Ethnic change in the populations of the developed world.
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 47

D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc with the assistance of M.D. Smith. PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 48 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Ethnic change in the populations of the developed world. European Population Conference, Barcelona Thursday 10 July 2.30. D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc with the assistance of M.D. Smith. Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford http://www.spsw.ox.ac.uk/oxpop.

Download Presentation

D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc with the assistance of M.D. Smith.

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Ethnic change in the populations of the developed world.European Population Conference, BarcelonaThursday 10 July 2.30

D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc

with the assistance of M.D. Smith.

Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford

http://www.spsw.ox.ac.uk/oxpop


Projecting foreign origin populations aims concepts and problems

Projecting ‘foreign – origin’ populations: aims, concepts and problems

  • Major concerns of projection: decline and ageing, more recently human capital.

  • Differential fertility and migration now also transforming population composition.

  • Beginnings of a new demographic transition? First demographic transition out of phase in different populations

  • Implications for change in identity, culture, religion and politics, provision of services.

  • Problems of definition, data and projection.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Should projections assume rapid absorption of immigrant populations, or persistence of demographic and other distinctiveness?

  • ‘foreign origin or background’ – projections assume that ‘third generation’ becomes statistically invisible.

  • ‘Ethnic’ and ‘racial’ definitions imply potential permanence.

  • But mixed origin populations may eventually predominate.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Netherlands 2005 – 2050. Percent of population of foreign origin with and without migration, to show effect of ‘two-generation’ rule.


Projections of population by origin a summary of sources

Projections of population by origin: a summary of sources.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Norway 2005 – 2050. Projection of population of foreign origin, in two major categories (Percent of total population).


United states 1999 2100 projection by race and hispanic origin

United States 1999 – 2100, projection by race and Hispanic origin.


Comparison of results of some european and us foreign origin projections

Comparison of results of some European and US ‘foreign-origin’ projections.


Problems in projecting uk ethnic minority populations

Problems in projecting UK ethnic minority populations

  • Base population available from (1971), 1991 and 2001 censuses, Labour Force Survey etc.

  • But no vital registration by ethnic origin

  • Ethnic categories unstable.

  • Different (indirect) methods of estimating fertility give different answers.

  • No life tables available yet.

  • Migration data weak, no data by ethnic origin.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic Origin: GHS women born 1929 – 1984. N.B. latest cohort incomplete.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

The ‘Own-Child’ Method of reconstructing birth-rates in past and current calendar years: Matching and allocation process.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

TFR, 1965-2001: Comparing UK LFS own-child estimates of TFR with TFR from ONS registration data (total population).


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages. NB estimates before 1980 based on small numbers.


Uk pakistani tfr trends 1987 2006 unsmoothed with confidence intervals to show range of error

UK Pakistani TFR trends 1987 – 2006 unsmoothed,with confidence intervals to show range of error


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Transition of UK Indian total fertility,1965 – 2006, annual estimates and 7-year moving average. Source: Labour Force Surveys, own-child method


Projection of fertility uk indian total fertility 1965 2006 and predicted to 2026 asymptote 1 53

Projection of fertility: UK Indian total fertility 1965 – 2006 and predicted to 2026 (asymptote 1.53)


Uk chinese tfr 1965 2006 asymptote 1 29

UK Chinese TFR 1965 – 2006: asymptote 1.29


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Convergence in fertility? some persistent differentials in US fertility.Source: US Bureau of the Census.


Tfr comparisons uk ethnic groups various sources

TFR comparisons, UK ethnic groups, various sources


Mortality

Mortality

  • Mortality statistics: ASMRs difficult to compute: small numbers, under-20s deficient.

  • Chinese probably have lowest death rates.

  • IMR mostly higher.

  • For initial projections, England and Wales life tables used. projected to 2051 according to GAD assumptions.

  • Large and Ghosh (2006), and Rees (2008) used differential SMRs derived from geographical areas.


Estimated life table for immigrants born in the west indies 2001 q x

Estimated life table for immigrants born in the West Indies, 2001 (qx)


Estimating migration by ethnic origin and the diversity of future trends

Estimating migration by ethnic origin, and the diversity of future trends.

  • UK migration data based on small sample, very broad categories only by citizenship, birthplace, country of origin. Ethnic origin inferred indirectly.

  • Recent trends and policy suggested further increase except asylum; these and official projections assume current level (unlikely).

  • Eastern European flow will fall with A8 growth; Labour migration will fall with recession; return migration to India; persistence of marriage migration; emigration drivers in Africa will continue.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

UK population projections 2006-81, 2006-based, GAD Principal Projection and variant migration assumptions.


Spouse migration to the uk 1973 2006 thousands

Spouse migration to the UK 1973 - 2006 (thousands)


Labour migration by work permit uk 1973 2006

Labour migration by work permit, UK 1973- 2006


Some uk projections

Some UK projections

  • Choices: to constrain or not to constrain? separate components or interactive? Migration numbers or rates?

  • Various other approaches: Large and Ghosh (2006); Rees (2008) and Bains (2006).

  • Diversity in fertility and migration

  • Mortality assumed to be England and Wales average

  • ‘Mixed’ populations begin to predominate.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Projection of UK populations 2001-2051, combined into three major groups.Assumptions: near-convergent fertility, constant migration, mortality as in GAD 2004-based PP.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-51, grouped into ‘non-white’ and ‘white non-British’, to show the importance of migration.


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and foreign / British ancestry.Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K; TFR 1.85)


Projection of uk black populations and mixed without intergenerational transfers 2001 2051 1000s

Projection of UK Black populations and ‘Mixed’ (without intergenerational transfers) 2001-2051 (1000s).


Projection of selected uk asian populations and other 2001 2051 1000s

Projection of selected UK Asian populations and ‘Other’, 2001-2051 (1000s).


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Births of mixed origin as proportion of all births to mothers of different ethnic groups, UK, 1992-2001


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Projection of Mixed populations, and Caribbean, with and without inter-generational contributions, UK 2001 – 2056(thousands).


Probabilistic projection 2001 2100 mixed populations as a proportion of the total uk population

Probabilistic projection 2001-2100: Mixed populations as a proportion of the total UK population


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK are possible but with difficulty.

  • Must be regarded as indicators of implications of assumptions, not prophesies.

  • Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is migration, not fertility or mortality.

  • Migration policy must not be ignored.

  • Substantial growth, and re-alignment of relative size, of some groups is very likely.

  • ‘Mixed’ groups gaining in importance – multiple origins will eventually make ethnic categories less meaningful.

  • Next steps must include migration scenarios.


Net migration by citizenship 1967 2005 thousands

Net migration by citizenship 1967 – 2005 (thousands)


D a coleman and sylvie dubuc with the assistance of m d smith

Logistic curve fitted to UK Chinese TFR data 1965 – 2006.Asymptotic TFR 1.285; 95% confidence intervals 1.084 and 1.487


Projections of south asian populations 2001 51 1000s

Projections of South Asian populations, 2001-51 (1000s).


Examples of calculation of asfrs from own child method

Examples of calculation of asfrs from ‘own-child’ method.


Comparisons of oxpop projection with gad 2004 based pp

Comparisons of OXPOP projection with GAD 2004-based PP.


Foreign born black african inflow 1986 2002 by sex and age upon arrival

Foreign-born Black-African inflow, 1986-2002 by sex and age upon arrival


Estimated ethnic composition of births in england and wales 1993 2002 n b scale

Estimated Ethnic Composition of Births in England and Wales, 1993-2002 (n.b. scale)


Probabilistic projection of the uk white population 2001 2100

Probabilistic projection of the UK white population 2001-2100


  • Login