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Workforce Development and the TAFE sector National TAFE Council AGM 15 January 2010

Workforce Development and the TAFE sector National TAFE Council AGM 15 January 2010. Robin Shreeve CEO, Skills Australia. Higher education will be 'on its knees' after cuts By Nicholas Timmins, Public Policy Editor Published: January 13 2010 02:00 | Last updated: January 13 2010 02:00

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Workforce Development and the TAFE sector National TAFE Council AGM 15 January 2010

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  1. Workforce Development and the TAFE sectorNational TAFE Council AGM15 January 2010 Robin Shreeve CEO, Skills Australia

  2. Higher education will be 'on its knees' after cuts By Nicholas Timmins, Public Policy Editor Published: January 13 2010 02:00 | Last updated: January 13 2010 02:00 The spending cuts that are set to hit higher education during the next few years risk bringing an 800-year-old success story "to its knees", top universities have warned the government. With cuts on the horizon that could total £2.5bn - or a third of current annual spending - the Russell Group of 20 leading universities has warned that "it has taken more than 800 years to create one of the world's greatest education systems, and it looks like it will take just six months to bring it to its knees".

  3. Skills Australia: focus on the future • Philip Bullock • Professor Gerald Burke • Sharan Burrow • Dr Michael Keating AC • Marie Persson • Heather Ridout • Keith Spence Skills Australia will provide the Government with recommendations on current and future skills needs (and) inform Australia’s workforce development needs … Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech, Skills Australia Bill 2008

  4. Major initiatives • Foundations For The Future – VET national regulation • Workforce Futures – unleashing productivity, including implications for VET

  5. Productivity, participation and inclusion • Examine and plan for the demand for skills in the future • Better coordination across education, government and industry sectors • Improve the value from skills investment; and the relationship between skills and productivity Powering the workplace: Realising Australia’s skills potential Workforce Futures Papers to promote discussion Towards an Australian Workforce Development Strategy What does the future hold? Meeting Australia’s skill needs

  6. Demand for future skills Current workforce trends Planning for an uncertain future Modelling and forecasts Analysis current& trend data 3 Scenarios (Shell Group) Access Economics Background Paper 1 Where are we headed? Are skills enough? How do we get there? Agreement on national skill priorities and a shared approach by governments

  7. Possible futures: workforce growth to 2025Access Economics modelling Projected total employment growth rates 1 Number of people in the Australian workforce in 2025 (based on the three scenarios): Open Doors: 15.3 million Low-trust globalisation: 13.7 million Flags: 12.5 million 1.Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)

  8. Modelling findings 2025 A shortfall in the supply of qualifications – most pronounced in 2015, reducing by 2025. Relatively weak demand for Certificate III and IV under each scenario and strong demand for graduates at bachelor level. Skilled migration will meet demand for qualifications except in highest growth scenario. What other policy responses are needed?

  9. Supply and demandAccess Economics modelling The projected supply of qualifications less the projected labour market demand 1 However, skilled migration plays a significant role in supplementing the supply of qualifications, and if it remains at current levels, these deficits may be made up through Australia’s skilled migrant intake. 1. Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)

  10. ‘Matching’ skills and jobs in fluid labour markets? People may not seek or find careers in their field of learning 40% end up in jobs which match their VET study Initial education or training becomes less relevant over time 45% workers change jobs every three years Importance of generic, cognitive and interpersonal skills in a service-based economy Skills are more than qualifications

  11. Planning for ‘specialised’ occupations PROPOSED CRITERIA FOR SPECIALISED OCCUPATIONS • Long lead time – those skills which are highly specialised and require extended learning and preparation time • 4 years or more for HE courses; 3 years or more to achieve VET qualification • High use – those skills which are deployed for the uses intended (that is, there is a good occupational ‘fit’) • There is a more than 50% match between the training and the destination occupation • Significant disruption – where the opportunity cost of the skills being in short supply is high (eg registered nurse or doctor) • High information – where the quality of information about the occupation is adequate

  12. Strong growth in education sector occupations Projected average employment growth per annum 2010 - 2025 1 Education and training is expected to grow at a much faster pace than in the recent past as a consequence of new government education and training policies. Workforce Futures: Background Paper One 1. Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)

  13. Evidence of skill under-use People (number in ‘000 and per cent) with a non-school qualification employed at a lower level 1 Complexities: • Graduates with qualifications exceeding job needs • Employers find difficulty in recruiting 1. ABS, Survey of education and work 2001 and 2007, unpublished data using ASCO coding, Cat no.6227.0. The bars are percentages, with actual numbers of students in ‘000s also noted.

  14. The way forward for VET Building education and training provider capacity to meet future skills needs…

  15. Are separate streams of funding necessary? • Individuals enrolled in publicly funded VET programs • Enterprise: public funding for the application and development of skills in the workplace

  16. Benefits from improving course completions • Monitoring attendance and performance • Providing additional learning support to encourage completion • Improving the fit between course selection and career choice • Lower drop-out rates The completion rate for apprentices and trainees who commenced training in 2003 was 48.5 per cent. NCVER Apprentices & Trainees 2008 Annual

  17. Features of VET enrolments 1. NCVER National VET Provider Collection (2006) 25 per cent of VET subject enrolments in 2008 were not job or business related NCVER unpublished data

  18. The ageing TAFE workforce 67% of TAFE practitioners are over 45 years Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (1996, 2001b, 2006a).

  19. Older VET professionals concentrated in TAFE sector Source: ABS Survey of Education and Training (1997, 2001a, 2005)

  20. Action needed on VET workforce development • A workforce development strategy for the tertiary education sector • Raising adult core skill levels • Addressing the complex skills of vulnerable jobseekers • Encouraging more VET-industry partnerships

  21. Workforce Development and the TAFE sectorNational TAFE Council AGM

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