Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning:
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Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning: Predictions and Observations of Large-Scale Phenomena during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX. M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams, H. Fischer, M. de Reus, J. Lelieveld, P. J. Crutzen, H. Huntrieser,

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Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning: Predictions and Observations of Large-Scale Phenomena during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX

M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams,

H. Fischer, M. de Reus, J. Lelieveld, P. J. Crutzen, H. Huntrieser,

J. Heland, A. Stohl, C. Forster, M. Schultz, P. Stier, R. R. Dickerson

IGAC2002 Conference

Crete, 23 September 2002


Meteorological Planning:

Weather

Forecasts

Forward and

Backward

Trajectories

Flight

Planning

Stratospheric

Chemical

Weather

Forecasts

Regional

Tropospheric

Global

Tropospheric


The chemical weather forecast system
The Chemical Weather Forecast System Planning:

  • MATCH-MPIC

    • Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry

    • NMHC Chemistry (up to C5 HCs)

    • 56 Species, 140 Reactions

    • Online wet & dry dep, j-vals, emissions

  • Meteorology: NCEP AVN

    • Diagnosed H2O, Clouds, Convection

  • Near real time (NRT) run

  • 3-day Forecasts


Field campaigns overview
Field Campaigns Overview Planning:

  • INDOEX (February-March, 1999)

    • Forecasted flights: 3

    • Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.74, rFcst = 0.73

  • MINOS (August, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 5

    • Objectives: European Outflow, Asian Monsoon Plume

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.75, rFcst = 0.76

  • CONTRACE (November, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part)

    • Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes

    • CO Comparison:rNRT = 0.82, rFcst = 0.80

  • Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC

  • Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2


Field campaigns overview1
Field Campaigns Overview Planning:

  • INDOEX (February-March, 1999)

    • Forecasted flights: 3

    • Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.74, rFcst = 0.73

  • MINOS (August, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 5

    • Objectives: European Outflow,Asian Monsoon Plume

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.75, rFcst = 0.76

  • CONTRACE (November, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part)

    • Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes

    • CO Comparison:rNRT = 0.82, rFcst = 0.80

  • Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC

  • Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2


Minos asian monsoon plume
MINOS Asian Monsoon Plume Planning:

100

250

500

Pressure (hPa)

750

1000

90N

0

90S

180W

90W

0

90E

180E



Match mpic forecasts
MATCH-MPIC Forecasts Planning:

=> Also similar CO tracer forecasts from ECHAM


Asian plume observations
Asian Plume Observations Planning:

=> Also similar CO tracer results from ECHAM


Asian plume frequency

MATCH-MPIC Planning:

Output:

Total CO (NRT)

Total CO (2-day Fcst)

Asian CO (N+S)

(30 Sept)

(1 July)

Asian Plume Frequency

100W:9%

Crete:23%

100E:42%

100S:33%


Conclusions
Conclusions Planning:

  • Global chemical weather forecasting works well

    • CO and regional CO tracers most valuable so far

    • r  0.75 for CO in all campaigns

    • Assimilation not required for CO

  • Global => intercontinental transport

    • Southern Asian monsoon plume (MINOS)

    • North American outflow (CONTRACE)

  • More info:

    • http://www.mpch-mainz.mpg.de/~lawrence/forecasts.html

      • interactive plotting system

    • Lawrence et al., submitted to Atmos. Chem. Phys.


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