An overview of the european leasing market in 2009
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An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009. Jurgita Bucyte Adviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs ALB National Conference, Bucharest 18 November 2010. Agenda. About Leaseurope Global Leasing Markets in 2009 Evolution of the European Leasing Market

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An overview of the european leasing market in 2009

An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009

Jurgita Bucyte

Adviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs

ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010


Agenda

Agenda

  • About Leaseurope

  • Global Leasing Markets in 2009

  • Evolution of the European Leasing Market

  • European Leasing Market in 2009:

    - Asset Breakdowns

    - Regional Performance

    - Client Sectors

  • European Leasing Penetration

  • The European Leasing Market in H1 2010


About leaseurope

About Leaseurope

  • The voice ofleasing and automotive rentalin Europe

  • It brings together 45 Member Associations

  • In turn representing more than 1 300 finance leasing firms & more than 780 short term rental companies

  • Leaseurope represents~93%of the European leasing market

Leaseuropemembers


An overview of the european leasing market in 2009

Global Leasing Markets in 2009

Canada

CFLA

20 bil€

Japan

JLA

38 bil€

-32%

-20%

Leaseurope

209 bil€

US

ELFA

124 bil€

-19%

China

CLBA

29 bil€

-10%

Brazil

ABEL

11 bil€

0%

Australia

AELA & AFLA

10 bil€

New equipment leasing volumes (Leaseurope volumes include real estate)

ELFA figures do not include passenger car leasing

AELA figures are for FY 2009

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey, local leasing associations, Leaseurope estimates


Global leasing markets in 2009 europe

Global Leasing Markets in 2009: Europe

Results from Leaseurope’s 2009 Annual Enquiry

NEW VOLUMES

Movables

Total

Real Estate

209 €bil

Leaseurope Annual Survey

25 €bil

185 €bil

Estimated TOTAL Market

231 €bil

OUTSTANDINGS

Movables

Total

Real Estate

Leaseurope Annual Survey

686 €bil

211€bil

475 €bil

Estimated TOTAL Market

725 €bil

Source: Leaseurope estimates, Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey of European Leasing

29 member associations in 24 countries reporting, figures include hire purchase products when reported by member associations


Evolution of the european leasing market

30.0%

25%

16.5%

15.3%

14.8%

15%

12.4%

5%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-5%

-0.7%

-8.7%

-15%

-25%

-35%

Total New Volumes

Real Estate

Evolution of the European Leasing Market

Evolution of the European leasing market

New business, annual % change (1995 – 2009)

New volumes % 2008/9

-31.0%

- €100 bil

-32.3%

-32.5%

Movables

Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year

Growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations. When adjusted for exchange rates, total new leasing volumes decreased by 30.3% from ’08 to ’09.

Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys


Evolution of the european leasing market1

Evolution of the European Leasing Market

Evolution of the European leasing market

New business, annual % change

CAGR

(1995-2009)

25%

15%

3.8%

5%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-5%

5.4%

-15%

5.8%

-25%

-35%

Total New Volumes

Real Estate

Movables

CAGR calculated for the 18 associations reporting from ’95-’09

Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year

Growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys


Evolution of the european leasing market2

Evolution of the European Leasing Market

Evolution of new business by country

New vol, annual % change (2009/2008)

-15 to - 25%

-25 to - 35%

-35 to - 50%

- 50% and lower

NA

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual SurveyGrowth rates are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsNote: AT domestic leasing business decreased by 23%


The european leasing market in 2009

The European Leasing Market in 2009

Leased assets

Total new volumes per asset category, %

2008

2009

6%

7%

Real estate

35%

38%

11%

10%

Machines & equip

CVs

12%

Cars

11%

ICT

Big/other

18%

16%

18%

19%

54%

Automotive

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey

Figures shown in pie charts may not add to 100% due to rounding


An overview of the european leasing market in 2009

Cars financed/purchased

ST rental

Total

Leasing

units

704 400

5 500 900

4 796 500

of which:

76%

new cars

business use

61%

77

€ (bil)

10

87

Portfolio/fleet

Leasing

ST rental

Total

units

13 665 000

546 500

14 211 500

The European Leasing Market in 2009

Leaseurope’s weight in the car sector (2009)

