Welcome to NSBA’s 23 Annual T+L Conference Denver, Colorado

1. Welcome to NSBA’s 23 Annual T+L Conference Denver, Colorado Come Visit us in the TLN/NA Networking Room #212 Follow the T+L Conversation

2. Education 2015: Given Technology, Demographic, Economic, and Social Trends, What May Be Our Worlds of US Education in 2015? Gigi JohnsonLecturer, UCLA AndersonExecutive Director, Maremel Institute October 2009

3. Questions at Hand • What will the US education and related technology expectations and platforms look like in 2015? • How do we talk about this -- as organizations and decision-makers – in structures focused on annual funding-based planning cycles? • Gathering data, collaboration, design, creation? • Or just annual resource allocations?

4. BIG Questions for 2015 • Shifts or discontinuous jolts? • Who and what will we teach? Demographics, job markets, skills, challenges as citizens? • How we decide? How can districts plan ahead in this economically challenged environment? • How can we encourage changes from technology that can improve learning processes? • How do you make changes NOW to build capacities?

5. Roundtable Discussion #1 • What will the world outside the district be like in 2015? • “STEP” Analysis • Society • Technology • Economic • Politics/Policy

6. “STEP” Analysis • Society – demographics, attitudes, expectations (friction) • Technology – interfaces, storage, hardware, software, services (friction) • Economics – economic cycles, where the money comes from (friction) • Politics – legislation, election cycles, board and local politics and voices (jolts)

7. Society: Who We Teach?

8. US: Mostly Just More

9. But Depends on Your State

10. Leading to More College

11. Mythical More Funds Per Student?

12. Increases in High Tech Jobs Source: BLS, Daniel Hecker, Monthly labor Review, July 2005

13. Job Growth: Unskilled + Symbolic Analysts Source: BLS 2002

14. ‘06-’16: US Job Additions Ready for On the Job Training? Source: BLS ’07; thousands, US

15. Top 2016 Growth Spin: BLS

16. Technology: Changing Rules

17. Tech-Driven New “Competition” • Lifelong learning: Transitioning norm • Education everywhere: Not just private schools but open university courses, online K-12, blended learning-- geographic limits dropping • “Co-opetition” with 8-16 hours/week of teen gaming time, virtual worlds, social networking, texting, and upcoming mobile Internet surge • Different modes of thinking/learning/knowing

18. Tech-Released “Filters” • Data deluge for students – surge in plagiarism in colleges – few deals to learn well • Open classroom – classroom walls and content no longer a limit • Question of need for memorization in a world of search and instant knowledge • “Search” = “Truth”?

19. Limits: No Longer Boundaries • Display format/surface/sensory structure • Assumes paper then single screen at front of room…to laptop….to mobile? • Interface from interface and complexity of device: • Need easy UIs for diverse teacher and student environments • Open source Learning Platforms now matter of course • Permanent need for ongoing training – not budgeted!! • Storage and media format limits • Servers onsite have turned to annual per student fee or school license deliveries with high (?) switching costs – and limited decision frameworks • Costs of creation (historically assumed high, impacting both traditional media and schools’ content creation vs. acquisition) Historical limits play into business contract assumptions/formats: • Textbook: approval cycles, credibility from advisory boards, state approval processes – but what about new technology and online? • Web Video: 100mb You Tube initial storage/transmission limits, now complete delivery online

20. One Framework: Gartner’s Hype Cycle of Adoption 4. "Slope of Enlightenment“ Businesses experimenting Press stops covering 5. "Plateau of Productivity“ 2nd & 3rd version tech/stable Benefits accepted & demonstrated Height: niche or broad www.gartner.com 1. "Technology Trigger” • Breakthrough or other event • Generates significant press and interest 2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations“ • Frenzy of publicity • Over-enthusiasm & unrealistic expectations 3. "Trough of Disillusionment” • Fail to meet expectations • Press abandons topic

21. 2009 Hype Cycles – Indications for 2015?

22. New Limit Pressures • Storage • Cloud Services; Software as Service and new path dependencies • Battery/power • Compression (continuing) • Chip speed/size – Moore’s Law • Heat (heat?)/energy use • Tools for inexpensive creation Source: Intel.com1965: prediction that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years

23. Diffusion of Innovation (Rogers) US Broadband US Mobile Source: Rogers, 1962/1983

24. US Below Social Surge… Empowering Education by…..? Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/08

25. Web 2.5 Issues/Opportunities • NSF 2008 Cyberlearning Study Issues/Opportunities (a) • Participatory Web • Open Education • Software tools on broad scale • Contextual Web/Semantic Web • Mass shifting to Niche • Ubiquitous Computing – everywhere, always • Self-Actualization • Creativity unleashed – 10% of the general public vs 40% of younger audiences • Marginalized Connectivity • Gathering of the marginalized – pro-ani, pro-mia, gang recruiting Source: “Fostering Learning in the Networked World: The Cyberlearning Opportunity and Challenge,” NSF, June 2008

