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"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts, and to do the science of geographical ecology is to search for patterns of plant and animal life that can be put on a map. ... Doing science is not such a barrier to feeling

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"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts,

and to do the science of geographical ecology is to search for patterns of plant and

animal life that can be put on a map. ... Doing science is not such a barrier to feeling

or such a dehumanizing influence as is often made out. It does not take the beauty

from nature. The only rules of scientific method are honest observations and accurate

logic. To be great science it must also be guided by a judgment, almost an instinct, for

what is worth studying. No one should feel that honesty and accuracy guided by

imagination have any power to take away nature's beauty."

Robert A. MacArthur, 1972


What is Ecology the science of? simply to accumulate facts,

DEF: The scientific study of the distribution & abundance of organisms

and their interactions that determine their distribution & abundance

  • Its vague

  • Its boring

  • It doesn’t capture the flavor of ecology


Something more captivating simply to accumulate facts,


Phainopepla simply to accumulate facts,

& mistletoe

1) The fit of Form & Function

Decorator crab


Deepest recorded dive of an Elephant Seal is 2,388  simply to accumulate facts, metres (7,835 ft)


Predator-prey simply to accumulate facts,

interactions


Mutualisms simply to accumulate facts,

Aphid-goldenrod-ant

http://homepages.ius.edu/RHUNT01/research/Graminella.htm


2) Species Diversity simply to accumulate facts,


3) Out-of “Balance of Nature” simply to accumulate facts,


Environment simply to accumulate facts,

Last Year: The Warmest Year On Record (Again)

That makes 2010 the 34th consecutive year when the global

temperature was above average.


Institute of simply to accumulate facts,

Ecosystem

tudies

(1998-2010)


Oak-dominated forest experience frequent simply to accumulate facts,

resource pulses in the form of acorn crops


A (food-web) Model simply to accumulate facts,

St+1

+

At


0.10 simply to accumulate facts,

0.08

0.06

Nest daily mortality rate

0.04

0.02

0.00

0

50

100

150

Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha)


The Model simply to accumulate facts,

expands

-

?when?

St+1

+

At


0.10 simply to accumulate facts,

0.08

0.06

Nest daily mortality rate

0.04

0.02

0.00

0

50

100

150

Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha)

Probability of

fledging young:

Good years

~ 65%

Moderate

~ 20%

Bad years

< 10%

Translate into regional

fluctuations in songbird

densities w/respect to

rodent/acorn densities


The Breeding Bird Survey simply to accumulate facts,

is a network of over 3000

sampling routes across NA

If…

then…

?

Nest predation

Adult birds (t+1)

Rodents

Rodents


- simply to accumulate facts,

-

When rodents

common

When rodents

crash

-

St+1

+

Two ways

songbirds can lose

Model

At


Survivorship of fledgling birds was lowest simply to accumulate facts,

during a rodent crash


Part II simply to accumulate facts, : Using population models to examine the relationship

between long-term population growth and masting dynamics

0.10

1999: =0.712 - 0.878

Veery

0.08

0.06

Nest daily mortality rate

0.04

0.02

2000: =1.028 - 1.267

0.00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Rodent abundance (MNA)


Simulated masting dynamics simply to accumulate facts,

30

(c)

(a)

0.6

0.5

20

0.4

Crop size

Proportion per Bar

0.3

10

0.2

0.1

0.0

0

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ln (crop size)

Year


Acorns simply to accumulate facts,  rodents  nest predation rates  seasonal fecundity

Acorns:simulated to match the range of variability (min-max) seen at IES

Acorns  rodents: empirical relationships

Rodents nest predation: empirical relationships

Nest predation  seasonal fecundity: formulation in Schmidt

and Whelan (1998)

Survival rates: estimated from the literature

Prey-switching by raptors: juvenile survivorship declines 25% following

crash of rodent population


1.04 simply to accumulate facts,

1.02

1.00

Long-term growth rate

0.98

0

0.25

0.5

0.96

0.75

1

0.94

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Masting frequency

  • Negative relationship

  • Strong relationship

Population

increasing

Population

decreasing


Is variability in masting dynamics responsible for geographical

differences in songbird population trends?

Veery (Catharus fuscescens)


A brief geographical history (and future) of

changes to eastern forests and

mast-producing trees

Declines in moth

outbreaks?

Extirpation of

Pass. Pigeon

Forest regeneration and succession………..

?

Forest

Destruction

Chestnut blight

Gypsy moths

Beech bark

disease

Climate

Change;

SOD


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