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Forgotten Oil & Gas Study

Forgotten Oil & Gas Study. 2013 User Conference Hosted by Maersk – Houston November 14, 2013. John D. Grace Earth Science Associates Long Beach, CA. Goals. High-grade opportunities for new production from “dead” reservoirs Develop methods for mass-batch decline curve analysis

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Forgotten Oil & Gas Study

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  1. Forgotten Oil & Gas Study 2013 User Conference Hosted by Maersk – Houston November 14, 2013 John D. Grace Earth Science Associates Long Beach, CA

  2. Goals • High-grade opportunities for new production from “dead” reservoirs • Develop methods for mass-batch decline curve analysis • Identify “non-balancing” movements in field & sand reserve estimates • Demonstrate “data mining” approach to analysis using GOM3

  3. Decline Curve Study Last Production Date Production Production Rate Estimated Remaining Recoverable Volume Statistically Estimated Decline Rate Estimated Current Abandonment Rate Number of Months On

  4. Total Volumes & Uncertainty 12 9 6 3 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 Gas (Tcf) Oil (Million Bbls) Both oil and gas scaled in BOE

  5. Size/Frequency Reservoir Recoverable Volume 4 1,500 3 1,000 Freq. 2 Freq. (x 1,000) 500 1 0 0 0 10 20 M Bbls 3 MM Bbls 500 0 10 20 MMCF 95 BCF 3 BCF 500 Bbls MCF

  6. Largest Reservoirs Found 12 40 10 30 8 Reservoirs 20 6 4 10 2 0 0 6 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 1 2 3 4 5 Remaining Oil (Million Bbls) Remaining Gas (Bcf)

  7. Where Was 2012 Production?

  8. Where is the Forgotten Oil & Gas?

  9. Cost Proxies Dot Size Proportional to Remaining BOE

  10. Revenue Proxies - Oil

  11. Revenue Proxies - Gas

  12. Decline Methodology • Studied reservoirs “dead” at end 2009 • Applied GOM3 Decline Curve Tool in batch • Process data to find final “regime break” • Apply 4 standard engineering models • Corrected bias in exponential estimates • Retained confidence intervals for estimates • Picked best model with R2 (R2  0.6) • Determined “current” abandonment rate

  13. Break in Structural Regime Global Prod. Max Break in Regime Regime Estimated

  14. Standard Decline Models • Exponential rate v time: • Linear rate v cumulative prod: • Hyperbolic rate v time: • If exponential; harmonic; hyperbolic

  15. Models Tried: Picked Best Above Threshold This reservoir does not pass the R2>0.6 criteria

  16. Example: WC49 Field: L04 Sand L04 Sand 371 MMcf Remaining L-8 & L-4NM reservoirs (12,919-13,134) Very low & strange production A and PA-3 reservoirs (13,406-14,308). Comps produced 27 & 28 bcf respectively ? 6 Bcf Remaining

  17. Where’s the Potential in WC49?

  18. Plus: Dead but Not Declining

  19. Look Where Reserves Do Not Balance

  20. Found in Reserve Histories Fields Sands 6 BBL 5 BBL 4 BBL 3.6 BBL 17 TCF 32 TCF 18 TCF 34 TCF

  21. Next steps • Get input from these presentations • Complete analysis of Reserve Histories • Final revisions to numbers & software • Produce deliverables • Decide on marketing strategy

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