Case study understanding climatology to m ake assumptions
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Case Study: Understanding Climatology to M ake Assumptions. 2014 FEWS NET Regional Training Meetings. Basic steps to developing agroclimatology assumptions. 1. Understand the climatology for the area of concern. 2. Evaluate current climate modes. 3. Interpret available forecasts.

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Case Study: Understanding Climatology to M ake Assumptions

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Case study understanding climatology to m ake assumptions

Case Study: Understanding Climatology to Make Assumptions

2014 FEWS NET Regional Training Meetings


Case study understanding climatology to m ake assumptions

Basic steps to developing agroclimatologyassumptions

1. Understand the climatology for the area of concern

2. Evaluate current climate modes

3. Interpret available forecasts

4. Incorporate monitoring data from remote sensing and other sources


Case study understanding climatology to m ake assumptions

Developing agroclimatology assumptions

1. Understand the climatology for the area of concern (well in advance of SOS and as necessary)

2. Evaluate current climate modes (~3 months before SOS and until EOS)

3. Interpret available forecasts (~2 months before SOS and through EOS)

4. Incorporate monitoring data from remote sensing and other sources (SOS through EOS)

Develop assumptions about the status of the season onset, early season progress, and seasonal outlook.


Goals

Goals

  • Understand the use of Climatology in creation of assumptions

  • Climatology and development of crops

  • Crop calendar and rainfall patterns


Key messages

Key Messages

  • Rainfall patterns are directly related with crops activities

  • Elevation and temperature define the “time” of the crops in the field

  • Any climate change affect the normal crop calendar


Case study agriculture in guatemala

Case Study: Agriculture in Guatemala

Escuintla

Totonicapan

  • 2000 mm on average during the season (April – Nov).

  • Mid summer drought ~10 days (Jul – Aug)

  • 1000 mm on average during the season (April – Nov).

  • Mid summer drought ~10 days (Jul – Aug)


Case study average rainfall

Case Study: Average Rainfall

Escuintla: Max year 3000, min year 1500 mm in the last 30 years.

Totonicapan: Max year 1400, min year of 740 mm in the last 30 years.


Case study average rainfall1

Case Study: Average Rainfall

Escuintla: Max year 3000, min year 1500 mm in the last 30 years.

Totonicapan: Max year 1400, min year of 740 mm in the last 30 years.


Case study agriculture in guatemala1

Case Study: Agriculture in Guatemala

1800- 2000 m

0 – 700 m

Lgpdek

Elevation and changes in length of growing period


Case study agriculture in guatemala2

Case Study: Agriculture in Guatemala

A decrease in rainfall during a critical part of the growing period could be detrimental to the plant

Water Depth ( mm)

PET

WR

AET

Senay 2003

SOS

EOS

LGP

WRSI = AET / WR


Case study understanding climatology to m ake assumptions

Crop Phenology Calendar

Escuintla

Totonicapan


Affectation of maize crops

Affectation of Maize Crops


Affectation of maize crops1

Affectation of Maize Crops

University of Illinois


Assumptions

Assumptions

  • An extension of the mid summer drought might affect the development of the crops in the high lands of Guatemala where there is a single growing season that last for 6 months., reducing the availability of food for the subsistence farmers.

  • A extended dry spell could affect the start of the Segunda season in Escuintla, due the dry conditions in the soils, and reducing the probability of a successful harvest due the rainfall patterns (normally the rainfall ends in October in the Pacific Basin)


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