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Performance Monitoring’s Three Blind Spots Ricardo Wilson-Grau. USAID Complexity -Aware Monitoring Discovery Launch 21 October 2013 Washington, DC. Fish Soup Development Story. Inspired by Monika Jetzin , Global Water Partnership , Hungary. Basic logic model. Vision and Mission.

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performance monitoring s three blind spots ricardo wilson grau

Performance Monitoring’s Three Blind Spots Ricardo Wilson-Grau

USAID Complexity-Aware Monitoring Discovery Launch

21 October 2013

Washington, DC

[email protected]

fish soup development story

Fish Soup Development Story

Inspired by Monika Jetzin, Global Water Partnership , Hungary

[email protected]

basic logic model
Basic logic model

Vision and

Mission

IMPACT

результат

OUTCOMES

результат

OUTPUTS

результат

ACTIVITIES

INPUTS

Plan

Time

[email protected]

slide4

Impact

    • Children are healthy adults
  • Outcome
    • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly
  • Output
    • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world
  • Activities
    • Mother or father carefully prepare and cook all the ingredients
  • Inputs or resources
    • Parents get together fish, fresh vegetables, water, barley, spices, pot, source of heat

[email protected]

slide5

But the real world is more dynamic

First blind spot:

Unintended results

  • Impact
    • Children are healthy adults
  • Outcome
    • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly
  • Output
    • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world
  • Activities
    • Mother or father carefully prepare and cook all the ingredients
  • Inputs or resources
    • Parents get together fish, fresh vegetables, water, barley, spices, pot, source of heat

[email protected]

slide6

First blind spot:

Unintended results

  • Impact
    • Children are healthy adults
  • Outcome
    • Hog farmer goes out of business
  • Outcome
    • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly
  • Outcome
    • Local library features great grandmother’s fish soup
  • Outcome
    • Other parents begin to use the fish soup recipe
  • Output
    • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world
  • Outcome
    • Children invite friends for fish soup dinner
  • Outcome
    • Children learn how to cook great grandmother’s fish soup

[email protected]

basic logic model1
Basic Logic Model

Vision and

Mission

But when the real world is more complex

IMPACT

OUTCOMES

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES

INPUTS

Plan

Time

Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org

slide8

Vision and

Mission

OUTPUT

OUTPUT

OUTPUT

ACTIVITY

OUTPUT

ACTIVITY

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

INPUTS

ACTIVITY

Plan

OUTPUT

Time

INPUTS

ACTIVITY

INPUTS

INPUTS

2 nd and 3 rd blind spots
2nd and 3rd blind spots

Alternative causes

Multiple pathways

  • Outcome
    • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly
  • Output
    • 1, 2, 3, 4 friends find the soup delicious
  • Output
    • Teacher preaches “fish is only flesh fit for human consumption”
  • Output
    • TV documentary on fish as antidote to obesity
  • Output
    • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world
in sum
In sum

“The recent meta-evaluation of 340 USAID evaluation reports found that only 15% reported on unplanned effects, and only 10% discussed causes in addition to USAID interventions that might be contributing to results.”

Complexity-aware monitoring can be a solution.

[email protected]

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