NPRS

1. NPRS December 7, 2011

2. Kudos • Improvements in extended range model systems • Have enabled field to do DSS in extended ranges • Offices are pushing the envelope • Hendrik’s effort with nearshore wave model a good example of working with the field • OCONUS – efforts with downscaled DNG, RTMA, Fukushima event greatly appreciated - AK support • SPC Web site produced by SPC for probabilities/experimental convective a great service

3. Wish List • Improved RTMA • 3-hour GFS resolution • Plans for Rapid Refresh to be sent to Alaska Region • HWRF for Western Pacific • More GFS BUFR soundings for Pacific Region

4. Discussion Items • SSDs and NCEP partner to address data distribution problem • Create the ability to send experimental data sets to field for evaluation • Produce model-based sensible weather fields for field use in GFE, i.e., what parameters should be derived at the WFO versus provided by NCEP? • Downscaling will be done by field • Ensembles – lack of spread for significant events • Too often spread not indicative of uncertainty • Too often what verifies is outside of all envelop of all ensemble solutions • NCEP production cycle • Opportunity – eliminate 06 & 18z GFS for better ensemble • What could we do instead • Future direction • Next Generation Forecast program (0-14 days) for DSS • Forecast over the loop – where human monitor process • Hourly 1km models to global • Tools provided on what is a big impact – anomalies • Where does warn-on-forecast fit into NCEP plans? • HRRR/FIM • Centers help with “science” of using models – SPC experience