Ethnic change in the populations of the developed world. European Population Conference, Barcelona Thursday 10 July 2.30. D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc with the assistance of M.D. Smith. Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford http://www.spsw.ox.ac.uk/oxpop.
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D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc
with the assistance of M.D. Smith.
Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford
TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006 with TFR from ONS registration data (total population).data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages. NB estimates before 1980 based on small numbers.
Transition of UK Indian total fertility,1965 – 2006, annual estimates and 7-year moving average. Source: Labour Force Surveys, own-child method
Projection of UK populations 2001-2051, combined into three major groups.Assumptions: near-convergent fertility, constant migration, mortality as in GAD 2004-based PP.
Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-51, grouped into ‘non-white’ and ‘white non-British’, to show the importance of migration.
UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and foreign / British ancestry.Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K; TFR 1.85)