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San Diego Venture Group “Introducing the Always On generation”. Anthony B. Perkins Chairman & Editor-in-Chief June 26th, 2002. 10000.00. 8000.00. 6000.00. 4000.00. 2000.00. 0.00. What did we learn from the Internet Bubble?. 12000.00. $150 billion market cap. Yahoo. Nasdaq.

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San Diego Venture Group “Introducing the Always On generation”

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San diego venture group introducing the always on generation l.jpg

San Diego Venture Group“Introducing the Always On generation”

Anthony B. Perkins

Chairman & Editor-in-Chief

June 26th, 2002


What did we learn from the internet bubble l.jpg

10000.00

8000.00

6000.00

4000.00

2000.00

0.00

What did we learn from the Internet Bubble?

12000.00

$150 billion market cap

Yahoo

Nasdaq


Slide3 l.jpg

“90% of the entrepreneurial, economic and investment opportunities associated with the Internet and the web are still ahead of us.”

- Red Herring’s Prediction


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Introducing the Always On generation*

  • 74% of teens use IM several times a week, and claim that it plays a “major role” in their lives

  • While they still prefer the phone, 20% say that they use IM to contact their friends

  • 17% used IM to break-up with someone

  • 30% have developed new friends using IM

  • 94% use IM for homework, 41% get help from teachers by email, 17% use Internet to cheat

    * 12 to 17 year old kids in the United States


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The emerging PANs and HANs

2001

2005

Internet Surfers (global)500 million2 billion*

Cell phone users1 billion2 billion

Text messages sent (global)360 billion1.2 trillion

Broadband access (U.S.)8 million 20 million

Households with Internet TV

(global) 12 million200 million

Mobile services (global) $200 billion$800 billion

* One billion will come from new mobile users


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100 Pbps

10 Pbps

1 Pbps

100Tbps

10Tbps

1Tbps

100Gbps

10Gbps

1Gbps

100Mbps

ARPA & NSF Data to ‘96

10Mbps

1Mbps

100Kbps

10Kbps

1Kbps

100 bps

10 bps

10 bps

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

U.S. Internet Traffic Growth

Projected at 4x / year

4x / year

2.8x / year

U.S. Internet Traffic

Source: Dr. Roberts et al., 2001 (Caspian Net)


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The Geeks versus the Moguls

1 CD

MP3 Music

(55.0)

15 min

Streaming

Video

(32.1)

24 Digital

Photos

(18.0)

Large

PowerPoint

File

(8.0)

Large

web page

(0.1)


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Broadband: the currency of change

“Bandwidth power is growing at least three times faster than computing power.”

- George Gilder


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The Real-time Economy: Dell-ize or die

  • Over 90% of Cisco’s and Dell’s sales are facilitated over the Internet

  • Dell’s Austin manufacturing plant carries neither raw materials nor finished goods

  • Cisco has used e-learning to train and certify over 300,000 networking specialists

  • Dell’s return on investment is over 800%, and has a negative 24-day float

  • Cisco spends 6% on IT, almost twice the average


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B2B Explosion Still Ahead:“IT will provide over 2 times the productivity in the next 10 years than it did in the last 10 years.” — Bill Gates

2000

2005

B2B commerce (global) $131 billion$3-6 trillion

IM users at Work (U.S.) 13.4 million50 million

%/Sales spent on IT (U.S.)3.5%6%

IT as a % of GDP20%30%

Total $ of IT spending$100 billion$1.6 trillion


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U.S. Businesses and Waves of Applications

Wave 1

In the Past 3 Years

Wave 2

In the Next 3 Years

Wave 3

2004-2011

45%

of U.S. businesses currently working on Wave 1 applications …

10%

of U.S. businesses have moved on to Wave 2 applications …

3%

of U.S. businesses have completed more than 50% of Wave 1 and 2 applications …

  • eMarketing

  • Customer service and support

  • eCommerce

  • Finance

  • Human resources

  • Note: Prelminary data

  • Procurement/MRO

  • Sales force automation

  • Supply chain management


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Smart Networks = Productivity Boost

Productivity Growth

U.S. businesses’ adoption of network-enabled applications is the single most important factor on future productivity growth.

2.1%

Accounting for ….

40%

1.2%

1974

1995

2001

2011


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The Real-time Generation of Companies

  • Mobile Devices

    Apple

    Compaq

    Ericsson

    Handspring

    NTT/DoCoMo

    Noikia

    Palm

    Think Outside

    Real-Time Supply Chain Software

    SeeCommerce

    I2 Technologies

    Tillion

    PowerMarket

    Manugistics

  • Real-Time Alert Layer

    KnowNow

    Bang Networks

    Autonomy

  • Real-Time Synchronization Software

    Access360

    Oblix

    Savant Technology

    Acxiom

    Microsoft

    Novell

    Real-Time Business Layer

    Groove

    Zaplet

    Blaze Software

    KnowNow

  • Software Adapter Level

    Tibco Software

    Virtra Systems

    WebMethods

    Mercator Software


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Betting on the anti-trends

  • The best time to be an entrepreneur is when MBA applications are up

  • The best time to be VC is in the middle of a VC shakeout

  • Most costly investments in the web—consumer behavior conversion—have been made

  • The best time to start a company is during a recession: Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, H-P, and Disney

  • Leading company’s of new era go public after the bubble: Dell, Compaq and Microsoft


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The new networked world order

  • Innovation and entrepreneurial capitalism have gone international

  • The rising paradox between new communities and new isolation

  • Big brother becomes a reality

  • The rise of cyber gangs and network thievery

  • The emergence of the virtual nations and cults


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The authentic entrepreneur is our hero

  • Innovative (Andy Grove/Jobs)

  • Focused (Gates/Jobs)

  • Cheap (Michael Dell)

  • Competitive (McNealy, Ellison, Chambers)

  • Risk Takers (all of the above)


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“These overnight successes sure take a helluva long time.”

- Steve Jobs

CEO, Apple Computer


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Turning Off - Will it be possible?


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To Recap - Tony’s Top 10 Trends

1.      Cost of being a web entrepreneur is at all-time low.2.      The “Always On” Generation (12 to 19 year olds) will show us the way to new applications and services.3.      This year the number of non-PC devices hooked to the web will exceed PCs hooked to the web.4.      Consumers are increasingly downloading entertainment content over the web.

5.      B2B transaction over the web is still exploding.


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Tony’s Top 10 Trends Cont.

6.      Networked enabled applications are continuing to drive productivity curves.7.      All numbers associated with the web are still moving up and to the right - including the number of surfers, data traffic, and average bits sent per user.8.      Great entrepreneurs are still the folks to bet on: Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, John Chambers, Scott McNealy, Michael Dell and Larry Ellison.9.      The new networked world will increasingly present social and political challenges such as security and the rise of cyber-terrorism, creating new opportunities for entrepreneurs to solve.10.     Red Herring has become the media source of choice for those participating in the business of innovation.


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