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Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. Marine Meteorology Program March 5, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Research Sponsored by the Office of Naval Research. Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. Marine Meteorology Program March 5, 2013. Marine Meteorology -- Navy -Unique Forecast Location: Global to Local, rapid response anywhere Navy Operates in the MABL

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Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. Marine Meteorology Program March 5, 2013

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  1. Tropical Cyclone Research Sponsored by the Office of Naval Research Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. Marine Meteorology Program March 5, 2013

  2. Marine Meteorology--Navy-Unique Forecast Location: Global to Local, rapid response anywhere Navy Operates in the MABL NWP and Ocean Prediction are 2 of the 4 Core Competencies of NMOC (production centers at FNMOC and NAVO) Vertical integration from S&T to Operations (R2O) Current Research Emphases Air-Sea interaction, coupled modeling Next-generation global coupled NWP (ESPC talk in later session) State-of-the-art DA and exploitation of quantitative remote sensing Tropical cyclone genesis, structure, intensity and modeling WestPac emphasis to support JTWC mission Core programs have decreased in favor of Research Initiatives Focus effort on difficult problems, opportunities to advance the science, logical progression, exploit discoveries for transition to operations (impact) Examples: TCM-90, CBLAST, TCS-08, ITOP, TCI-14 Marine Meteorology Overview

  3. Why we do TC research DOD is vulnerable Tropical cyclone tracks: 1998-2007

  4. Why we do TC research • Fleet priority since WWII • Establishment of JTWC in 1959 • TC Research an ONR program thrust since 1980 • 1984 goal set by CINCPACFLT: reduce 72h track error to 150nm • Research focused on track in ‘80s and early ‘90s • Goal achieved in 2002 • “Tropical cyclones…continue to be the most disruptive and devastating peacetime threat affecting operations within the USPACOM AOR”—Capt. John O’Hara, Fleet Oceanographer • New USPACOM TC Forecasting Goals issued in 2009 • Reduce position errors to 75nm at 72 hr, 150nm at 120hr and 200nm at 168hr • Predict the radius of 35 and 50kt winds within 20% through 168hr • Develop products that display uncertainty in a dynamic and probabilistic sense • Forecast the intensity (max winds) to within 20% at 168hr

  5. Legacy (and Impact) of ONR Tropical Cyclone Field Experiments • TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION (TCM-90) • First international tropical cyclone field experiment with special observations • from NASA DC-8, Japanese weather ships (3), Russian oceanographic • ships (4), and Taiwan collaborators • Accomplishments: • - Documented three-dimensional structure of steering flow in monsoon environment • - Documented TC beta-effect propagation as function of outer vortex wind structure • - Documented 3-D structure of Supertyphoon Flo with minimum pressure of 891 mb • - Documented ocean response to typhoons • TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION (TCM-92, TCM-93) • - Follow-on experiments with two USAF Reserve C-130s • - Documented role of monsoon depressions in typhoon formation • - Documented role of mesoscale convective systems in typhoon formation • Impact: Led to significant advances in track forecasting at JTWC and achieved the 1984 goal set by CINCPACFLT in 2002

  6. TCM Impact: Reduction of JTWC Track Errors (Western North Pacific - 24-72 Hours) Annual errors are at all time low values But…5 yr averages are not decreasing TCM-90 Appl. res.

  7. Legacy (and Impact) of ONR TC Field Experiments ONR CBLAST DRI, 2001-2007 Coupled Boundary Layers and Air-Sea Transfer • OBJECTIVE: Understand the physical processes of air-sea interaction at low and very high wind conditions • Hurricane component of CBLAST • Initial 5-year program to measure, analyze and understand the critical air-sea coupling at hurricane winds • 2-yr follow-on effort to exploit findings and develop advanced parameterizations Accomplishments: Development of new wave-modulated drag parameterizations resulted in first ever realistic model simulations of TC intensity Impact:Began applied research to develop an operational capability (COAMPS-TC) for predicting TC intensity. Led to improvements in a number of other mesoscale TC models. (Now a major activity in the HFIP program) Motivation: Few observations and little understanding of air-sea transfer processes in very low (<7 m/s) and very high (>30 m/s) wind regimes Major Performers: WHOI, SIO, UWash, OSU, UH, UMiami, URI, UWisc, MIT, NRL, NASA, NOAA

  8. Problem: Cannot predict the evolution of disturbances in the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific (genesis, structure & intensity changes, outer winds, etc.) Approach: Conducted field experiments in Aug-Sept 08 to examine the evolution of Westpac TCs from genesis to fully mature storms. An integrated effort of research flights, remotely sensed atmosphere and ocean observations, and testing in a coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere modeling system (COAMPS-TC). Impact: Increased predictability of environmental factors that influence tropical cyclone formation, the evolution of the outer-wind structure, and of factors that determine ET or landfall. TY Fred TCS-08 DRI: The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific Typhoons Pre-TY Gladys • Guam Philippines Pre-TY Harry GOAL: to reduce errors in TC structure and intensity forecasts by 50% within a decade

  9. Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiment (TCS-08) Partnership withTHORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Driftsonde center, Okinawa Japan Operations center, NPS, Monterey, CA Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers Taiwan Driftsonde Balloon release, Hawaii Guam • 9 participating nations • Canada, China, U.K., France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, United States • Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours • 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR • 76 missions • 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR • 7 airfields • Andersen AFB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AFB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan • 11 tropical circulation systems • 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others

  10. NRL P-3 C-130 DOTSTAR DLR F-20 TCS-08: Examined the entire lifecycle of a tropical cyclone (formation, intensification, and structure change)TY Sinlaku aircraft sampling (9-21 Sept 2008) Japan Okinawa Taiwan Guam

