Simulating atmospheric co 2 for 2000 our quandary our hypotheses and a case study
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Simulating Atmospheric CO 2 for 2000: Our Quandary, Our Hypotheses and a Case Study. Using Analyzed Climate, Transport and Satellite Vegetation. Sheri L. Conner Gausepohl TRANSCOM Meeting 13 - 16 June 2005 Paris, France. Introduction. Research Goals

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Simulating Atmospheric CO 2 for 2000: Our Quandary, Our Hypotheses and a Case Study

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Simulating atmospheric co 2 for 2000 our quandary our hypotheses and a case study

Simulating Atmospheric CO2 for 2000: Our Quandary, Our Hypotheses and a Case Study

Using Analyzed Climate, Transport and Satellite Vegetation

Sheri L. Conner Gausepohl

TRANSCOM Meeting

13 - 16 June 2005

Paris, France


Introduction

Introduction

  • Research Goals

  • Team: NASA/Goddard, CSU, NOAA-CMDL

    Oak Ridge Lab

  • Models: SiB3 and PCTM

  • Experiment Overview

  • Our Quandary

  • Our Hypotheses

  • Case Study

  • Next Steps


Goals

Goals

  • Create a synthetic atmospheric [CO2 ] product with realistic diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variations with quantified error

    • Sub-sampling for various observing systems

    • Testing inverse methods

    • Creating lateral boundary [CO2] conditions for mesoscale models (SiB-RAMS)

    • Testing flux models and hypotheses of surface exchanges


Simulating atmospheric co 2 for 2000 our quandary our hypotheses and a case study

NASA/Goddard

Randy Kawa

Steven Pawson

Jim Collatz

Zhengxin Zhu

CSU

A. Scott Denning

Kevin Gurney

Ian Baker

John Kleist

Ravi Lokupitiya

Andrew Philpott

Lara Prihodko

Owen Leonard

Erin Chorak

Sheri Conner Gausepohl

Team

  • NOAA - CMDL

    • Arlyn Andrews

    • Kevin Schaefer

  • Oak Ridge Lab

    • David Erickson III

With many thanks to CMDL and Joe Berry and Steve Montzka


Parameterized chemical transport model pctm

U

U

Parameterized Chemical Transport Model (PCTM)


Pctm previous results

PCTM – Previous Results

Thanks to Kevin Gurney and

Scott Denning

PCTM

TRANSCOM

Responses

CO2 Concentration (ppm)


Simple biosphere model sib3

Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3)

Thanks to Piers Sellers,

Ian Baker et al.


Experiment overview

Experiment Overview

GEOS – 4 DAS

Meteorology

(core Goddard GCM)

www.e-design.org.uk

Met Fields

1º x 1.25º x

3 hours

NDVI

SiB3

Biosphere

www.noaa.gov

www.nws.noaa.gov/rrs/overview.htm

www.noaa.gov

Met Fields

1º x 1.25º

x 55L x

3/6 hours

10 years

18 years

NCEP

IGBP Soils

NEE

1º x 1.25º x

1 hour

Takahashi Ocean 1997

PCTM

Transport

(core Goddard GCM)

3 years

DeFries Biome Types

Andres Fossil Fuel Emissions 1990

3 years

[CO2]

2º x 2.5º x 25L x 1 hour

faculty.law.lsu.edu/ccorcos/biblio/flask.gif

http://public.ornl.gov/ameriflux/

http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~cobra/


Quandary early drawdown

Quandary: Early Drawdown

Hypotheses

  • Autotrophic Respiration

  • Photosynthesis:

    Normalized Difference

    Vegetation Index (NDVI)

  • Radiation

    Case Study: COS

  • Use carbonyl sulfide (COS)

    to quantify error in

    photosynthesis

    Data: redModel: green


Hypothesis respiration

Hypothesis: Respiration

New Respiration Calculation:

Thanks to Kevin Schaefer

  • Heterotrophic Respiration

    • 50% of annual Net Assimilation (GPP - Respiration leaf maintenance)

    • Seasonality defined from Soil Temperature & Soil Moisture

  • Autotrophic Respiration

    • 50% of annual Net Assimilation

    • Seasonality defined by FPAR (canopy nitrogen)

Temperate North America

Old Scheme: redNew Scheme blue CASA: green T3L3: black


Brief note re sib3 casa

Brief Note re: SiB3, CASA

SiB3

  • FPAR estimated from mid-month linearly interpolated NDVI, BUT solar zenith angle dependent FPAR

  • Single respiring carbon pool generates respiration that varies with soil temperature, soil moisture

CASA

  • FPAR estimated from mid-month linearly interpolated NDVI , BUT nadir FPAR

  • Multiple respiring carbon pools generate respiration that varies with amount of material in labile pools, air temperature, soil moisture


Hypothesis ndvi

Hypothesis: NDVI

New NDVI Interpolation Schemes:

  • Assign maximum value composite NDVI values to:

    • day observed OR

    • first day, mid-point, last day of month based on curvature

      and linearly interpolate

  • Tropics are an issue due to cloud contamination

  • Thanks to Andrew Philpott and the Tucker Group (NASA - Goddard)

    Data: green Old Scheme: BlueNew Scheme: Red


    Hypothesis radiation

    Hypothesis: Radiation

    Improved Canopy Radiation Scheme:

    • Separate treatment of sunlit and shaded leaves

      • Photosynthesis

      • Stomatal conductance

      • Leaf temperature

      • Transpiration

    • Solar zenith angle dependence of canopy shading acts to delay onset of photosynthesis in new scheme


    Case study assessing photosynthesis vs respiration

    Case Study: Assessing Photosynthesis vs. Respiration

    COS: the Sulfur Analog of CO2

    • Primary source: oxidation of marine organic matter

    • Primary sink: terrestrial biosphere

    • Large seasonal variation strongly related to CO2

      • Sink process identical to CO2 in photosynthesizing plants

      • No source process akin to respiration from biosphere

    Thanks to CMDL for CO2 data and to Steve Montzka for COS data


    Case study assessing photosynthesis vs respiration1

    Case Study: Assessing Photosynthesis vs. Respiration

    COS: The Plan

    Free Troposphere

    • Estimate timescale of mixing between mixed layer and free troposphere from water vapor and CO2 gradients

    • Calculate COS drawdown using timescale and SiB3

    • Compare COS drawdown to observations of COS at WLEF

    Mixed Layer

    Canopy Air Space

    NOTE: SiB3 currently calculates all but one necessary resistance


    Next steps

    Next Steps

    • Diagnose why SiB3-PCTM has springtime bias using COS (carbonyl sulfide)

    • (Improve SiB3 per results of diagnosis)

    • Run SiB3 with new schemes

    • Run PCTM at 1.0º x 1.25º resolution with updated fossil fuel and ocean fluxes

    • Calculate errors on [CO2] using observations

    • Release hourly global [CO2] product to science community with quantified errors


    Thank you very much for your kind attention

    Thank you very much for your kind attention.


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