Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning:
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Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning: Predictions and Observations of Large-Scale Phenomena during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX. M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams, H. Fischer, M. de Reus, J. Lelieveld, P. J. Crutzen, H. Huntrieser,

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M g lawrence p j rasch r von kuhlmann j williams

Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning: Predictions and Observations of Large-Scale Phenomena during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX

M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams,

H. Fischer, M. de Reus, J. Lelieveld, P. J. Crutzen, H. Huntrieser,

J. Heland, A. Stohl, C. Forster, M. Schultz, P. Stier, R. R. Dickerson

IGAC2002 Conference

Crete, 23 September 2002


M g lawrence p j rasch r von kuhlmann j williams

Meteorological

Weather

Forecasts

Forward and

Backward

Trajectories

Flight

Planning

Stratospheric

Chemical

Weather

Forecasts

Regional

Tropospheric

Global

Tropospheric


The chemical weather forecast system

The Chemical Weather Forecast System

  • MATCH-MPIC

    • Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry

    • NMHC Chemistry (up to C5 HCs)

    • 56 Species, 140 Reactions

    • Online wet & dry dep, j-vals, emissions

  • Meteorology: NCEP AVN

    • Diagnosed H2O, Clouds, Convection

  • Near real time (NRT) run

  • 3-day Forecasts


Field campaigns overview

Field Campaigns Overview

  • INDOEX (February-March, 1999)

    • Forecasted flights: 3

    • Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.74, rFcst = 0.73

  • MINOS (August, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 5

    • Objectives: European Outflow, Asian Monsoon Plume

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.75, rFcst = 0.76

  • CONTRACE (November, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part)

    • Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes

    • CO Comparison:rNRT = 0.82, rFcst = 0.80

  • Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC

  • Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2


Field campaigns overview1

Field Campaigns Overview

  • INDOEX (February-March, 1999)

    • Forecasted flights: 3

    • Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.74, rFcst = 0.73

  • MINOS (August, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 5

    • Objectives: European Outflow,Asian Monsoon Plume

    • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.75, rFcst = 0.76

  • CONTRACE (November, 2001)

    • Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part)

    • Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes

    • CO Comparison:rNRT = 0.82, rFcst = 0.80

  • Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC

  • Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2


Minos asian monsoon plume

MINOS Asian Monsoon Plume

100

250

500

Pressure (hPa)

750

1000

90N

0

90S

180W

90W

0

90E

180E


Minos asian monsoon plume1

MINOS Asian Monsoon Plume


Match mpic forecasts

MATCH-MPIC Forecasts

=> Also similar CO tracer forecasts from ECHAM


Asian plume observations

Asian Plume Observations

=> Also similar CO tracer results from ECHAM


Asian plume frequency

MATCH-MPIC

Output:

Total CO (NRT)

Total CO (2-day Fcst)

Asian CO (N+S)

(30 Sept)

(1 July)

Asian Plume Frequency

100W:9%

Crete:23%

100E:42%

100S:33%


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Global chemical weather forecasting works well

    • CO and regional CO tracers most valuable so far

    • r ï‚» 0.75 for CO in all campaigns

    • Assimilation not required for CO

  • Global => intercontinental transport

    • Southern Asian monsoon plume (MINOS)

    • North American outflow (CONTRACE)

  • More info:

    • http://www.mpch-mainz.mpg.de/~lawrence/forecasts.html

      • interactive plotting system

    • Lawrence et al., submitted to Atmos. Chem. Phys.


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