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The NOAA Satellite Altimetry Program: Closing the Sea Level Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace. Laury Miller, Eric Leuliette & John Lillibridge NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry Silver Spring, MD OCO Annual Meeting Silver Spring, MD September 3 - 5, 2008. Program Objectives.

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The NOAA Satellite Altimetry Program: Closing the Sea Level Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

Laury Miller, Eric Leuliette & John Lillibridge

NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry

Silver Spring, MD

OCO Annual Meeting

Silver Spring, MD

September 3 - 5, 2008


Program objectives
Program Objectives Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

  • Create a Sea Level Climate Record -- Transition T/P-Jason series to full operational status

    • Jason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSAT

    • Jason-3 - 2013? & Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSAT

  • Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget --

    • Need budget in order to understand processes responsible for sea level rise, decadal & inter-annual variability.

    • Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide gauge observations.

  • Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise

    • If models fail to accurately predict the past 15 years of SLR, what good are they for making 50-100 year predictions?


Jason 2 ostm launch june 20 2008
Jason-2/OSTM Launch Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace June 20, 2008

  • 4-Partner Mission: NASA, CNES, NOAA & EUMETSAT.

  • Currently operating in tandem mode, flying 50 seconds behind Jason-1 on same ground track.

  • 3 hr OGDR’s available to OST Science Team and NOAA operational users via DDS.

  • 1-2 day IGDR’s (better orbits, pass segmented) available via CLASS.

  • Nov. 2008 -- OGDR’s available to public via CLASS

  • Apr-May 2009 -- IGDR’s & GDR’s available to public via CLASS

  • NOAA Project Scientist -- John Lillibridge

  • NOAA’s first operational oceanographic satellite!


NASA/JPL Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

J-2/OSTM System Overview

Jason 2

Usingen

Wallops/ Fairbanks

NOAA

EUMETSAT

CNES


Excellent agreement between j 2 j 1

Jason-1 Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

Jason-2

Excellent agreement between J-2 & J-1

  • J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008.

  • Near real time products from NOAA & EUMETSAT since 22-July 2008.

  • Offline products from CNES since 22-Aug-2008.


Jason 3 joint noaa eumetsat project proposed 2010 start 2013 launch for overlap with j 2 ostm

Jason-3 Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace … Joint NOAA & EUMETSAT project

Proposed 2010 Start, 2013 Launch for Overlap with J-2/OSTM


Objective: Create Ocean Equivalent of CO Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace2 ClimateRecord

Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa

50+ Years

Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

15+ Years


Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace


NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/


NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/


NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/


NOAA/LSA Altimeter Calibration Website Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

(Under Development)


Improve the IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace


The Problem: How accurate are the IPCC projections? Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

Satellite altimetry

The additional land-ice uncertainty

Reconstructed record from tide gauges

Model projection

Observed rise at the upper limit of IPCC TAR projection that includes a “land-ice uncertainty”

Rahmstorf et al., Science, 2007


IPCC FAR Projections Probably Not Much Better Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

Model Global Mean Sea Level Trends During TP-era, (1990-2000)Based onFAR Climate of the 20th Century Scenario (20C3M).

ModelGMSLStericRatio

(mm/yr) (mm/yr)

CGCM3.1 0.32 0.79 2.47

GISS AOM 6.11 3.51 0.57

GISS E20/Russell 1.99 0.72 0.36

INMCM3.0 1.34 1.38 1.03

MIROC3.2 hires 2.71 2.32 0.85

MRI CGCM23.2 3.98 5.69 1.42

(Leuliette et al., 2006)


Suggestion noaa obs model program to improve projections of sea level rise
Suggestion: NOAA Obs/Model Program to Improve Projections of Sea Level Rise

  • Model projections don’t agree well with 15+ year altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

  • Many elements already exist in NOAA or are heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason altimetry (a new NOAA operational responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and modeling capabilities.

  • Possible broad agency involvement: OAR, NESDIS, NOS

  • Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September


  • Model projections don’t agree very well with 15+ year altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

  • Many elements already exist in NOAA or are heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason altimetry (a new NOAA operational responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and modeling capabilities.

  • Possible broad agency involvement: OAR (OCO, GFDL, PMEL, AOML), NESDIS(STAR/LSA,NODC/OCL), NOS

  • Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September


Altimetry now used in hurricane intensity forecasting
Altimetry Now Used In Hurricane Intensity Forecasting altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.


Geosat/Tide Gauge Comparison: Old Orbits vs New Orbits altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

ERM

GM


Jason 2 vs jason 1 coverage
Jason-2 altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.vs Jason-1 Coverage

J2 better radiometer coverage

  • Tandem mode - J2 (cycle 2) flying 50 seconds behind J1(cycle 241) on same ground track.

  • Altimeter range measurement: J2 nearly 100% over land & ocean; J1 missing over land and near (<20 km) coasts.

  • Sea level anomaly (sla): J1 & J2 coverage lose mostly due to radiometer rain/ice corruption flag


Jason 2 ostm cal val data release

Jason-2 altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

Jason-1

Sea Level Anomaly (cm)

Sea Level Anomaly (cm)

(Courtesy of J. Lillibridge - NOAA Project Scientist)

Sponsor: NOAA, NASA, CNES, & EUMETSAT

Jason-2/OSTM Cal/Val & Data Release

J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008. Near real time (OGDR) products from NOAA & EUMETSAT since 22-July 2008. Offline (IGDR) products from CNES released to SWT on 22-Aug-2008.

Significance: NOAA's role in OSTM/Jason-2 includes satellite command/control, NRT data production, and archive & distribution. This mission assures continuity of the 15 year global sea level climate data record begun by Topex & Jason-1, with sufficient overlap for cross calibration and validation.

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/idm/2008/jul-2008-jason-2-on-the-tracks-of-jason-1/index.html


Coastal satellite altimetry
Coastal Satellite Altimetry altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

  • Altimeter measurements of sea surface height (SSH), significant wave height (SWH), and wind speed have many potential applications in coastal zones, despite the common perception that altimetry does not “work” near coast.

  • The Problem: Altimeter data processing typically optimized for open ocean applications. Coastal sampling, editing and correction issues need to be addressed…e.g.

    • Use of 10 hz along track sampling instead of 1 hz

    • Data flagging optimized for coasts instead of open ocean.

    • Path length corrections optimized to minimize land contamination

    • Improved near-shore tide models

  • The Solution: collaborative programs aimed at improving measurements and developing products. The Europeans are far ahead of the U.S. in this area.


NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/


Create a Climate Record of Sea Level --Transition T/P-Jason series to operational statusJason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSATJason-3 - 2013? & Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSATObserve & Understand the Sea Level Budget --Need budget in order to understand processes responsible for sea level rise, decadal variability, etc.Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide gauge observations.Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level RiseIf models fail to accurately predict the past 15 years of SLR, what good are they for making 50-100 year predictions?


Climate Monitoring Requires Foresight & Commitment series to operational status

Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa

50+ Years

Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

15+ Years


Ar4 model based projections of sea level rise
AR4 Model-based Projections series to operational statusof Sea Level Rise

  • Note:

  • No upper bound

  • No likelihood

  • No best estimate

  • Model-based estimate only; no expert judgment

(meters)

From: AR4 WGI SPM Courtesy of Ron Stouffer, GFDL/NOAA



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