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Climate Change and Water Availability Models. Incorporation of Climate Change in Water Availability Modeling by: Wurbs, RA. Applying climate change predictions Clark Siler 6 Dec 2007. Physical Climatology Class Presentation University of Texas at Austin. Freshwater Demand is Increasing.

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climate change and water availability models

Climate Change and Water Availability Models

Incorporation of Climate Change in

Water Availability Modeling

by: Wurbs, RA

Applying climate change predictions

Clark Siler

6 Dec 2007

Physical Climatology Class Presentation

University of Texas at Austin

freshwater demand is increasing
Freshwater Demand is Increasing
  • Increases in Population
  • Urbanization
  • Increasing Wealth
  • Aquifer Depletion
  • Pollution
  • Climate Change
water availability in texas
Water Availability in Texas
  • Drought of 1996
    • Widespread drought where decision-makers had no information on water availability
  • Senate Bill 1, “Water Bill”
    • Passed in response to drought
  • Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP)
    • Texas’ official water availability model
water rights analysis package
Water Rights Analysis Package

Origin and Use

Suite of programs to digitally model and manage water rights in Texas

Developed by Dr. Ralph Wurbs of the Texas Water Resources Institute at Texas A&M

Created ~20 years ago, but gained increased use after Senate Bill 1 (1997)

Official Water Availability Model of Texas

naturalized flows7
Naturalized Flows
  • WRAP is Based on Naturalized Flows
  • NF naturalized flow
  • GF gaged flow
  • D water supply diversions upstream
  • RF return flow upstream
  • EP reservoir evaporation minus precipitation
  • DS change in storage in upstream reservoirs
  • Used to predict reliabilities (water availability)

NF = GF +SDi – SRFi + SEPi + SDSi

EP

DS

D

RF

GF

NF

wrap and climate change
WRAP and Climate Change

WRAP cannot directly model climate change

WRAP inputs can be modified to reflect climate change modeled predictions

modeling climate change
Modeling Climate Change

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

George Box, industrial statistician

  • Models Used in Main Paper:
    • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
    • Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CCCma)
soil and water assessment tool swat
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
  • Inputs:
    • Precipitation
    • Max/Min Temperature
    • Land Use
    • Soils
    • Land Management
    • Topography
    • Hydrogeology
    • Weather
  • Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS):
    • Relative Humidity
    • Solar Radiation
    • Wind Speed

SWAT is a watershed modeling tool

  • Output:
    • Daily Streamflow

http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/

canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis gcm cccma
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CCCma)
  • Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics Model
    • Inputs include:
    • Output includes precipitation and max/min temperature
    • Includes climate-change scenario, IS92a, which employs CO2 increase of 1% per year
    • Not a toy model
    • CCCma predictions are relatively high compared to other models
      • Aggressive climate change model
      • Is this preferable in this case?

http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/

  • specific humidity
  • precipitation
  • soil moisture
  • cloud cover
  • moist convection
  • radiative heating
  • CO2 concentration
  • sea level pressure
  • global mean surface temperature
  • ocean circulation
  • sea ice / snow
  • seasonally frozen soil moisture
combining models
Combining Models
  • Uncertainty may be introduced when combining a global and basin-scale model
climate change and wrap
Climate Change and WRAP
  • Precipitation and temperature modeled results for 2040-2060 are retrieved from the CCCma GCM results: one set reflecting climate change, one without climate change.
  • GCM modeled data is used to alter SWAT input which is used as a representation of 2050 climate.
  • SWAT uses this data along with historical data to produce sets of daily streamflow values. These are used to adjust WRAP inputs of naturalized flows (and reservoir evaporation).
  • WRAP is run with historical and climate changed data. Results are used to assess possible future water availability.

CCCma

Output

Input

Output

Input

WRAP

Output

Future Water

Availability

conclusion
Conclusion
  • Climate change analyses introduce additional uncertainties to the highly stochastic water resources environment
  • WRAP can be used to model future climate changed water availability
    • Can analyze various climate change scenarios
  • Similar processes can be executed to use any combination of compatible climate models

Physical Climatology Class Presentation

University of Texas at Austin

Physical Climatology Class Presentation

University of Texas at Austin

personal information
Clark SilerGraduate StudentUniversity of Texas at Austin Geospatial Hydrology Water ResourcesCRWRBS – Brigham Young University Civil [email protected]Personal Information

Nov 2007

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