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Geopolitical issues. Part III. Population displacements and migration. Session 5. Introduction. Throughout history, men have always migrated for environmental reasons But that ’ s also a reason largely ignored by researchers and policy makers. Despite growing concerns
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Geopolitical issues Part III
Population displacements and migration Session 5
Introduction • Throughout history, men have always migrated for environmental reasons • But that’s also a reason largely ignored by researchers and policy makers. • Despite growing concerns • Linkage between environment and migration still controversial
The emergence of the concept • First mentioned in the 1970s • First UNEP report in 1985 • Growing interest in the mid-2000s: • Realisation of the impacts of climate change • Major natural disasters • Tsunami 2004 • Katrina 2005 • Pakistan earthquake 2005 > Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and other environmental degradation.
A complex relationship • Migration itself is a very complex process Involves a wide array of factors, individual decision • Environmental factors are linked with economic, social and political factors When is environmental pressure the primary factor? • Environmental disruption can be a cause and a consequence of migration Resource scarcity, ‘green’ conflicts,... • Migration can also help to reduce the presure on resources
1. Sea-level riseCoastal regions will be first and most affected A sea-level rise of 1cm puts 1 million people at risk of displacement Source: NASA
2. Droughts and land degradation • Impacts on migration difficult to forecast • Migration flows tend to decrease at the peak of droughts • That’s because households affect their resources to primary needs.
Characteristics of the migrants • Positive relationshipbetweenenvironmentaldegradation and migration. • Differentfactorsintermingle, but environmentalfactors are of growing importance. • Definitional issue • Thesefactorsincrease the constraints to migration • Rise in forced migration • Migration flows are ofteninternal, and happening on short distances • Affected countries bear all the burden of migration. • The mostvulnerable are oftenunable to migrate. • Migration isexpensive
Issue of the definition • Difficult • Mostly internal migration • Mingles with other factors • Controversial • Alarmists vs sceptics • A broad definition invites large numbers • Different agendas • Wide variety of terms (often misnomers) • Important • Policy-wise • Allows to forecast numbers
A disconnection from the realities of migration • Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate change. • Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to be considered as such. • Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable • Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure • In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy • We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and migration. • We expect that these displacements will be forced and international. • We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will depend upon the impacts of climate change. • Environmental determinism • Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security. • In many cases, it can actually improve human security.
Key facts about Tuvalu • Successfully marketed itself as a country at risk of being washed away by sea-level rise, sending out the first ‘climate change refugees’ • Archipelago of nine islands, five of them are coral atolls. • Around 9,500 inhabitants; 4,500 live on the main atoll, Funafuti. • 26 km2, one of the world’s highest population density (373, but 1,610 in Funafuti) • Highest point at 4 m above sea-level
Tuvalu’s economy • Only resources are stamps, « .tv » internet domain and fishing licences • Wholly artificial economy, entirely dependant upon international aid (trust fund, remittances, etc.) • Very few jobs and high unemployment rate
Climate change • Major concern amongst inhabitants, fear of a brutal tsunami or hurricane • Extreme vulnerability to sea-level rise
Effects of climate change difficult to assess • Lack of scientific data about sea-level rise, no measurements • People rely on anecdotal evidence, oral environmental history • King tides every year, in February-March
Other environmental issues • Overpopulation • Waste disposal • ‘Borrow pits’ • Lack of drinkable water • Soil salinity
Migration • Important internal migration, from outer islands to Funafuti • About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in Auckland • Forced or voluntary migration? Issue of timescale • The whole region is highly prone to migration, part of Polynesian lifestyle • New Zealand is the only possible destination: • Pacific Access Category • Seasonal labour scheme
Resettlement • Considered many times in Tuvalu’s history • In 1890s, suggested as a solution to overpopulation problem • Population of Funafuti relocated on an outer island by Americans during WWII • Purchase of the island of Kioa in 1951 • Repeated plea by the government, in relation to climate change • However, works by John Campbell (Waikato U.) show difficulties in community relocation
Expatriates in Auckland • About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in West Auckland • NZ Government supporting some aspects of cultural life • Some weight in national and local politics • ‘Pull’ factor of migration
Government’s dilemmas • Adapt or flee? Role of the state is crucial • The government is actually encouraging emigration - ‘We want to give people a choice before it is too late’ • But also needs to keep attracting international aid • Preparing resettlement would clash with population’s views
Do people move because of climate change? • Wide range of factors: • Family and social networks in New Zealand • Job opportunities, better wages • Only the wealthier can afford to migrate • ... And concerns about sea-level rise • Key factor: uncertainty about the future, that acts as a trigger.
