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Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach. Briefing for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board March 19, 2002 National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Jim Laver, Director 301-763-8000 x7500, [email protected] http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/. Climate Prediction Center Overview.

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Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach

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Climate Prediction:Products, Research, Outreach

Briefing for

NOAA’s Science Advisory Board

March 19, 2002

National Weather Service

Climate Prediction Center

Jim Laver, Director

301-763-8000 x7500, [email protected]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


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Climate Prediction CenterOverview

  • Product Suite

    • Outlooks: Week 2 through Seasons

    • Monitoring: Global, Regional

    • Assessments: Threats, Diagnostics Bulletin, Annual, …

  • Product Development and Improvement --

    Research Areas Needed

  • Outreach -- Products released via AWIPS,

    Weather Wire, Web, Media, Global Channels,

    Special Briefings to Government Agencies


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Climate Monitoring

  • Global Climate Conditions

    • ElNiño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle

    • Temperature and Precipitation

    • Atmospheric winds and pressure

    • Oceanic Temperatures and Currents

    • Stratospheric Temperatures and Ozone

  • Regional Climate Conditions

    • U.S. Precipitation (Drought, Soil Moisture)

    • U.S. Temperature


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Climate Assessments

  • Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly)

  • ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

  • United States Assessments

    • Weather/Climate Hazards

    • Drought

    • Degree Days

    • Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Activity

  • Stratosphere

  • Annual global climate


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Product Research, Development,and Improvement Partners

  • Within NOAA

    - National Climatic Data Center - Climate Diagnostics Center

    - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - National Ocean Service

    - Tropical Prediction Center - Environmental Modeling Center

    - NWS Regional Headquarters - NWS Forecast Offices (WFO)

  • Outside NOAA

    - International Research Institute for - Applied Research Centers

    Climate Prediction - US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)

    - Scripps Institution of Oceanography- Center of Ocean Land and Atmosphere

    - Federal Emergency Management - University of Maryland

    - National Drought Mitigation Center- NASA

    - US Air Force- US Aid for International Development


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Connections to Research

  • Weather and Climate links

  • North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)


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Weather and Climate Links

  • El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO)

  • Arctic Oscillation (AO)

  • Trends

  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)


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ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO/NAO)

  • Major source of winter intraseasonal variability over U. S., Atlantic and Europe

  • Modulates the circulation pattern over the middle and high latitudes

  • Regulates number and intensity of significant weather events affecting the U.S.


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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

HYPOTHESIS

The NAMS provides a physical

basis for determining the degree of

predictability of warm season

precipitation over the region.

Topographic and Sea-Land Influence

  • OBJECTIVES:

  • Better understanding and

  • simulation of:

  • monsoon evolution and

  • variability.

  • response of warm season

  • circulation and precipitation

  • to slowly varying boundary

  • conditions (e.g. SST, soil

  • moisture).

  • diurnal heating cycle and

  • its relation to seasonally

  • varying mean climate.

  • Intraseasonal variability of

  • the monsoon.

Intraseasonal Variability

Boundary Forcing?

YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Planning--------------|

Preparations --------------|

Data Collection - - - - - - ------------|

Principal Research ---------------------------|

Data Management -------------------------------------|


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Outreach

  • National --AWIPS, NOAA Weather Wire, Web, Media, Special Briefing to Agencies

  • State & Local -- 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) brief media , emergency managers and elected officials

  • American Red Cross, FEMA, DoS/USAID, USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, African Desk, other International Centers


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Summary

  • CPC produces outlooks on time scales from week 2 through seasons

  • Monitoring and assessment efforts support forecast operations

  • Product R & D and improvement needed with research partners on all time scales

  • Outreach -- with partners through NOAA and International Systems, Web, Media, and Special Briefings to Agencies


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