scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Annual Energy Outlook published by the Energy Information Administration predicted the diesel price would be $3.50/gal and CNG price would be $2.00/gal in 2008. Average forecast for the first 6 months of 2008 was significantly higher so WVU authors aligned forecast curve with the 2008 average price of diesel ($4.07/gal).

Scenario 2 – Fuel prices are 25% higher than Scenario 1

Scenario 3 – Fuel prices are 50% higher than Scenario 1

Scenario 4 – Fuel prices are 100% higher than in Scenario 1


2008 study results

2008 Study Results

Hybrid technology had a higher cost than diesel technology (28%). Hybrids offered the best fuel economy, however, savings were offset by purchase price and battery replacement cost.

If 80% federal subsidy was considered, hybrids and diesels were similar on cost when the price of diesel averaged $5.00/gal for 12 years.

CNG buses are the most economic technology. Purchase of 100 buses dilutes CNG infrastructure cost in the overall cost. Diesel was second.


Update on transit technology choices

www.drpt.virginia.gov

804-786-4440


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