Uncertainty and futurity • People do not migrate for themselves, but for their children - some of them born in New Zealand • Concerns about the future of Tuvalu seem more important than actual degradations of the environment • Issue of uncertainty and futurity • Migration as a risk-reduction strategy for the family
Basic facts • One of the worst disasters in US history: • About 2,000 fatalities • 75 % of homes in New Orleans destroyed • 1,200,000 people evacuated on the Gulf Coast • US$ 85 billion damage • Disaster mainly due to the levee breaches • One quarter of New Orleans population without car • Help didn’t arrive before Setember 3rd, four days after the disaster
Evacuation • Mandatory evacuation ordered by Mayor Nagin on August 28. • Overall quite successful: 85 % evacuated • About 60,000 were stranded in the city • Because they had no car • Because they were ill, old, or disabled • Because they had pets • Because they didn’t know where to go • Because they were unwilling to leave
Evacuation patterns • Extremely diversified • Some people traveled very far away, others stayed relatively close. • Some traveled on their own, others were evacuated. • Some stayed with friends/relatives, others stayed in hotels/rented properties • Some could choose where they were going, others not • And some did not move at all. > The perception of the evacuation was also very diverse.
Three conclusions > Despite the collective dimension of the tragedy, the evacuation process was an individual process. > Forced or voluntary migration? People’s perceptions are very different. > The most vulnerable were far less off
Most vulnerable were far less off • Many were stranded in the city. • Those evacuated had no choice of their destination • This affected their ability to cope while away • Tend to blame Government and FEMA more severely. • Issue of adaptability > Katrina was also, and maybe most of all, a social disaster.
Return • Also very diverse patterns: some returned quickly, others after some time, others not at all. • Only about half of the population has returned to the city: • 37 % live in Louisiana • 34 % live in Texas (mostly Houston) • 9 % live in Georgia (mostly Atlanta) • 20 % live in another state • Only 11 % plan to return • 52 % are certain they will not return • Migration rather than displacement
Evacuation zones (22 Apr – 30 Sep 2011) (30 Sep 2011 - present) Deliberate Evacuation Area Deliberate Evacuation Area Specific Spots Recommended for Evacuation Restricted Area Restricted Area Specific Spots Recommended for Evacuation Evacuation-Prepared Area
Policy responses: Different directions • Environmental policies • Rapid evolution since the 1990s • People displaced by natural disasters and/or climate change increasingly taken into account • New actors and structures: IASC, CCEMA, rise of adaptation in climate talks • New instruments: • Hyogo Framework • Operational Guidelines on Human Rights and Natural Disasters • Adaptation Funds > Climate negotiations often considered as the central policy forum with regard to environmental migration
Migration and asylum policies • Have not really taken into account environmental factors so far • Very little progress in the governance of migration, no new instruments • Exception: temporary protection status • Two points to consider: • Traditional theories of migration are environmentally-blind • Migration scholars have a lesser impact on policy design than environmental scholars
Legal matters • People displaced by climate change are not refugees, according to the 1951 Geneva Convention: • No political persecution • But isn’t climate change a violent, political persecution to the most vulnerable? • Not always a border crossing • The displaced people flee their livelihood, not always their country • Forced migration? • Climate change adds a new dimension to the traditional distinction between forced and voluntary migration.
Two key policy issues • Enabling the right to leave • Enabling the right to choose • This will require different policy shifts: • Going beyond humanitarian aid • Not discriminating between displacements associated with climate change and those that are not. • Not restricting oneself to refugee law (Hyogo Framework, etc.) • Not focusing only on those who leave, but also one those who stay, sometimes forcibly.
Enabling the right to leave A challenge of migration policy • The right to leave is the key condition of asylum, originating after the Peace of Westphalia. • This right is currently jeopardised by environmental change. • The most vulnerable often find themselves unable to leave • Because they don’t have the resources to do so • Because of barriers to migration • Their life, health and livelihood are directly exposed to danger • Migration as a risk-reduction strategy • Issue of pro-active population displacements
Enabling the right to chooseA challenge of adaptation policy • Many of the migrants are forced migrants, and many of the stayers are forced stayers. • Adaptation • In the origin region, adaptation will reduce the environmental constraints to migration. • Migration itself can be an adaptation strategy. • Adaptation will also be needed in the destination regions. • Adaptation and disaster-risk reduction • Burden-sharing and internationalisation of the costs. • No discrimination between climate change and other disasters.
