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Greater Minnesota Transit Investment Plan

Greater Minnesota Transit Investment Plan. TAC November 17, 2010. Technical Analysis Review. Passenger Demand Projections Service Hour Projections Operating Cost Estimates. Methodology. Passenger Needs. Service Needs. County Population Characteristics. User Trip Rates.

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Greater Minnesota Transit Investment Plan

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  1. Greater Minnesota Transit Investment Plan TACNovember 17, 2010

  2. Technical Analysis Review • Passenger Demand Projections • Service Hour Projections • Operating Cost Estimates

  3. Methodology Passenger Needs Service Needs County Population Characteristics User Trip Rates County Population Distribution Service Level Rates Future Service Hours Cost Per Hour by Service Area Future Passenger Demand Future Service Hours Future Service Costs Operating Costs

  4. Passenger Demand Model Results Annual Passenger Demand: 2010: 18.1 million 2015: 18.8 million 2025: 20.9 million 2009 actual rides delivered: 11.0 million • Current services meet about 60% of projected demand • Higher (near 70%) in large urban areas

  5. Service Hours Model Results Annual Service Hour Needs: 2010: 1.8 million 2015: 2.0 million 2025: 2.1 million 2009 actual: 1.03 million • Current services meet about 57% of projected need

  6. Operating Cost to Meet 100% of Service Needs Annual Cost Projections*: 2010: $103 million 2015: $122 million 2025: $165 million 2009 actual costs: $55 million • *Capital costs not included in these figures. Future year costs adjusted for 2.0-2.5% inflation.

  7. Operating Costs to Meet Future Needs 2015 Target level* of 80% of total needs =$98 million 2025 Target level* of 90% of total needs = $148 million 2009 actual costs= $55 million • *Capital costs not included in these figures. Future year costs adjusted for 2.0-2.5% inflation.

  8. Investment Plan Priorities • Preservation- defined • Expansion- proposed • Contraction-proposed Priorities will be re-evaluated every four years by Mn/DOT and adjusted as needed.

  9. Preservation of Services Mn/DOT will continue to fund systems that: • Demonstrate local financial capacity • Meet performance measures set by peer group • Cost/passenger • Cost/service hour • Passengers/service hour • System revenue to cost ratio • Compliance with administrative and reporting procedures

  10. Expansion of Services (proposed) Highest priorities for investment of new funds: • Establish service in unserved counties to fill in gaps (legislative priority) • Provide longer hours (morning and night) to serve more trips • Expand multi-county services to link more communities

  11. Secondary Expansion (proposed) • Provide service on more days of the week in areas with limited schedules • Expand service frequencies and coverage • Expand services to provide consistent levels of service statewide

  12. Contraction of Services (proposed) If funding decreases, the following guidelines will determine contraction priorities: • Expansion will not be considered • Redesign under-performing services according to performance measures • Reduce state and federal funding to under-performing services according to performance measures

  13. Identified Program Management Tools • Increase use of technology to gain efficiencies • Refine services using service level performance measures • Coordinate with other transit providers including volunteers, 5310 programs, and taxis • Increase marketing to reach more customers

  14. Expansion • Mn/DOT’s top priorities for additions to existing service are: • Expand multi-county services to link more communities. • Provide longer hours (morning and night) to serve more trips. Mn/DOT will provide resources to start new services in geographic areas without public transit service before expanding existing services. Preservation Mn/DOT will first maintain the viability of existing public transit systems that are funded by federal and state dollars through the annual allocation of financial assistance. Systems that demonstrate local financial commitment and meet system-level performance measure tests* will receive preference for state and federal funding to provide service hours. *Demonstration will be determined on a pass/fail basis. Future Federal and State Funding Draft Transit Investment Priorities • Contraction • Should contraction become necessary, Mn/DOT will take the following steps: • Funding for system expansion will not be considered. • Redesign under-performing services in small urban, large urban, and rural areas according to service-level performance measures. • Reduce state and federal funding to under-performing services in small urban, large urban, and rural areas according to performance measures.

  15. Must take remedial steps: These steps may include but are not limited to: Engage in more intensive community outreach and marketing. Conduct market research activities in order to realign routes or service hours to more effectively meet customer needs. Reassign service hours to another unmet need. System - Level Performance Measure Example • Transit System A • Doesn’ t Comply with reporting • Cost per passenger (Above Average) • Pass Per Hour (Below Average) • Cost Per Hour (Above Average) • Farebox Recovery (Below Average) **Within 20% of Average

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