26. BRIC: Next Billion Global Online Users Source: Universal McCann Wave4 7/09

27. Data Diaspora: Everywhere

28. Mobile Internet Doubling

29. Facebook/YouTube: Gaining Global Time/Influence

30. Connection + Presence = ?

31. Not Just iPhone: Data Everywhere

32. Economics and Politics: Paying for NCLB and Pressures • - More outside “free” resources • - Less live repetition – record, timeshift to pre-class prep. • Flip lecture and class time – increasing trend • +? Online and blended learning • Changing competencies, expectations, time • +? Per seat outsourcing • - Open source: Linux, Moodle • - Declining costs: Storage, bandwidth, gear • -? Online support • - Textbooks vs. library databases, chapters, and online • +/- ?Replacement cycles of hardware and software • Maintenance and sinking funds • +/-? Automating individualization • Quizzes and tests • Customization/personalization • ?? Friction to change • ?? Time and project management Higher cost per seat of expenses -- or lower?

33. Next 18 Months’ Big Shift Drivers • Mobile -- instant everywhere • Google/Grok -- nature of school-driven knowledge • Digital records -- Rights and opportunities • Plagiarism – lack of structural PD and education in Digital media literacy • Software semi-annual purchases to Software-as-a-Service (locked-in annual spending dent) • Open source textbooks

34. Cross-Influence: Society & Technology • New permanent void: Lifelong Technology Learning and Capability Growth • Professional Development – learning how to learn about technology long-term – communities of practice • Parent ed – big hole with no one else filling it • Digital literacy – kids, parents, and teachers • Social Equity Issues -- School/home barriers • Digital divide + age-related issues • Temporary question? Of access at home? At school? BIG unfunded social gap • Symbolic analyst = differentiated, higher pay jobs • Privacy/legal issues • Workforce needs • Training & skills development – long-term skills, not just college prep • Skill planning – not just getting out of school

35. Politics/Economics: Friction • NCLB, New Name, Same Game? • Cost to deliver – increasing or decreasing? • Tech Spending and District Technology Plan • Impact of continuing “Global Economic Slowdown,” “The New Normal,” Deficit Spending, political friction • Increasing movements toward transparency • Pressure from home to add or not add technology • Pressure from teachers’ unions

36. Roundtable Question #3 • What are your biggest pressures from long-term economics and political factors?

37. Roundtable Question #4a • How do you make technology decisions as a district? • CIO recommends? • Driven by teachers’ and community collaboration? • Driven by teaching goals of long-term Technology Plan? • How evaluated for effectiveness? • How designed for effectiveness? • Pushed by brands? Lockin? Open Source options?

38. Roundtable Question #4b • What are your districts’ politics of technological decision-making? • Who are the experts (official & unofficial)? • Who influences decisions? • Who makes them? • Who isn’t involved who should be? • Who frames the questions and invites action? • From whom do you gain buy-off by building them into the decision process?

39. Roundtable Question #4c • How do you look at District Competencies? • Do you look at resources to build long-term? • Do you look at technology expertise to build long-term? • What do you listen to? Who do you listen to?

40. Roundtable Question #5 • Whose “knowledge” do you build and celebrate? Do you share and build on what teachers and students are creating? • Do you use collaboration tools? • Do you record great processes and allow teachers to grow new abilities (not scheduled PD)?

41. Design Tools to Steer Clearer • Gap analysis -- competencies and resources to match probable needs in 3-5 years • Core competencies -- Intentionally grown? Hired? Outsourced? Collaborated? • Technology plan changes -- use as collaboration tool with real benchmarks and tied to curriculum needs of 3-5 years out (not catching up with this year) – and updated/measured annually by a broad advisory group to continue buy-in and ideas • Creativity/collaboration/conversations • Design a desired future, not just a response to 2010

42. Take-Home Questions • Is technology about creating knowledge and competencies that match the organizational needs long-term? • Are choices about “buying” the right technologies right now or using these affordances to teach better, faster, smarter…and longer? • What knowledge and expertise are your district sharing and building toward?

43. Evaluation Questions Text to: 36263 Key Word: Enter your session code here Did you find this session informative?    •  Extremely (100a)    • Somewhat (100b)  • Waste of Time (100c)

44. Evaluation Questions Text to: 36263 Key Word: Enter your session code here Did you leave with a better understanding of the content? • Yes (101a)    • Somewhat (101b)  • No (101c)

45. Last Question Text to: 36263 Key Word: Enter your session code here How would you rate the presenter? Rank 1 – 5 (1 being lowest and 5 being highest)  1 (102a)  2 (102b) 3 (102c) 4 (102d) 5 (102 e)

46. Speaker Contact Info http://www.maremel.com Gigi Johnson gigi@maremel.com