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Presentation overview Paper prepared by: Karel Zeman

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Presentation overview Paper prepared by: Karel Zeman

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  1. The 39th Conference on Medium-Term Economic Assessment (CMTEA)„The Future of Europe in a World of Uncertainties”Iasi, Romania, 25 – 27 September, 2008organized byNational Commission for Economic Forecasting, Romania“Catching-up process and the real convergence of the Czech economy within the EU in a world of uncertainties” Presentation overviewPaper prepared by: Karel Zeman

  2. Presentation overview catching-up process and real convergence of the Czech economy within EU and worldeconomy by summarizing the basic features of: • economic growth and real convergence • nominal convergence • national Lisbon programme implementation • integration in enlarged EU and into the globalized world economy through trade • competitiveness position • risks and challenges for the catching-up process continuation.

  3. Table 1 Real convergence of GDP per capita and economic growth in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • In purchasing power standards (PPS) • Forecast • Reference year 2000 • Preliminary • 5-year average • Sources: • The EU economy: 2007 review, Statistical Annex, Long-term macroeconomic series, EC Brussels, Autumn 2007 • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008 • Macroeconomic Forecast Czech Republic, July 2008, Czech Ministry of Finance, Prague July 2008

  4. Table 2 Gross domestic product per capita in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states (percentage change on preceding year)a) • Volume • Forecast • According to MF CR figures • Sources: • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008 • Macroeconomic Forecast Czech Republic, July 2008, Czech Ministry of Finance, Prague July 2008

  5. Table 3 Real convergence of GDP per person employed and labour productivity growth in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • In purchasing power standards (PPS) • Forecast • Reference year 2000 • Preliminary • 5 year average • Sources: • The EU economy: 2007 review, Statistical Annex, Long-term macroeconomic series, EC Brussels, Autumn 2007 • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008 • Macroeconomic Forecast Czech Republic, July 2008, Czech Ministry of Finance, Prague July 2008

  6. Table 4 Real convergence of GDP per capita and per person employed of the Czech Republic to its levels in selected EU member states • In purchasing power standards (PPS) • Forecast • Sources: • The EU economy: 2007 review, Statistical Annex, Long-term macroeconomic series, EC Brussels, Autumn 2007 • Employment in Europe 2007, Statistical Annex, Key employment indicators, EC Brussels 2007 • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008

  7. Table 5a Selected nominal convergence indicators in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • Forecast • Reality • Preliminary • Sources: • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008 • Macroeconomic Forecast Czech Republic, July 2008, Czech Ministry of Finance, Prague July 2008

  8. Table 5b Selected nominal convergence indicators in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • Forecast • Reality • Preliminary • Sources: • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008 • Macroeconomic Forecast Czech Republic, July 2008, Czech Ministry of Finance, Prague July 2008

  9. Table 6 Comparative price and business investment levels in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • Comparative levels of final consumption by private households, including indirect taxes • Gross fixed capital formation by the private sector as a percentage of GDP (nominal) • Gross fixed capital formation total as percentage of GDP (nominal) • Source: • Strategic report on the renewed Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs: launching the new cycle (2008-2010), Keeping up • the pace of change, Part II, EC Brussels 2008 • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008

  10. Table 7a Comparison of key labour markets structural indicators in the Czech Republic with EU-27 average (in %) a) The ratio of civilian employment (national definition) to total population aged 15 to 64 years. Persons carrying out obligatory military services are not included b) The number of persons aged 55 to 64 years in employment dividing by the number of total population of the same age group c) Coefficient of variation of employment rates (of the age group 15-64) across regions (NUTS 2 level) within EU member states d) Long-term unemployed (12 month and more) as percentage of total active population Sources: Strategic report on the renewed Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs: launching the new cycle (2008-2010), Keeping up the pace of change, Part II, EC Brussels 2008 Structural indicators, Eurostat 2007, 2008 Employment in Europe 2007, Statistical Annex, Key employment indicators, EC Brussels 2007

