Collaborative Inter-RPO Regional Modeling
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Collaborative Inter-RPO Regional Modeling James Boylan (Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch) 2009 Region 4 Modelers Workshop March 18, 2009. Outline. Background Model Runs PSAT Modeling Summary of Results. Background.

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Outline

Collaborative Inter-RPO Regional ModelingJames Boylan(Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch)2009 Region 4 Modelers WorkshopMarch 18, 2009


Outline

Outline

  • Background

  • Model Runs

  • PSAT Modeling

  • Summary of Results


Background

Background

  • VISTAS is part of a joint study with MRPO/LADCO and MANE-VU/OTC to analyze regional particulate matter (PM) and ozone transport in the Eastern U.S.

    • Support states response to CAIR remand

    • Quantify interstate impacts (Section 110(a)(2)(D))

    • Assess additional control needed for new ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS

  • CAMx v4.51 is being used to simulate future year PM2.5 and ozone levels and PSAT & OSAT are being used to perform source apportionment

    • 2009 Planning year for ozone moderate nonattainment areas and PM2.5 nonattainment areas (attainment date 2010)

    • 2012 Planning year for ozone moderate nonattainment areas and PM2.5 nonattainment areas, with 3-year extension

    • 2018 First milestone year for regional haze planning


Modeling domain

Modeling Domain

36-km PM2.5 domain

12-km Ozone domain


Pm2 5 model simulations

PM2.5 Model Simulations

  • Base Year Simulations

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2005 EI (MRPO, NY, VISTAS)  Done

    • CAMx/PSAT, 2002 Met, 2005 EI (NY)  Done

    • CAMx/PSAT, 2005 Met, 2005 EI (MRPO)  Done

  • Future Year Simulations

    • CAMx, 2002 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C (NY)  Done/Redo

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2018 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo

    • CAMx/PSAT, 2005 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C (VISTAS)  Done

    • CAMx/PSAT, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2009, 2012, 2018 EI Scenario D (LADCO)

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario E (LADCO)

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2018 EI Scenario F (LADCO)


Ozone model simulations

Ozone Model Simulations

  • Base Year Simulations

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2005 EI  Done

    • CAMx/OSAT, 2005 Met, 2005 EI

  • Future Year Simulations

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C  Done

    • CAMx/OSAT, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario E

    • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2018 EI Scenario F


Emission scenarios

Emission Scenarios

  • Scenario C (2009, 2012, 2018)

    • “Legally enforceable” controls + EPA NEEDS

  • Scenario D (2009, 2012, 2018)

    • Same as Scenario C + wintertime NOx controls

  • Scenario E (2012)

    • NOx limit of 0.125 lbs/MMBtu

    • SO2 limit of 0.250 lbs/MMBtu

  • Scenario F (2018)

    • NOx limit of 0.07 lbs/MMBtu

    • SO2 limit of 0.10 lbs/MMBtu


Psat modeling

32 PSAT Source Regions

6 PSAT Source Categories

EGU Point

Non-EGU Point

Ammonia + Biogenics

Non-Road (w/ Marine)

On-Road Mobile

Area Sources

PSAT Modeling


Outline

Speciated FRM vs CAMx


Outline

PSAT Contribution from GA


Significant contributions to annual pm2 5

“Significant” Contributionsto Annual PM2.5

NOTE: All results are PRELIMINARY.


Summary of results

Summary of Results

  • Model Performance

    • Underestimate summer SO4, overestimate winter NO3, underestimate OC (all seasons)

  • Identified 2012 Nonattainment Areas

  • Estimated individual state contributions to specific monitoring sites

    • Similar results with absolute and relative metrics

  • Similar results using 2002 and 2005 meteorology

    • Higher concentrations & more transport with 2002


Outline

Contact Information

Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA [email protected] 404-362-4851


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