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Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission usarc@acsalaska

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Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission usarc@acsalaska

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  1. Dr. Lawson BrighamDeputy Director and Alaska office Director, US Arctic Research CommissionPhD. (Cambridge, 2000) M.S. (Rensselear Polytechnic Inst., 1979)Current Research • Arctic Climate Impact Assessment • Future Arctic Marine Transportation • Future of the Russian Arctic and Northern Sea route.

  2. Changing Marine Access in the Arctic OceanARCUS 16th Annual Meeting & Arctic Forum 2004Washington, D.C. 13-14 May 2004 Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission usarc@acsalaska.net

  3. Outline • Arctic Icebreaker Operations 1977-2003 • Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Observations • ACIA Sea Ice Projections 2000-2100 • Canadian Archipelago/Northwest Passage • Northern Sea Route • Summary

  4. Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole and Trans-Arctic Voyages1977-2003 • 44 transits to the North Pole (36 Russia, 3 Sweden, 2 Germany, 2 USA, 1 Canada) • 5 trans-Arctic voyages (1991, 1994, 1996)

  5. 8 May – 19 June1987

  6. 25 May 1987

  7. July – August 1994

  8. AOS 94

  9. AOS 94

  10. Polar Sea real-time satellite imagery AOS 94

  11. 23 August 1994 near the North Pole Historic Rendezvous: Polar Sea,Louis S. St-Laurent, & Yamal

  12. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council • - Evaluate: climate variability, climate change,   and increased UV and their consequences- Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models • (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios- Project future Arctic changes for:   2020, 2050, and 2080- Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries- Scientific report & synthesis released late 2004

  13. “The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change”(from ACIA) • Increases in winter surface air temperatures • Increases in precipitation • Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground • Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness • Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems • Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion • Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean • Warming of Arctic oceanic waters • Record low levels of stratospheric ozone • Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation

  14. Observational data show a decrease of coverage Sea Ice • Decrease is • largest in • summer • Decrease is • largest since • late 1980s Sea Ice Extent (km2)

  15. 16 September 2002

  16. 16 September 2003

  17. 16 September 2002 16 September 2003

  18. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Climate model projections of sea ice extent: 2000 - 2100 March September MAR SEPT

  19. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

  20. Challenges of the Canadian Archipelago and the Northwest Passage • GCM resolution constraints • High inter-annual variability of sea ice coverage

  21. Regional Eastern Arctic l km2 Canadian Ice Service (2004)

  22. Regional Western Arctic (km2) Canadian Ice Service (2004)

  23. The Northern Sea Route INSROP (1999) Ob’ and Yenisey Rivers

  24. INSROP (1999)

  25. ACIA Regional NSR Sea Ice Projections

  26. Northern Sea Route: Navigability Projected for 2000 – 2100 (50% ice cover) Year

  27. Summary Points • -  Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real.-  Icebreakers have operated in the Central Arctic Ocean during summer • since 1977. • - Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic • Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century.- Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing • length of the navigation season.- Possibility for regular marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic • Ocean in summer by 2050.- Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging; • testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic • regional models.- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic • climate  trends & consequences.

  28. Relevant Upcoming Events • CITF Experts Meeting, Cambridge (September 2004) • Arctic Maritime Security Workshop, D.C. (October 2004) • ACIA Symposium, Reykjavik (9-12 November 2004) • International Conference –Arctic Marine Transportation, Anchorage (Spring/Summer 2005)

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