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Difficulties Integrating Wind Generation Into Urban Energy Load Russell Bigley Shane Motley Keith Parks Currently in 2009: Xcel Energy is the #1 utility provider of wind in the nation ~2,876 MW’s of Wind Generation on Xcel Energy system Utility Overview Primary goal Keep the lights on

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difficulties integrating wind generation into urban energy load

Difficulties Integrating Wind Generation Into Urban Energy Load

Russell Bigley

Shane Motley

Keith Parks

currently in 2009 xcel energy is the 1 utility provider of wind in the nation
Currently in 2009: Xcel Energy is the #1 utility provider of wind in the nation

~2,876 MW’s

of Wind Generation on Xcel Energy system

utility overview
Utility Overview
  • Primary goal
    • Keep the lights on
  • Secondary goals
    • Run at peak efficiency
    • Prepare for plant maintenance and other outage issues such as transmission
utility overview load
Utility Overview-Load
  • Understanding Power Usage (load)
    • Power Load Forecasts
      • Highly dependent on weather conditions
        • Temperatures
        • Cloud Cover
        • Precipitation
utility overview load5
Utility Overview-Load
  • Load Forecast Error
    • Error comes from 2 sources
      • Model Error
      • Weather Forecast Error
  • Load forecast Error (MAE) is typically less than 3%-averaged over the 24 hour period (even day ahead)
generation forecasting
Generation Forecasting

Optimizing Power Plant Output for forecasted Load—Typically this involves scheduling

  • Coal Power Plants
  • Gas Power Plants
  • Hydro/Geothermal Facilities
  • Wind Plants--highly variable output
generation assets
Generation Assets
  • Many physical differences in power producing assets
    • Main concern: Assets that can be dispatched and assets that cannot be dispatched
    • Wind Generation is non-dispatchable
      • wind generation can be curtailed
    • Wind Generation is forecasted and scheduled
      • Thus there is risk associated with the generation
scheduling wind generation
Scheduling Wind Generation?
  • Many Issues with wind generation

1) Generation is dependent on wind

      • Generation is typically not static
    • Requires an excellent wind forecast
      • Even a great wind forecast doesn’t result in an accurate generation forecast
    • Accurate Power Curves for wind turbines
    • A better understanding of generation output on a large farm scale basis
      • Many estimates for total farm output are overestimated (Danish Wind Industry)
wind generation forecast error
Wind Generation Forecast Error
  • Wind Generation forecast Error average around 20% for the 24 hour day ahead period
  • Persistence is a good forecast in real time, but misses the ramps
      • How can the forecast be sooo bad!!!
why is generation so variable the forecast performance poor
Why is generation so variable & the forecast performance poor.
  • Wind speeds are variable
  • Terrain differences
  • Elevation and hub height difference
  • Turbine availability/turbine types
  • Turbine induced wake effects
  • Turbulent eddies induced by terrain
  • Wind speed variations with height
  • Turbine blades build up debris and affect the aerodynamics
  • Weather model resolution
  • Data Data Data
  • Communication with wind farm operators….and there’s more!!!!!
peetz logan wind farm
Peetz/Logan Wind Farm

Wind farm over 40 miles across and over 200 turbines

slide13

Turbines size:

HUGE!!

These are 2.3MW

Seimens turbines located near Adair, IA.

generation forecasting14
Generation Forecasting
  • Wind fields tend to be variable and output is even more variable
    • Small changes in wind speed tend to make large differences in power generation
    • Air Density differences also affect the power output (i.e. Summer vs. Winter)
    • Power Curves are not well documented and are performed at sea level and at standard temperatures
pa 1 2 a v3 2 where efficiency of the windmill in general less than 0 4 or 40
Pa = 1/2 ρ μ A v3         (2)where μ = efficiency of the windmill (in general less than 0.4, or 40%)
wind forecasting
Wind Forecasting
  • Wind direction can make a huge impact on power generation as turbine placement enhances turbine wake effects
    • Wake effects can propagate up to 10 times the blade diameter of the turbine (Danish Wind Industry Assocation)

Blade Lengths are ~35 meters (~114 ft) long

Wake can propagate up to 700 meters (~2296 ft)

The Diameter is then over 70 meters (~230 feet

slide17

A rare, aerial photo of an offshore windfarm in Denmark clearly shows how turbulence generated by large turbine rotors continues to build with each successive row of turbines.

weather impacts
Weather Impacts
  • High Winds
    • Turbines ‘cut-out’ at a predetermined wind speed to prevent damage to the turbine (blades, generator, etc.)
  • Cold Temps
    • Turbines ‘cut-out’ at predetermined temperatures to prevent damage
  • Precipitation
    • Rain and snow reduce power output
    • Freezing Rain may damage blades and throw ice
      • Decreases power output
other impacts
Other impacts
  • Debris buildup on blades
    • Dirt and insect buildup reduce the aerodynamics around the blade
communication
Communication
  • Information from the wind plant operators is critical in this whole process
    • Downtime due to different causes
      • Maintenance
      • Weather
      • Weather
      • Weather
key issues and solutions
Key Issues and Solutions
  • Wind and generation data
    • Attempting to acquire all wind speed, wind direction, and generation data by turbine
      • 1000’s of pieces of data to stream to a database
  • Modeling
    • Acquired the assistance of NCAR and NREL (National Central for Atmospheric Research and the National Renewable Energy Lab)
      • Use latest modeling technology and bias corrections to achieve better results for real-time and day-ahead wind and generation forecasts
slide23

Without improvements in Communication with wind plant operatorsData at the Turbine Level& Modeling we head down a dangerous path if we plan on integrating even more wind on our systems.

youtube video: turbine failure

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