  11. Table 7b Comparison of key labour markets structural indicators in the Czech Republic with EU-27average (in %) a) The ratio of civilian employment (national definition) to total population aged 15 to 64 years. Persons carrying out obligatory military services are not included b) The number of persons aged 55 to 64 years in employment dividing by the number of total population of the same age group c) Coefficient of variation of employment rates (of the age group 15-64) across regions (NUTS 2 level) within EU member states d) Long-term unemployed (12 month and more) as percentage of total active population Sources: Strategic report on the renewed Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs: launching the new cycle (2008-2010), Keeping up the pace of change, Part II, EC Brussels 2008 Structural indicators, Eurostat 2007, 2008 Employment in Europe 2007, Statistical Annex, Key employment indicators, EC Brussels 2007

  12. Table 8 Comparison of key labour market structural indicators in the Czech Republic and in selected EU member states (in %) • The ratio of civilian employment (national definition) to total population aged 15 to 64 years. Persons carrying out obligatory military services are not included • The number of persons aged 55 to 64 years in employment dividing by the number of total population of the same age group • Coefficient of variation of employment rates (of the age group 15-64) across regions (NUTS 2 level) within EU member states • As a percentage of civilian labour force • Long-term unemployed (12 month and more) as percentage of total active population • Sources: • Strategic report on the renewed Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs: launching the new cycle (2008-2010), Keeping up the pace of change, Part II, EC Brussels 2008 • Structural indicators, Eurostat 2007, 2008 • Employment in Europe 2007, Statistical Annex, Key employment indicators, EC Brussels 2007

  13. Table 9 Comparison of key human capital development indicators in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • Percentage of the population aged 20-24 having completed at least upper-secondary education • Preliminary • Percentage of adult population (25-64 year olds) with terciary education • Estimates • 2003 • Source: • Strategic report on the renewed Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs: launching the new cycle (2008-2010), Keeping up the pace of change, • Part II, EC Brussels 2008

  14. Table 10 Comparison of the social cohesion indicators in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • Income quintile share ratio: the ratio of total income (equalized disposable income) received by 20 % of the population with the highest income (top quantile) to that received by the 20 % of the population with the lowest income (lowest quantile) • The share of persons with an equivalized disposable income (after social transfers) below the risk of powerty threshold, which is set at 60 % of the national median equalized disponsable income • 2003 • 2002 • Source: • Structural indicators, Eurostat 2007, 2008

  15. Table 11 Energy intensity of the economy in the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • Gross inland consumption of energy divided by GDP (at constant prices 1995=100), measured in kilogram of oil equivalent per 1,000 EURO • Source: • Strategic report on the renewed Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs: launching the new cycle (2008-2010), Keeping up the pace of change, Part II, EC Brussels 2008

  16. Table 12 Market integration of the Czech and selected EU member states economies • Average value of imports and exports of the item goods of the balance of payments divided by GDP, multiplied by 100 • Average value of imports and exports of services divided by GDP, multiplied by 100 • Average value of inward and outward FDI flows divided by GDP, multiplied by 100; data are expressed as percentage of • GDP to remove the effect of differences the size of the economies of the reporting EU member states • d)2004 • e)2001 • Source: • Structural indicators, Eurostat 2007, 2008

  17. Table 13 Evolution of market shares of the Czech Republic and selected EU member states (in %) • 12 new member states • Source: • Trade and catching-up in the EU (Note for the attention of the Economic Policy Committee), EC Brussels, October 2007

  18. Table 14 Export performancea) of the Czech Republic and selected EU member states • Index for exports of goods divided by an index for growth of markets; percentage change on proceeding year • Forecast • Source: • Economic Forecast, Spring 2008, European Economy 1/2008, EC Brussels 2008

  19. Table 15 Net export of goods of the Czech Republic and selected EU member states(in % of GDP)a) a) Nominal Source: Trade and catching-up in the EU (Note for the attention of the Economic Policy Committee), EC Brussels, October 2007

  20. Table 16 The Czech Republic and selected EU member states position among 55 economies according to competitiveness factorsa) • The competitive position of compared states among 55 economies are ranked according to 331 criteria (80 criteria for economic performance, 73 criteria for government efficiency, 70 criteria for business efficiency, 108 criteria for infrastructure) from the most (1) to the least (55) competitive • Source: • IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2008, IMD Lausanne 2008

  21. Thank you

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