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HUMAN FACTORS

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Overview NARAST Steering Committee Meeting Beijing, China November 2003 Kyle L. Olsen Federal Aviation Administration. Safer Skies. COMMERCIAL AVIATION. Controlled Flight. GENERAL AVIATION. Into Terrain. CABIN SAFETY. Aeronautical. Loss of Control.

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HUMAN FACTORS

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  1. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)OverviewNARAST Steering Committee MeetingBeijing, ChinaNovember 2003Kyle L. OlsenFederal Aviation Administration

  2. Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight GENERAL AVIATION Into Terrain CABIN SAFETY Aeronautical Loss of Control Decisionmaking Passenger Interference Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Carry-on Baggage Into Terrain Approach and Landing Child Restraint Survivability Weather Turbulence Runway Incursions HUMAN FACTORS IMPROVED DATA IN OPERATIONS & & ANALYSIS MAINTENANCE

  3. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF IATA AAPA ATAC APFA • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO • JAA • TCC • NATCA Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) *Representing GE and RR

  4. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST • Data analyses Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

  5. Integrated Strategic Safety Plan • Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed • 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements • 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies • 46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships - 22 complete/24 committed and underway • Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based enhancements with transition to design change enhancements long term • Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 (75% by 2020) • Foundation for U.S-supported continuous improvements in worldwide aviation safety

  6. Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 100% 10000 APPROVED PLAN Risk Reduction 9000 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 75% 7000 6000 Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 50% 5000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) 2007 2020 4000 3000 25% 2000 1000 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) CAST-050

  7. Safety Plan Benefits • Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry • Current accident cost per flight is approximately $76 cycle • Implementation of the 46 selected safety enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle Safety is morally required and is also good for business

  8. Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 80 Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60 73% Risk reduction 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

  9. Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% Risk Eliminated 90% Risk Remaining 80% 70% CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Database – Security events excluded 60% Portion of Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total CFIT Evac Midair LOC Flt Crew Inc LOC GND Sys-Comp Eng-UCEF Turbulence Fire/Explosion Runway Collision

  10. Questions

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