"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts,
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"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts, and to do the science of geographical ecology is to search for patterns of plant and animal life that can be put on a map. ... Doing science is not such a barrier to feeling

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"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts,

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To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts,

and to do the science of geographical ecology is to search for patterns of plant and

animal life that can be put on a map. ... Doing science is not such a barrier to feeling

or such a dehumanizing influence as is often made out. It does not take the beauty

from nature. The only rules of scientific method are honest observations and accurate

logic. To be great science it must also be guided by a judgment, almost an instinct, for

what is worth studying. No one should feel that honesty and accuracy guided by

imagination have any power to take away nature's beauty."

Robert A. MacArthur, 1972


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

What is Ecology the science of?

DEF: The scientific study of the distribution & abundance of organisms

and their interactions that determine their distribution & abundance

  • Its vague

  • Its boring

  • It doesn’t capture the flavor of ecology


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Something more captivating


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Phainopepla

& mistletoe

1) The fit of Form & Function

Decorator crab


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Deepest recorded dive of an Elephant Seal is 2,388 metres (7,835 ft)


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Predator-prey

interactions


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Mutualisms

Aphid-goldenrod-ant

http://homepages.ius.edu/RHUNT01/research/Graminella.htm


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

2) Species Diversity


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

3) Out-of “Balance of Nature”


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Environment

Last Year: The Warmest Year On Record (Again)

That makes 2010 the 34th consecutive year when the global

temperature was above average.


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Institute of

Ecosystem

tudies

(1998-2010)


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Oak-dominated forest experience frequent

resource pulses in the form of acorn crops


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

A (food-web) Model

St+1

+

At


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

0.10

0.08

0.06

Nest daily mortality rate

0.04

0.02

0.00

0

50

100

150

Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha)


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

The Model

expands

-

?when?

St+1

+

At


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

0.10

0.08

0.06

Nest daily mortality rate

0.04

0.02

0.00

0

50

100

150

Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha)

Probability of

fledging young:

Good years

~ 65%

Moderate

~ 20%

Bad years

< 10%

Translate into regional

fluctuations in songbird

densities w/respect to

rodent/acorn densities


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

The Breeding Bird Survey

is a network of over 3000

sampling routes across NA

If…

then…

?

Nest predation

Adult birds (t+1)

Rodents

Rodents


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

-

-

When rodents

common

When rodents

crash

-

St+1

+

Two ways

songbirds can lose

Model

At


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Survivorship of fledgling birds was lowest

during a rodent crash


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Part II: Using population models to examine the relationship

between long-term population growth and masting dynamics

0.10

1999: =0.712 - 0.878

Veery

0.08

0.06

Nest daily mortality rate

0.04

0.02

2000: =1.028 - 1.267

0.00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Rodent abundance (MNA)


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Simulated masting dynamics

30

(c)

(a)

0.6

0.5

20

0.4

Crop size

Proportion per Bar

0.3

10

0.2

0.1

0.0

0

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ln (crop size)

Year


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Acorns  rodents  nest predation rates  seasonal fecundity

Acorns:simulated to match the range of variability (min-max) seen at IES

Acorns  rodents: empirical relationships

Rodents nest predation: empirical relationships

Nest predation  seasonal fecundity: formulation in Schmidt

and Whelan (1998)

Survival rates: estimated from the literature

Prey-switching by raptors: juvenile survivorship declines 25% following

crash of rodent population


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

1.04

1.02

1.00

Long-term growth rate

0.98

0

0.25

0.5

0.96

0.75

1

0.94

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Masting frequency

  • Negative relationship

  • Strong relationship

Population

increasing

Population

decreasing


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

Is variability in masting dynamics responsible for geographical

differences in songbird population trends?

Veery (Catharus fuscescens)


To do science is to search for repeated patterns not simply to accumulate facts

A brief history (and future) of

changes to eastern forests and

mast-producing trees

Declines in moth

outbreaks?

Extirpation of

Pass. Pigeon

Forest regeneration and succession………..

?

Forest

Destruction

Chestnut blight

Gypsy moths

Beech bark

disease

Climate

Change;

SOD


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