Based on figures reported in the 2009 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations


The european leasing market in 20091

The European Leasing Market in 2009

European leasing volumes per asset category

Annual % change (2009/2008)

ICT

CVs

Cars

Big/other

Machinery

5%

Real Estate

Movables

0%

5%

Total

-5%

0%

5%

-10%

-5%

0%

-15%

-10%

-5%

-20%

-10%

-15%

-18.7%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-26.7%

-30%

-20%

-25%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-31.0%

-40%

-36.8%

-35%

-32.5%

-38.5%

-41.1%

-35%

-32.3%

Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

Source: 2009 Leaseurope Annual Survey


The european leasing market in 20092

The European Leasing Market in 2009

Regional performance by movable asset category

New business growth - annual % change (2009/2008)

BE,NLAT,CH

CEE

MED.

UK

IT

Nordic

DE

FR

0%

-10%

-20%

-22%

-25%

-20%

-30%

-27%

-28%

-26%

-26%

-30%

-30%

-32%

-32%

-40%

-40%

-50%

-49%

-52%

-60%

-56%

-58%

Machines & Equip

ICT

Big/Other

Vehicles

Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted

for exchange rate fluctuations

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey


The european leasing market in 20093

The European Leasing Market in 2009

Regional performance – automotive sector

New business growth - annual % change (2009/2008)

BE,NLAT,CH

Nordic

CEE

MED.

IT

UK

DE

FR

0%

-10%

-16%

-20%

-19%

-23%

-25%

-25%

-26%

-30%

-28%

-31%

-38%

-37%

-40%

-37%

-38%

-39%

-45%

-50%

-56%

-60%

Passenger Cars

-62%

Commercial Vehicles

Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted

for exchange rate fluctuations

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey


The european leasing market in 20094

The European Leasing Market in 2009

Leasing clients

New movables leasing volumes by sector & cluster

(2009)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

BE,NLAT,CH

CEE

DE

UK

FR

IT

MED.

Nordic

Businesses

Consumers

Public

Other

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey


European leasing penetration

European Leasing Penetration

Evolution of leasing penetration in Europe

20 countries (1999-2009)

22%

18%

16%

12%

7%

3%

Movables

Total Volumes

Real Estate

Lease penetration is the share of total investment (excluding residential real estate) financed by leasing Calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation for the 20 associations reporting from ’99-’09

Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat (GFCF)


European leasing penetration1

European Leasing Penetration

Why is lease penetration falling ?

Leasing vs investment growth (excl real estate)

Annual % change

15%

10%

5%

0%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

Leasing (excl RE)

Investment (excl RE)

Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat, Commission Spring Forecast, Global Insight


European investment

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-5%

-10%

-15%

European Investment

Why is lease penetration falling ?

Total vs public investment (2001-2015, Western Europe)

Annual % change

Total Investment

Public Investment

Growth rates are calculated based on EU-15 (excl LU) including NO and CH

Source: HIS Global Insight


European lease penetration

European Lease Penetration

Share of total investment financed by leasing

2008

> 25 %

15.5%

20% to 25%

15% to 20%

10% to 15%

< 10 %

NA

Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate)

Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat


European lease penetration1

European Lease Penetration

Share of total investment financed by leasing

2009

> 25 %

12.2%

20% to 25%

15% to 20%

10% to 15%

< 10 %

NA

Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate)

Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat


An overview of the european leasing market in 2009

The European Leasing Market in H1 2010

H1 2010/09 %

+0.3%

H1 2010

New volumes*

94 bil€

over 10 %

0 to 10%

-10 to 0%

-25 to - 10%

CEE cluster: -8.3%

-25% and lower

NA

Source: Leaseurope Member Associations

*24 member associations reporting; growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations


Concluding remarks

Concluding Remarks

Total new volumes (% YoY)

60%

40%

20%

0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

CEE:

What’s next?

-20%

-40%

-56%

-60%

Investment – annual change (% YoY)

30%

20%

10%

0%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-10%

-20%

Europe

CEE

-30%

Source: IHS Global Insight


An overview of the european leasing market in 20091

An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009

Jurgita Bucyte

Adviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs

ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010


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