Global Impacts of Emerging Technologies

1. Global Impacts of Emerging Technologies The Nanofactory: Science Fiction Becoming Reality Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology 21.02.2003

2. The Promise of ModernTechnology “A time when no one lacks for any need, and everyone is enabled to reach their full potential.” WARNING! Technology can be misused Advanced technology = Advanced dangers

3. What Is Nanotechnology? Two kinds of nanotech • Structural nanotechnology (SNT) • Current technology • Exploiting properties of nanoscale structures • Molecular nanotechnology (MNT) • Near future technology • Designing and manipulating individual molecules • Building shapes…machines…products • Also known as molecular manufacturing

4. What Is a Nanofactory? Simplest, safest way to make wide use of advanced nanotechnology • Portable, non-polluting, easy to use machine • Manufactures almost anything in just a few hours –- including copies of itself! • Uses CAD program to design new and improved products • Cost of materials: ~ $1 per pound

5. How Will It Be Built? • Assembler comes first • Single assembler builds a two-assembler device • Which builds a four-assembler device • Which builds a tiny nanofactory • Each small nanofactory makes a bigger one • This scales quickly to tabletop size

6. Is It Really Possible? “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.” — Arthur C. Clarke "If you're looking ahead long-term, and what you see looks like science fiction, it might be wrong. But if it doesn't look like science fiction, it's definitely wrong." — Christine Peterson

7. When Will It Happen? • Prediction range: 10 years to never • Hardest step is assembler • After that, it’s only a matter of weeks to a macroscale nanofactory • First nanofactory copies itself, etc. • In a few months, you could have billions of nanofactories –- enough for one in every household in the world!

8. Who Will Be Affected? • Everyone and everything • Weapons and warfare • Security and privacy • Economics and human rights • Environmental risks and benefits “The nanotechnology revolution has the potential to change America on a scale equal to, if not greater than, the computer revolution."  —  Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.)

9. Who Is Working on It? • Institute for Molecular Manufacturing - Theoretical research into building assemblers • Zyvex - Practical research into building assemblers • Center for Responsible Nanotechnology - Nanofactory design research • University and corporate research worldwide • Covert programs??

10. Threshold for Beginning a Nanofactory Development Project $6B Global, multi-nation project Decreasing Projected Cost $4B Leading industrial nation $2B Huge multinational corporation $1B Wealthy non-aligned nation Multinational terrorist organization $500M 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

11. CRN’s Platform • Effective use of nanotechnology can benefit everyone • Unwise use of nanotechnology can be very dangerous • Nanofactory technology can be used safely • Preventing nanotechnology is impossible; careful study will be necessary for wise use • Effective use of nanotechnology will require intelligent and prudent policy-making • The situation is urgent; nanofactories may be developed within a decade “CRN is addressing the crucial policy issues in advanced nanotechnology—not just responsibly, but creatively." —  K. Eric Drexler

12. Thank You!More information: www.CRNano.org Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology™ © 2003, CRN © 2003, CRN