Joseph Enyimu Economist Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) Uganda

1. The Role of Indicators of Sustainable Development for Climate Change Policy and Analysis: A Ugandan Perspective Joseph Enyimu Economist Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) Uganda Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Kampala

2. Outline • Background • Contextual Issues for SD in Uganda • SD Indicators: Gaps & Challenges • Climate Change in Uganda • Way Forward Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Kampala

3. Background • Uganda heading to its 4th generation PRSP • Need for climate change response: independent evaluation of the implementation of the 1st to 3rd PRSP • Changing structure of the economy- share of agriculture in GDP: 62% (1985/86) to 17% (2007/08) - share of services in GDP: 30% (1985/86) to 56% (2007/08)- share of industry in GDP: 8% (1985/86) to 27% (2007/08) • Highly ENR-dependent economy- 70% of labour force employed in agriculture sector Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Kampala

4. Contextual Issues for SD in Uganda • High Population Growth Rate (3.2%)- Soil degradation - depletion of vital natural resources • Limited Energy Options- unsustainable use of forests: heavy reliance on wood-fuel (90% of hh) • Human Settlement & Urbanisation- river bank settlements causing silting of rivers and lakes- wetland encroachment & degradation- poor waste disposal and management • Climate Change Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Kampala

5. SD Indicators: Gaps & Challenges • Monitoring convergence of economic, social and environmental policy objectives • Broadening the scope of development theory: disproportionately greater focus on economic development and short/medium-term social stability- conversation of natural forest land into commercial farm land- sustainable logging of forests • Ineffective pricing of development interventions: absence of the opportunity cost of economic development Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Kampala

6. Climate Change in Uganda • Societal awareness: Low • Policy priority status: Low • Statistical measures: Lacking Expressions: • Rise in crop failures due to increasingly unpredictable weather patterns • Rising incidents of weather-related disasters • Social conflicts arising from land disputes associated with declining soil productivity, depletion of livelihood supporting natural resource Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Kampala

7. Conclusion For ISD for Climate Change to play a role in climate change policy and analysis in Uganda, there is need to: • Generally:- demonstrate more relevance to the national agenda of poverty reduction, economic development & social stability • Specifically: - make the empirical link between climate change and social conflict - an SD deficit indicator- mainstream the opportunity cost (in terms of ENR) of economic and social development into the national accounts system Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Kampala