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The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission

The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission. Managing growth in Montgomery County. Adequacy of transportation facilities Economic vitality. September 13, 2003. The Transportation Tests. Policy Area Transportation Review. Area average roadway congestion cannot exceed standard.

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The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission

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  1. The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission Managing growth in Montgomery County Adequacy of transportation facilities Economic vitality September 13, 2003

  2. The Transportation Tests • Policy Area Transportation Review. • Area average roadway congestion cannot exceed standard. • Local Area Transportation Review. • Tests congestion at nearby intersections. • For both PATR and LATR, congestion standard varies depending on transit availability & usage.

  3. Policy Area Transportation Review • Staging Ceilings: Calculation of the maximum number of jobs and housing units the transportation system can handle. • Rural: no staging ceilings because growth limited by zoning. • Staging ceilings in one policy area cannot result in excessive congestion in another policy area • APF finding: 5-12 years. Policy Areas

  4. How much new development can be approved? STAGING CEILING Capacity of Programmed Facilities Net Remaining Capacity Policy Areas Approved Development Capacity of Existing Facilities Existing Development Transportation Development

  5. What is TTLOS? • Component of PATR: “Total Transportation Level of Service” • Formula for determining how much auto congestion should be permitted in each policy area. • Inputs are “transit mode share” and “transit accessibility.” • Problems with concept surfaced during 2001 update; a major reason for AGP review.

  6. Development permitted under current ceilings Jobs Housing Already Approved 77,292 25,987 Capacity New Approvals 32,052 31,568 Approvals (2002) 10,539 5,169 Completions (2002): 7,294 3,456 This chart does not include development activity in Rockville or Gaithersburg

  7. Policy areas in moratorium FY03 Housing Jobs In Moratorium Not in Moratorium Municipalities

  8. Approving development in transportation moratorium areas • Small Scale Development • Affordable Housing • Staging Ceiling Flexibility • Developer Participation • Development Districts • Metro Station Areas • Economic Development Projects

  9. Local Area Transportation Review • Objective: make sure development does not overwhelm nearby intersections. • Applied to all projects generating 50 or more peak hour trips. • If intersection fails the standard, developer can make improvements, mitigate trips, or – in limited cases – make a payment to the County.

  10. Traffic congestion has gotten worse Percent change, 1985-2000 Jobs Pop VMT Roads

  11. Comparing traffic congestion measures Urbanized Congestion 2000 Transit Mode Share 2000 Montgomery Co. Fairfax Co. Montgomery Co. Fairfax Co. DC Region Square Kilometers of Development 1973-85 1985-90 1990-96 Montgomery County 3.5 4.6 2.6 Fairfax County 5.7 10.0 4.5

  12. Roadway congestion Severely congested Congested Approaching congested

  13. Cost of future infrastructure • 2030 Forecast: 146,000 jobs and 78,000 housing units (31,200 students). • Transportation: $5.9 billion • About $26,000 per forecast job and housing unit

  14. Transportation test concerns • Using the right measures? • Staging ceilings are based on “average congestion.” • AGP looks only at “peak periods.” • Complex: Reliance on a complicated transportation model. • Good: technical and objective. • Bad: only an expert can challenge findings.

  15. Transportation test goals • More transparent and understandable • Fewer subareas • Strengthen connection to capital programming • Retain LATR

  16. Economic vitality

  17. Economic vitality context • The foundations of Montgomery County’s economy are very strong. • Direct federal government activity • Attracts and supports highly educated workforce • Attracts and supports tech-oriented private sector • Many counties would envy Montgomery County’s job growth, labor force, and unemployment rate.

  18. County economy: 2003 • Local economy exhibits strengths in face of national downturn • Job growth: flat overall, tech sectors among hardest hit • Federal impact: procurement, leasing & employment outlook still strong • Office space market: short, mild recession appears to be ending

  19. Annual job growth: 2,159 jobs Second quarter figures (change from previous year) Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data Between the second quarters of 2001 and 2002, Montgomery County added 2,159 jobs, growing 0.5 percent.

  20. Job growth: tech jobs drop to 1997 levels Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2002Q2) Index: 1988Q1=100 Montgomery Co. Maryland United States There are 71,400 high tech jobs in Montgomery County.

  21. Jobless rate is 2.6% June 1992: 3.9% Jan 1988: 2.6% July 2003: 2.6% Source: MD DLLR There are 13,630 unemployed persons in Montgomery County.

  22. Federal jobs expected to exceed 1994 levels by 2005 Workers By 2015, jobs at installations are expected to grow by 38 percent above current levels. Jobs in leased space are expected to fluctuate between 22,300 and 25,500. Source: M-NCPPC analysis of US government data

  23. Federal leasing reaches 6.7 million s.f. Square feet Since 1994, GSA has leased between 6.0 and 6.7 million square feet of commercial space in Montgomery County Source: General Services Administration (GSA)

  24. Federal procurement reaches record levels: $4.7 billion $ billions The regional leaders in federal procurement are Washington DC and Fairfax County, VA, both with more than double Montgomery County’s amount. Source: General Services Administration (GSA)

  25. Office market: long term trends show construction cycles Millions of square feet

  26. Office market: Class A vacancy rates have started to decline Office vacancy rates C A All B

  27. Montgomery fared better than Fairfax and region In March 2003: percent better or worse than March 2002 Vacant space Occupied space Montgomery County’s office market fared better than the rest of region during the recent recession, as we had less vacant space and we had positive net absorption of new space.

  28. Office market recovery negative indicators • Leasing of new buildings may leave sublet space vacant. • U.S. economy is in the doldrums, undermining confidence. • There are still 800,000 sq. ft. under construction.

  29. Summary • Transportation tests: Have moderated the pace of growth and have required road improvements to be built. But the current methods may be more complicated than necessary. • Congestion: Roads are congested and the cost of new facilities is high. • Economic vitality: County’s economic foundations and prospects are strong. Office market is healthier than region as a whole, but has space for companies to expand.

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