21 st Century Hydrology for Dams

1. 21st Century Hydrology for Dams

2. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

3. 21st Century Technology • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) • LiDAR • 2D Hydrology • 2D Hydrualics

4. Current Standards and Regulations

5. Current Standards and Regulations Hazard Classification System • High Hazard Potential • Significant Hazard Potential • Low Hazard Potential

6. PMF for High Hazard Dams

7. Current Issues

8. Current Issues

9. Current Issues

10. Current Issues

11. Current Issues

12. Current Issues “Over the past six years, for every deficient, high hazard potential dam repaired, nearly two more were declared deficient.”

13. 21st Century Technology • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) • LiDAR • 2D Hydrology • 2D Hydrualics Photo courtesy Lasico Photo courtesy Geoslopes

14. 20th Century Hydrology

15. 21st Century Hydrology

16. 20th Century Hydraulics

17. 21st Century Hydraulics

18. 21st Century Hydraulics courtesy University of Mississippi

19. 2D Hydraulics courtesy University of Mississippi

20. 2D Hydraulics courtesy University of Mississippi

21. 2D Hydraulics

22. 2D Hydraulics

23. 2D Hydraulics

24. 2D Hydraulics

25. 2D Hydraulics

26. 2D Hydraulics

27. 2D Hydraulics

28. 2D Hydraulics

29. 2D Hydraulics

30. 2D Hydraulics

31. 2D Hydraulics

32. 2D Hydraulics

33. 2D Hydraulics

34. 2D Hydraulics

35. 2D Hydraulics

36. 2D Hydraulics

37. 2D Hydraulics

38. 21st Century Technology • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) • LiDAR • 2D Hydrology • 2D Hydrualics Photo courtesy Lasico

39. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

40. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

41. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

42. Risk Analysis • Primary Authors • Dr. Arthur Miller, P.E. (AECOM) • Schweiger, Hess, Holderbaum, Kline, Raorabaugh, Dickey, and Richards (Gannett Fleming) • Steering Committee: • James Gallagher, P.E. • Shyang-Chen S. Lin, P.E. • Brian Long • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John H. Moyle, P.E. • Laurence Siroky, P.E. • Reviewed by Research Work Group (National Dam Safety Review Board): • Brian Becker • Jason Boyle, P.E. • Robert H. Dalton • James Demby • Patrick Diederich, P.E. • Greg Hanson • Lisa Krosley • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John Ritchey • Michael K. Sharp • Hal Van Aller • Eugene P Zeizel DRAFT

43. Risk Analysis • Primary Authors • Dr. Arthur Miller, P.E. (AECOM) • Schweiger, Hess, Holderbaum, Kline, Raorabaugh, Dickey, and Richards (Gannett Fleming) • Steering Committee: • James Gallagher, P.E. • Shyang-Chen S. Lin, P.E. • Brian Long • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John H. Moyle, P.E. • Laurence Siroky, P.E. • Reviewed by Research Work Group (National Dam Safety Review Board): • Brian Becker • Jason Boyle, P.E. • Robert H. Dalton • James Demby • Patrick Diederich, P.E. • Greg Hanson • Lisa Krosley • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John Ritchey • Michael K. Sharp • Hal Van Aller • Eugene P Zeizel FEMA’s new guidance to states will include provisions to allow risk assessment when selecting the appropriate inflow design floods for dams. DRAFT

44. Risk Analysis Annual Risk of Death • Any Accident (1 in 2,500) • Hospital Infection (1 in 3,000) • Car Accident (1 in 8,000)

45. Broadly Accepted and Tolerable Risk • Broadly Acceptable Risk • Tolerable Risk - People are prepared to accept risk to secure benefits • Risks are properly assessed and managed • Risks are reduced to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) • Risks are periodically reviewed • Requires ongoing review and management courtesy USACE

46. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event X Consequences

47. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event X Consequences

48. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event (1 in 10) X Consequences

49. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event (1 in 10) X Consequences (100 lives lost)

50. Risk Analysis Risk (1 in 1,000 chance of 100 lives lost) = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event (1 in 10) X Consequences (100 lives lost)