  11. Initial Grid Set-up Animation of COAMPS predicted radar reflectivity every 30 minutes on 5 km moving grid (24-72 h) 72h/985mb 72h/913mb 48h/916mb 48h/916mb 24h959mb 24h/925mb 0h 0h COAMPS Forecast Track (red) and Official Warning Positions (black) plotted every 12 hours (dots) COAMPS Prediction of Typhoon Jangmi Initial Time: 0000 UTC 26 September 2008 45 km grid is stationary, 15 and 5 km grids move with the TC COAMPS-TC forecast Jangmi intensification at 48h, but moved Jangmi slower and more northward than observed, keeping the system stronger than observed since the predicted track did not take Jangmi over land

  12. COAMPS-TC HighlightReal-Time Hurricane Irene Forecasts NWS Radar Composite 1148 UTC 27 August 2011 COAMPS-TC (36 h) • Impact: Realistic precipitation shield, structure and intensity forecasts • COAMPS-TC did very well for Intensity during 2011, especially for Irene

  13. First major WestPAC experiment since TCM93 First observations of a WestPAC TC life-cycle First systematic targeting operation in the WestPAC First four plane operation in a WestPAC TC First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over the western North Pacific flight operations in: First buoy drop in front of a WestPAC TC First msmts. to validate new and advanced satellite obs. of WP TCs First detailed (i.e., in situ aircraft, dual-doppler radar, dropsonde, lidar) observations of: Large scale environmental influences Tropical cyclone formation in the monsoon environment of the tropical WestPAC Structure changes during the initial tropical cyclone intensification First measurements to define the response of the outer wind structure to changes in intensity and eyewall replacement cycles Successful relay of research dropsondes to the ground and onto GTS in near real time TCS-08 Accomplishments

  14. ITOP 2010 Observations Resources

  15. Understanding and Predicting the Impact ofOutflow on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structure (“TCI-14”)An FY14 ONR Departmental Research InitiativeRonald J. Ferek and Daniel P. Eleuterio, 322MM13 December 2012

  16. TC Structure and Recent Research Programs Unexplored:Outflow structure, intensity, and variability, and relationships with hurricane intensity and structure ONR TCS08 NSF TPARC NOAA IFEX NASA GRIP NSF PREDICT ONR CBLAST ONR TCS-08 ONR ITOP Primary circulation Secondary Circulation NSF RAINEX Image courtesy of NASA

  17. Upper-Level Jet Outflow & Intensification Typhoon Roke Pre-Rapid Intensification 00 UTC 19 Sep 2011 Intensity = 65 kt 150-300 mb Divergence Roke Outflow Winds: 100-250 mb, 251-350 mb, 351-500 mb Roke • Outflow directed equatorward • No interaction between outflow and approaching upper-level jet • Weak upper-level divergence • Weak typhoon

  18. Upper-Level Jet Outflow & Intensification Typhoon Roke Rapid Intensification 00 UTC 20 Sep 2011 (+24h) Intensity = 115 kt Outflow 150-300 mb Divergence Roke Roke Winds: 100-250 mb, 251-350 mb, 351-500 mb • Outflow shifts poleward • Outflow couples with midlatitude jet • Upper-level divergence triples • Roke underwent Rapid Intensification, increased intensity by 50 kts in 24 hours Models (including COAMPS-TC) failed to capture this RI

  19. Opportunity: NASA HS3 Field Program 2012-2014 TWO Global Hawks will fly to sample the environment and inner-core • Environmental Payload: cloud/aerosol lidar, dropsondes, wind lidar, remote sounders • Over-storm Payload: HAMSR (multi-level water vapor), HIWRAP (surface and multi-level wind velocity and rain rate), HIRAD (surface wind speed, rain rate), dropsondes NASA Global Hawk at Wallops Global Hawk Ops Center during HS3 Advantages: long duration and high-altitude obs.

  20. HS3 Observations of Leslie’s Outflow at 150 mb Leslie Center X Cross Section 6 sondes

  21. HS3 Observations of Leslie’s Outflow 7 Sep 2012 1041-1111Z Black, Red, Blue and Pink lines: Global Hawk observed wind speed and temperature profiles along jet maximum from dropsondes Red line: Satellite wind speed vertical average Green line: COAMPS-TC model wind speed profile Solid black: Tropopause Dashed: Cirrus top / jet max Dotted: Cirrus cloud base Yellow shading: Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) domain

  22. Impact of HS3 Dropsondes for Nadine Intensity: Max. Wind Error (kts) Track Error (nm) No drops No drops HS3 drops HS3 drops Bias (dash) Intensity: Min. SLP Error (hPa) No drops HS3 drops • Dropsonde impact experiments performed for 19-28 Sep. (3 flights) • Red, with HS3 drops • Blue, No drops with synthetics • COAMPS-TC Intensity and Track skill are improved greatly through assimilation of HS3 Drops. Bias (dash)

  23. Summary • At ONR we try to focus initiatives on problems that advance the science and have impact (collaborate/leverage other agencies) • TC motion (academia, NASA, international collaborators, USAF) • Physics of the air-sea interface (academia, NOAA, NASA, USAF) • Storm-scale structure (academia, NSF, NOAA, USAF, international collaborators) • Interaction with the ocean (academia, NSF, international collaborators, USAF) • Strategy: increase understanding of the dynamic processes and represent them in models, exploit the results to improve prediction systems • Vertically integrated process from basic research to applied research to advanced development and transition to operations • Fruitful collaboration with NOAA’s HFIP • utilizing NOPP process for joint funding of a number of academic/Gov. lab partnership projects • Next initiative: Leverage the unprecedented opportunity to deploy two NASA Global Hawks to observe hurricane intensity, interactions between storms, outflow and larger-scale environment (academia, NASA, NOAA, USAF, NSF international collaborators)

  24. Questions?

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